Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Born to be a day trader or just an idiot who never learns and will bite the dust soon?

So I said that I was going to quit DT last Friday.

Day 1 (Monday)
** no SW setups, no biggie.
** I even let a perfect DT setup in GS go (canceled the order right before it was about to hit because I remembered what I said on the Friday, it would've been a 1-2 grand winner).

Day 2 (Tuesday)
** The night before: planned swing short setups for MA around 300, and FCX around 125.
** Opening moments: MA gapped up, and acted exactly what I had expected and wanted to see, but the July300 puts had a spread of 50-70 cents, the cheaper version of wabbit took over, no entry.
** 10:05 am (EST): FCX setup materialized, bought 10 July125 puts when it recovered from the opening drop and stalled around 124.5. Planned to exit 8 contracts around 120/121, and leave the 2 run.
** 1:15 pm: Another perfect DT short pattern in GS as it rebounded toward 184, but no, I am no day trader! So proud of myself, you go, wabbit!
** 2:55 pm: FCX finally cracked, when it hesitated a bit around 122.7, I hit the sell button as if I had waited too long and I was desperate for some dough. I closed all with nearly $650 profit, woohoooo! But wait, what the (*&#$ was I doing? Did I just DT again? Holy $&#*(! it dropped more, oh my god, I could've doubled the profits, maybe more tomorrow. What was I thinking?!
** 3:30 pm: Heard my girl laughing, saying that there was not even a 5 min bullish engulfing candle and I was like a drunkard who could not even hold a $20 bill steady, wait, make that a $1 bill. Damn it!
** 5:30 pm: look at Razor, he just made another 13 points on DRYS, 13 freaking points! I wonder how many trash cans he had to destroy before he became what he is today!

A Question for Razor and PCAGUY:
which online brokerage you are using? Do they have a good option trading platform?

A Question for PCAGUY:
When there is a sizable spread in an option you want to get in, what do you normally do? Place an order around the mid point of the spread range, or just bite the bullet and hit the ask?

A Note to myself
Start looking for good online deals on trash cans you cheap idiot, you may need a lot of them. If they work out for Razor, they might do the same for you....

17 comments:

RazoR said...

I just use regular old etrade and medved quotetracker for realtime monitoring...you made $650 and you're questioning yourself? Jezuz relax and forget what you left on the table, happens to everybody!

flyingwabbit said...

razor:
relax my ass! dude! sure, made $650, but I am out of it, unlike you, you locked in about the same dollar amount profits in your latest drys trade, but you still got 3/4 position and you added hedges! Let's see: you have about 2600 paper profit and you took 1/4 off the table and let the 3/4 run with hedges, and me? I had $650, and I got out and done! see the difference? what really pisses me off is that I made the same mistakes about 5 times in the past week or two alone!! there is some deep shit inside of me, I tell you that...

fortune8 said...

wabbit, why did you sell?
You had Jul125 contract which gave you plenty of time. Are you scared? I get scared sometimes. Scated money don't win. Let the winners run and cut the losers short.

pcaguy said...

Hey Fellas,
Just a casual observation from a guy born in 1946.
At option expiration I have noticed that the Jersey Boys will run up their anointed stocks (oils, commodities, maybe GS) into option expiration Friday and carry it over to the following Tuesday.
Following this trend I am selling my successful puts trades today and raising cash.
My plan is (assuming we get good runups) to BUY PUTS Next Tuesday on the stocks they have run up this week into Friday's close.
Currently OIH and GS are on my radar and I am watching the biggest gainers list very closely today and tomorrow.
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

My option buying procedure:
Yesterday they ran GS up starting early in the day. Was around $179 early and closed around $183 with a peak at $185.25.
I started bidding for the July $175 put -GPYSO at a price BELOW the current bid.
My first cost was $5.35 on -GPYSO at the beginning of the day for 5 contracts = $2675. I put in orders throughout the day at 10 cents less each time for 5 contracts last cost was $4.20.
In the last hour of the trading day I recognized the Jersey Boys were gonna trap us shorts going into options expiration but I was already committed by then with 65 contracts around an average cost of $4.75 or so.
End of day say 2:45 NY time
I placed Orders to buy:
15 contracts at $4.10
20 contracts at 4
25 contracts at $3.9
35 contracts at $3.8
40 contracts at $3.7
All of these executed and the cheapest trades of the day were mine on July $175 puts. My average cost was about $4.15 at the end of the day on 195 contracts.
This morning when GS was down to about $182.20 I sold all 195 contracts at $4.60
This is risky but I knew that the Jersey Boys had let GS run down to $177 Wednesday morning for a few minutes or so and was praying to get that same break today, also.
I'm raising cash today and I am totally out of any position on DRYS. I closed all of my huge (was losing, became profitable) calls trades on DRYS on Tuesday morning, and then bought back in 65 DRYS calls yesterday. I cashed them out today.
Raising cash for Tuesday Puts is my best idea.
I will attempt not to put any positions on into expiration.
PCA GUY

razor said...

sold my drys puts fo .40 (pca makes me feel like an ant)
bought some solf at 20.7
still in drys, aapl
market is oversold, if they pull it to 11.8 load the boat...

pcaguy said...

razor,
you actually are a better trader than I.
Mine is much more risky whereas yours you only place small bets then exercise patience to make huge percentage gains.
On the recent DRYS fiasco I was down $100k at the worst point. Each day I had to keep buying a larger position of July calls. I got lucky on Tuesday and eventualy made $15+ K but I had accumulated 431 contracts over the 6 days or so I was in the trade. I bot 150 calls on 6/12 so this helped my average cost considerably because DRYS was between $70 and $72 that day.
Looking at STRA, LSTR, X, ICE, TS as puts trades for next Tuesday.
PCA GUY

flyingwabbit said...

fortune8:
you were right on the money, and that is basically the core of my problem: fear when should be hopeful and and hopeful when should be fearful.

PCAGUY:
thanks for sharing your execution method, I will learn from that. please also tell me what option trading firm you have been using, must be a very good one.

pcaguy said...

Fidelity Active Trader Pro.
I've been a FIDO customer for 20 years. There may be better.
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

I am no guru.
I have my setup on Active Trader Pro to default to buy 5 contracts. You know I might actually do better if I reset it to be 2 or 3 contracts. Because my system is to average my cost down to get in the trade and this might allow me to have less exposure when the trade goes against me.
Recently, I've done better by trading the out of the money trades that are low cost like $3 to $6. The advantage there is that a $5 up move in the stock is 140% of a $5 down move in the stock. So my risk/reward is better.
RIMM & NILE could be good PUTS trades for Tuesday, too.
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

Would anyone short MEE, FSLR, MOS in here ?
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

Its 2;30.
Please notice the run up of GS that is starting.
$184.76 right now. Was $181 earlier.
Tempting to put in some PUTS orders well below the ask.
Lets see if they can get it to $187 today.
PCA GUY

razor said...

Geez pca, the man with the most gold is the king...took a quick look, fslr has a nice gap at 250, but is oversold and could bust the shorts up thru 300...mee is rediculous parabolic overbought and mos is 80%overbought kind of ready to roll over...careful shorting here the market as a whole is oversold...

razor said...

just dumped another half position in drys for 12pts, afraid they take her down to fill 75 and buy calls, if they fill 87 I'll dump my 77's...decisions based on fear lol

pcaguy said...

I could not stand it. GS close was $186.93 up $4.16. I bought some July $180 -GPYSP puts at $4.41 average.
Because OIH and some of the other anointed stocks closed down I may not get to put on the heavy PUTS plan on Tuesday. Whatever they run up will be the ones I PUT.
Watch OIH tomorrow. It closed down $3.01 to $214.96 today. I think the Jersey Boys will run OIH over $221 tomorrow. Let's see if they do. If so then $223 on Tuesday and PUT CITY !
I'm going waterskiing tomorrow so may not trade after 8 am Oregon time.
PCA GUY

razor said...

Hey pca, if you're not wet yet...I read that options expiration is not a good day to buy options or rollover, that the premiums will be way less by Monday, is this trus as a rule?

pcaguy said...

Razor,

YES

PCA GUY