Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Big Ben turns hawkish?!

When Big Ben turns hawkish, the real inflation picture is likely to be worse than most would imagine, and that casts a long shadow for the market in the months to come. In the meantime, bulls tried very hard to hang in there, and they might get some bounce tomorrow. I hope many energy/commodity names will move up in next few days so I can find better entry points, possibly use backspread puts as initial top catching strategy.

I bought AAPL July 185 calls this morning when it broke 183.5, and exited half near 186, while holding the rest for tomorrow. I did not keep all for tomorrow mostly because I am getting concerned that something bad might occur (just look at the charts of LEH and WM) that will drag the market down. I keep half of the position because even though it failed to close above MA10, it formed a nice bullish engulfing candle today. With any help from the overall market, I expect AAPL to test the 188-192 zone in the next day or two, at which time I might exit half of the remaining position, while leave the rest for a possible run to 200.

Also bought GS July 170 put around 169, but closed out for a small gain. This market is becoming very difficult for me to have any convictions.

9 comments:

fortune8 said...

Hindsight is 20/20.

Should have know better than to go bottom fishing in DRYS.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRYS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85226061694

Do you see the cross below 21sma?

pcaguy said...

I am long DRYS including buying calls this morning.
Do your charts tell you the bottom for DRYS ?
PCA GUY

flyingwabbit said...

pcaguy:
my ez for drys is 70-78 with stop just below 70, and IT=88, given the current market conditions, I will try to get as low as possible, such as around 75. good luck!

pcaguy said...

ANR:
Bot July 95 puts -ANRSS at $10.40
MEE:
Bot July 80 puts -MEESP at $8.80
MOS:
Bot July 145 puts -MTJSI at $7.8
AGU:
Bot July 100 puts -AGUST at $6.7
GS:
Bot July 165 calls -GPYGM at $9.35
DRYS:
Bot more July $90 calls at $3.40

PCAGUY

flyingwabbit said...

pcaguy:
I suppose that if one has a deep pocket like you, buying at current level should be profitable within the coming days.
I am still unsure that the market has found the intra-day bottom, and I am going to a bit more patient on bottom fishing: I am basically hoping that DOW will test 12000, NASDAQ tests 2410 and SP500 around 1325. we will see....

RazoR said...

Bought some drys @77.70 couldn't resist, still waiting for v puts to hit the zone...

pcaguy said...

Thanks Guys. I'm in deep trouble on DRYS right now. Bidding $3.20 on July 90 calls.
I should have looked closer at the DRYS charts.
Unlike OIH or GS once DRYS is set in a direction it tends to keep that direction for weeks. Not the best candidate for my overnight trading pattern.
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

DRYS:
Another $5+ gap down
Bot July 85 calls at $2.7
FSLR:
Bot 15 July 260 puts at $18
Sorry I sold my FSLR calls yesterday
FSLR at $265.49 up $12+
GS:
Sold -GPYGM calls for $1.64 profit
ISRG:
Sold -AXVGV calls for $1 profit
ACAS:
Sold -DQSSG puts for $1 profit
AGU:
Sold -AGUST puts for $1 profit
ANR:
Sold -ANRSS puts for $1.5 profit
MOS:
Sold -MTJSI puts for $1 profit
New Positions:
BEN:
Bot July 100 puts at $3.75
CMI:
Bot July $70 puts at $3.44
ABV:
Bot July $75 puts at $5.2
FDG:
Bot July 80 puts at $4.40
Still holding MEE July 80 puts about break even.
DRYS:
Bot July $85 calls at $2.7
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

AAPL:
Bot July $170 call at $12.8
PCA GUY