Thursday, June 26, 2008

Window dress this!

I am gonna be brief here.

We certainly saw the blood on the Street today, the problem is that with DOW now solidly broke all the previous lows and SP500 poised to do the same, and still relatively low VIX, the blood shedding may be yet to run its course. There is no doubt that market is oversold on almost every time frame, however, without any conceivable catalyst and the out of ammunition Fed, the oversold condition alone won't produce any sizable or sustainable rebound. With that said, the market often does not accommodate the majority views, so what the market will do tomorrow is everyone's guess. Who knew, maybe big boys will do some serious window-dressing tomorrow/Monday as the month/quarter ends.

Since both long and short could be very dangerous undertaking at this stage, unless you are as sharp as Razor, or as experienced and ballsy as PCAGUY, or as fast as the wabbit, you might just hold your cash tight and enjoy the battle between bulls and bears.

Position update:
I currently have some BIDU calls (entered when it was just above 117) and some CTRP calls (entered when it was around 45.8), I might lighten both positions if market gaps and rally in the early going tomorrow.

One more thing: it is just unbelievable that the Fed engineered a double bottom with its massive rate cut and liquid injection, only to see not only the imminent demolish of the bottom, but the raging inflation that would cast a very long long shadow on the market for months to come. If I was big Ben, I will cry my eyes out tonight, seriously.

Short-the-rebound candidates: ASK, CF, GOOG, PCX, RIMM, AAPL.
Bottom fishing candidates: CLR, CRM, FSLR, MON, POT, SOHU, X.

Good luck all!

9 comments:

Doug said...

Wabbit: Greatly like the "Short-t...../Bottom f....." format incorporated today. Could you make it a standard daily feature? Thanks.

pcaguy said...

Art Cashin says the typical pattern after Thursday's drop is:
Tuesday July First will be capitulation day.
PCA GUY

razor said...

thanks for the mention wabbit...thoughts...guess what? Earnings start july 8 with aa and the market is bottoming out, uh huh, they do this every time...buy something...back later...

pcaguy said...

AKS:
Bot Aug calls.
AKS is being added to the S&P 500.
This is what drove MEE up parabolically for 8 days in a row.
OIH, MOS:
Sold calls.
POT:
Sold 1/3 position
PCA GUY

razor said...

The charts tell me steel is going to roll over, but they sure are loading the aks75c's today...

razor getting drunk in 4 hrs said...

Noteable today was the ol 11:00 reversal...if we were to hit 10750, that would look like the 3rd leg down from 07 and be the bottom for the year imo...the stock gods were extremely kind to me this week, I'm sure next week we go up, earnings will be stellar and the economy will be much better, have a great we Wabbit, Pca...

flyingwabbit said...

razor:

boy you are optimistic! and I am glad that you had a good week, now get loaded!

razor getting mashed in 2hrs said...

and here is the media spin, and how the economy will improve in just one week...."Consumer spending jumps as stimulus checks land"...

flyingwabbit said...

Doug:
Forgot to reply earlier, but I will do my best to incorporate that into my daily post.

best regards,