Sunday, October 26, 2008

Biding my time......

This whole thing is getting scarier by the day, and with all the uncertainties, it is the bulls who are hibernating. However, nature (or should I say the human nature) rules ultimately, by saying that I mean the bears will go hibernating, maybe sooner than you thought.

I flipped 1/3 of my retirement account (moved to money market since Oct. 2007) a couple of times between money market and Spartan 500 index in the last several days, netting just over 10% and moved back in last Thursday. May flip that out again mid this week. Will consider moving all in if the market could get a quick 10-20% down from here for a multi-week, possibly a year-end rally, we shall see.

After sitting tight for 4 days, I shorted OTM puts for X, WLT and MON last Friday, all with 1/3 position size, and may consider close out the positions in X and WLT tomorrow ahead of their ER. I probably won't aggressively short the OTM puts until we are through the election, which for some reasons, is making me really nervous.

Be careful out of there!

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Bouncing market, leaping wabbit!

Shorted a bunch of ISRG OCT140 and 135 puts this morning, and now looks like your wabbit will pock some decent profits tomorrow even if GoldmanSucks strikes again!

As the market bouncing around violently, booking quick profits is the only way you can play. I am still waiting for a new price low following this Monday's momentum low to really build up swing long positions. In the meantime, a quick short around MA10 or MA20 should work for most stocks, the key here is QUICK!

Good luck all!

Monday, October 13, 2008

Now, that's history!

Ok, it is official: history does repeat itself (from the 1930's crash), and people never change! Good thing that I made out fine and kicking, despite some sub-par executions last week AND today that burnt a big chunk of the expected profits. Closed all positions except the short WLT OCT25 puts, which I collect every penny of it.

The market rallied nicely today, but with volumes so light, the bulls will run out of steam as early as tomorrow. Unless you DT, now is the time to be a bit patient, long or short.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Is it time to not believe everything you know about human nature?

The insane market, whose decline was underestimated by about 10% on my side, and the **&#$&^ GoldmanSucks, who promptly downgraded FSLR, AKS and X this week, are leaving your wabbit in some hot water (not simmering yet). Had chance in each of past 3 days to get out with a couple grand of profits, but no thanks :P In the hindsight, I should've chosen shorting calls instead, but then again, not one foresaw a drop of this magnitude (and I know quite a few top traders).

More and more people are throwing in towels everyday, but my belief in human nature (driven by extreme emotions) is still in tact, though a bit shaken. I will get my IRA accounts ready shortly and there better be a real crash, soon!

Good luck all!

Monday, October 06, 2008

Steel balls!

Well, for almost 3 hrs, I thought my steel balls were going to be crushed by the bear claws :) Shorted OCT puts of X ($55), AKS (15), FSLR (125), WLT (25), and FCX (35), and did not cover. I did chicken out on AAPL, MA, DVN, MON, and APA, well, you just cannot win them all. The only question now is if I should lock in some profits tomorrow or hang in tough to let all options expire. Make no mistake, it is still a bear's country....

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Be greedy when everyone else is fearful!

All major indices are sitting around 3% above their major support levels, but weekly charts suggesting more trending down in next 2-4 weeks, and another crash of 10% is totally possible. Nonetheless, when the panic is thickening, and everyone else is fearful, it is time to get greedy. Considering the high IV and only 2 weeks left for OCT OE, I will continue focusing on shorting the puts of many near-death stocks (mainly in the broad commodity sectors). That strategy brought me some decent profits last week, and should offer more rewards. Too busy to write more, just let you know that my focus list includes the names like: AKS, FCX, X, ENER, WLT, JASO, APA, AAPL, BIDU, SQNM, DYRS, MA....

Control your risk and good luck!