Monday, June 09, 2008

Another day, another old lesson, duh!

First, thanks to all who took the survey, I will talk about the survey results and my thoughts next weekend.

Position update:

I took a good slap on the face today for my last Friday's AAPL July 185 call position. I managed to cut the loss around 183.5 before Jobs gave the presentation, and later, scrambled a DT put trade when it snapped back near 184 and exited just above 179, and luckily even out the earlier loss and then some. However, last Friday's call entry was a terrible decision as it was NOT based on any technical analysis, but on some kind of "great idea" that supposedly reflecting my incredible insights and convictions. Folks, this is yet another my same old same mistake that almost always cost me dearly. Though I had not committed it for quite sometime, I am extremely disappointed and amazed how sometimes I could so effortlessly leave all my painful lessons behind in the heat of the actions. Disgusting stuff like this makes me wonder if I should just give the whole trading thing up for good.

Let me say something about AAPL while we are at it:


AAPL is at a very tricky point, another bearish candle and close below 180, a test of MA50 would be a given, and a test of MA200 or even the gap near 156 is not out of the question. On the other hand, if it manages to close the gap near 185.5 and closes above MA10 with a bullish candle, it may test 192 or even 200 before July 11. I will keep an eye on how it opens and behaves if it approaches 185/186 before deciding which way to go. Along with the new iPhone, there were also some business model changed announced today, and I wouldn't be surprised that big boys are figuring out the math today before move in/out tomorrow, we shall see. I wonder if you all feel bullish/bearish about AAPL right now.

Today, I was itching at pulling triggers on shorting ACI, MON, MOS, JCG, CF, and long BIDU, GS and MA. But I lost focus while choking on the sour apples. I will go through them again tomorrow.

As for the overall market, let me just say this: if I shorted before last Friday's plunge, I will not exit just yet, and since I did not, I will actively look for the short-the-rebound setup.

8 comments:

fortune8 said...

FXP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p88948875005

RazoR said...

Remember how the volumes just went away? I think the bigs sold off and will wait while depressing the market for awhile. I suspect they sold drys and the mm is playing around, but I'm salivating at 75 or less, also possible the mm is snookering folks today on aapl, twice volume yesterday dumping? we'll see, I'm hedged on aapl and V... Don't beat yourself up so much on aapl, it could've gone either way chartwise.

pcaguy said...

MOS
$144.06 52 week high
Bot - MTJSI at 10. July 145 PUTS
USO:
Closed puts at a profit.
ACAS:
Bot July $35 puts at $5.20
DRYS:
$82 down 6.27
Bot -DQRGR calls at $4.60
PCA GUY

flyingwabbit said...

fortune8:
what you trying to say here about FXP, I have actually monitoring FXI to see if I might go long in low 130's.

razor:
that was precisely the problem: I am not suppose to make a commitment if the chart points either direction.
I have been eyeing drys, trying hard not to jump the guy just yet. Are putting AAPL?

RazoR said...

Yes I'm long aapl common @182 with one 170 put left, sold the other yesterday when aapl gacked 8 points down. Long V @82 with a 75 put....Will buy a kicker at 75 for drys and leverage the house at 70...also lost 2 points on solf from friday, but it could have been 5 so i'm cool with that....

fortune8 said...

I use 4ema,8ema,21sma for signal. Look at the OBV rising on FXP.

Try this strategy out.

Buy on 4ema cross above 21sma and sell on 4ems cross below 21sma. If you want double confirmation, then add 8ema as well.

You won't end up selling too soon.

fortune8 said...

I use 4ema,8ema,21sma for signal. Look at the OBV rising on FXP.

Try this strategy out.

Buy on 4ema cross above 21sma and sell on 4ems cross below 21sma. If you want double confirmation, then add 8ema as well.

You won't end up selling too soon.

flyingwabbit said...

fortune8:
many thanks for sharing your war secret, I will definitely examine it.