Saturday, June 16, 2007

Swing trade calls -- June 16, 2007

On the market:

Looks like my previous predication of a top is falling apart. The strength and extent of the rebound exceeds a little bit of my expectation, and I must say that I am amazed to see how the market ignores the bad aspects while intensively focuses on the good aspects of any inflation report. However, I find it very hard to find the reasons that the inflation will stop rising, on the contrary, I think the non-core inflation, which the Wall Street has completely ignored so far, will gradually drive up the overall inflation, and that is only a matter of time. I still think the the cross over of 5% of the 10 year bond yield is a very significant event. The market will most likely consolidate at the current level until the Q2 report season kicks in in 3 weeks, which may dictate the next meaningful move of the major indices.

On what small players should do right now:

If you are not a trend decider, you must either follow the trend or just sit out. Don't fight the trend or you will be punished!

The bottom line is that the easy money on the long side has been made. Going long near the current high does not have a good risk/reward ratio, buying the dip use MA50 as stop reference is probably the safest way to approach the market right now.

1. AAPL: S1, entry zone=124-127, stop just above 127.7, IT=110.

2. ADBE: S1, entry zone=43.3-44.5, stop just above 45, IT=41.

3. AKAM: S2, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=46.5

4. COH: S1, entry zone=51-52, stop just above 52, IT=47.

5. ERTS: S1, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=49.

6. ILMN: L1, entry zone=36.3-38, stop just below 35.5, IT=42.

7. NUE: S1, entry zone=64.5-67, stop just above 67.5, IT=60.

8. NVDA: L1, entry zone=37-39, stop just below 37. IT=41

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.1-12.6, stop just below 12, IT=13.5. OR when it breaks and closes above 14.3, IT=16.8.

10. SNDA: L1, entry zone=27-27.6, stop just below 27, IT=30.6

12. SNDK: L1, entry zone=44-45.5, stop just below 44, IT=50.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Another dip before new high?

My answer to that question is NO for at least 3 months, why? because the 10 yr bond yield surged across the key 5% and closed at 5.1% today. Do I expect a rebound as the major indices approaching their key support zone near EMA50? very much so and I am looking for some buys. The bottom line is that the overall uptrend is yet to be reversed, but the precipitous drop of the major indices this week could signal the beginning of the end of the 10 month long strong up trend.

I will not be eager to establish swing shorts at this stage. I will be very patient for entering the long positions and will also cut the hold period for the long positions.

1. ADBE: L2, entry zone=41-42.2, stop just below 40.6, IT=43.2

2. BIDU: L2, entry zone=127-134, stop just below 127, IT=140.

3. CHAP: S3 on top, entry zone=70.5-71.2, stop just above 72, IT=65.

4. COH: S3 on top, entry zone=48.8-49.4, IDS just above 50, CS just above 49.5.

5. CRM: L2, entry zone=42.2-43.7, stop just below 42, IT=46.5

6. ESRX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 93.7, IDS just below 92, CS when closes below 93.7 with a bearish candle, IT=100.

7. LRCX: L2 if it spikes towards 49, stop just below 48.7, IT=52.

8. NUE: Quick L2 flip if it spikes to 60 or 63 with a very tight stop.

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.3-12.7, IT=13.6, stop around 12.

10. SINA: L1 when it spikes towards 36.5, IDS just below 36, CS just below EMA50 with a bearish candle.

11. SNDA: L2, entry zone=25.4-26, IT=28, stop just below 25.

12. SONS: L1 if it spikes towards 8.1, stop just below 8, IT=9.

13. TIF: Quick L2 flip if it spikes towards 47.7, IDS just below 47, IT=51

14. WLT: Quick L1 flip if it spikes towards 28, stop just below 27.5.

15. ARO: consider quick L2 flip if it spikes towards EMA50=43.5 or 42.5 use very tight stops.

16. USU: L2, entry zone 20.4-21.1, stop just below 20, IT=23

17. SGR: L1,if it spikes towards 36, use EMA50 as CS stop reference, IT=40.

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Swing trade calls -- June 2, 2007

On the market:

I sense a fundamental change in the collective market mentality in the past 2-3 weeks: the bullish attitude has been solidified to such that the action (buy-on-dip) starts to firmly reflect the attitude. It is also quite clear that there is still quite a long way to go before the bullishness reach a frantic/crazy level, therefore, as a whole, swing short should be avoided. The market is unmistakably bullish, but with the interest rates continue to climb (the 10 yr yield is poised to break the key 5% level), more explosive movement to the upside may not occur before some kind of consolidations. The less-than-impressive up volumes in recent days indicate that big boys are not eager to commit more nor to take profit at this stage. So what do we do for swing trades? Avoid swing short and be patient with swing longs--both entry and exit.

1. NM: L1, entry zone=10.3-10.6, CS=bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 10.

2. OI: L1, entry zone=31.8-33.6, CS=very bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 31.7.

3. PCU: L1, entry zone=88-92.5, stop just below 87.

4. SGR: L1, entry zone=39.4-40.8, stop when it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

5. USU: L2, entry zone=20.7-21.3, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle, IT=24.5.

6. ADBE: L1, entry zone=43-44.2, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle or below 42.

6. BIDU: L1, entry zone=134-136, cs=very bearish close below 134, IDS=129.

7. CHRW: L1, entry zone=52-53, IDS=just below 50, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=57.

8. CRM: L1, entry zone=44.3-46.5, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=50.

9. GOOG: L1, entry zone=486-492 OR when it breaks 515.

10. RACK: L1, entry zone=11.5-12.1, stop just below 11.5, IT=EMA50=13.6, next target around 16.

10. SINA: L1, entry zone=38-38.8, stop if it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

11. TXN: L1, entry zone=34.5-35.5, IT=37, CS just below 34.5, IDS just below EMA10.