Friday, June 27, 2008

Drowning in the oil tsunami?

Considering the fact that oil broke yet another record and that the rising negative momentum and fear, bulls should be content that SP500's previous bottoms are intact by the end of today's close and that there were many many doji/hammer candles ending this free-fall week.

Trading update:

1. Bought puts on PCX when it spiked towards 153 and showed signs of intra-day topping, closed near the close when it spliced through 50, felt good about the plan/execution/profit.

2. CTRP July45 calls: about 20% profit and still holding, its action in the last several days have been quite bullish, or more properly, suggesting a tradable bottom to say the least. We will see if my sitting tight is going to be rewarded.

3. BIDU July330 calls: under water and still holding, feel that it will have a good jump if the market rallies on Monday. So far the paper loss bit a chuck off my profit for the week. I totally screwed up this trade:
** Got in unplanned AND when it was far from oversold on 60 min chart (that point would be today when it was around 306-308).
** Failed to re-adjust the bullish expectation especially in yesterday's near-crashing market, had 3 chances to book as much as $1000+ profits, did not do so, and turned it into a losing position and distraction.
The lesson here? when you bottom fish, especially in the current down-turn, make sure that the stocks are oversold both on daily AND 60 min charts, given that other conditions also met.

Will I learn my lessons? Well, I will see about that after a few rounds of beer/Junmai sake in a few hours...

I hope you all survived the week without much hurt!

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