Monday, June 23, 2008

Boiling point!

Today was a really boring day, well, maybe except the short few minutes in the opening when bulls' technical rebound attempt turned out to be nothing more than a premature ejaculation (sorry for not finding a better term). However, several noteworthy events did happen by the closing bell:

1. Following SP500/DOW, NASDAQ and QQQQ finally completed the 1-2-3 reversal on closing basis.

2. Both semi and retailer sectors broke and closed below their recent lows.

And of course, the financials continue rolling over.

Oil and related energy sectors (including coals), however, were stronger than I had expected. I sure hope that is not because too many players like me who are convinced of an imminent pullback here. But in any case, I still feel that those parabolic movements are about to end.

Trading Update:

1. SOHU: bought 1/2 position of July 75 puts when it was just below 76, may add another half between 78-80, with intra-day stop just above 81, closing stop above 80. Initial target=72.

2. OIH: bought a speculative July220 put position when it was around 222, might not be a good move here as it broke out into the close, but hey, it is a speculative position.

3. DVN: bought a 1/5 position of July120 put when it was around 122, stop just above recent high, initial target=118.

4. RIG: bought 1/5 position of July150 put when it was around 154, just like OIH, might be a bit early here. May add more in the range of 158-162. Intra-day stop just above 162, closing stop just above 160, initial target 150/152.

5. USO:
I look to initiate a small July110 put position tomorrow, especially if it gaps up at the open.

6. Coals: I plan to initiate some speculative put positions this week in the following names: ANR, JRCC, PCX and WLT.

Things will get very tricky tomorrow:
with market in oversold and FOMC decision/key ER from RIMM/MON ahead, bears probably are not eager to corner the wounded bulls here. On the other hand, while certainly not on their last breath, bulls simply don't have much left to mount a meaningful counter attack, all they can do right now is just hanging tough and hope to get a shot in the arm in next day or two, and they might just get it.

Tomorrow might be another boring day, but the energy will be building up and the boiling point will be near, hopefully, it won't be the wabbit who gets cooked and passed along as snacks to those crazed bulls and bears.


JUDGE2SOON said...

Do you know of any "mirror image" OPTIONS that follow DXD (Ultra short dow 30 pro shares) or DDM (reverse of DXD)?? Curious, as I play these on market movements and so far have done OK, but was looking for more "bang for my buck". Any suggestions?? Thanks
BTW, Right, a blood bath maybe in the cards today... stay tuned

flyingwabbit said...

well, folks, my infamous butter finger did me in again:
1. SOHU: closed puts when it hit 73, doh!
2. RIG: closed puts when it hit 152.5
3. DVN: closed puts when it hesitated near 120, doh!!!

I am eying BIDU July300 calls, entry zone=280-296, intraday stop below 280, closing stop below 296; also eying a speculative USO July110 puts around 112, hopefully it will hit it.

RazoR said...

That was too easy!, bought 4 drys80c@3.9, dumped 2@5 plus 50 common@75.6 since I was in the neighborhood...shorts better pray, can ya feel it?

flyingwabbit said...

sorry that I was unable to find the answer to your question. unless you have been trading extremely well, more "bang for your buck" might have unintended consequences, imho...