Sunday, January 27, 2008

Weekly Trading Calls -- Jan 27, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for Next Week

As I mentioned in my “Weekend Notes on the Market”, I feel that the market is likely to trend up leading to Wed FOMC rate decision, which along with a few other key data/reports, will determine the extent of the on-going rebound. I expect another week of huge volatility, and to avoid the whipsaw, the soundest strategy is to be patient and act only on setups that have excellent r/r ratios.

1. AAPL – From the apple of bulls’ eye to the apple of bears’ eye?
The fallout of the disappointing outlook continued just as I predicted in my last week’s analysis.
Weekly: 4th straight losing week on heavy and rising volume, negative momentum rising rapidly, extremely bearish candles point to further near-term loss, however, long-term MA as short-term MA formation are still in uptrend postures, not quite oversold yet.
Daily: 4 straight losing day but volumes declined substantially in the past 3 sessions, negative momentum continues to rise, in oversold conditions;
** DT/SW-S2 if it spikes towards 138/140, IDS just above MA200 (near 145), CS just above 140. For DT, stop just above 141.
** DT/SW-L3 if it spikes towards 110 with a stop just below, IT=120, r/r=2:8

2. BIDU
Weekly: the 3 week decline was halted, but a classical thrusting candle formation seem to favor the on-going down trend; negative momentum continues to rise, long-term trend still solidly up
Daily: A solid successful test of MA200, negative momentum continues to diminishing; oversold rebound clearly on the way, notably stronger than other big tech names, closed above MA10 around the key S/R level around 300 on Friday, seller presence clearly seen around key R zone from 320-330. Next week’s GOOG ER will have a big impact on BIDU’s movement.
** SW-S2, entry zone 345-350, IDS just above 360, CS just above MA50, IT=320, r/r=18:28
** SW-L2, entry zone 240-246, IDS just below 237, CS below MA200, IT=280, r/r=7:35

3. DRYS
Weekly: only the 3rd up week since topping out in late Oct’07 on substantially light volume, negative momentum stalled, in oversold;
Daily: negative momentum dissipating, oversold rebound on solid footing, but down-trend still firmly in place.
** DT/SW-S2 if it spikes towards MA200+EMA30 (around 66.3)/70, IDS just above 71, CS around 70, IT=58,
DT/SW-S1 if it spikes towards MA50 (around 75.5), IDS just above 80, CS at MA50, IT=MA200.

4. EDU
Weekly: 2nd week with extreme volume but minor loss, negative momentum on the rise,
Daily: oversold rebound on the way, huge volatility
** DT/SW-S1, entry zone 66-70, stop just above 72, IT=60

5. FSLR
Weekly: 5th straight losing week on heavy and increasing volume, negative momentum on the rise
Daily: consolidating between 143 and 186 in the past 6 sessions, tepid oversold rebound
** DT: L2 if it spikes towards 143, IDS just below 140, IT=166
** DT/SW-L1 if it spikes towards MA200 (131.4 now), stop just below 130, IT=148
** DT-S2 if it spikes towards 200, stop just above 202, IT=186
** DT/SW-S1 if it spikes towards 220-225, IDS just above MA50 (225.2), IT=200.

6. GOOG – On the verge of long-term trend reversal?
It’s ER on Jan. 31 may have a huge impact on its long-term trend.
Weekly: 4th straight losing week on steadily increasing volume and negative momentum, but still long term trend still intact
Daily: triple-top trend reversal in full swing, only 4 up sessions (all on much lighter volumes) since Jan. 2; signs of big-boy jumping the ship; signs of bad ER coming.
** DT-S3 if it spikes towards 600 with a stop above, IT=580
** Speculative SW-S3 if there is an immediate post ER spiking in AH towards 620-640, stop just above 640, IT=560

7. GS
Weekly: the well defined down-trend channel in tact, but both stochastic and RSI flashing the reversal signals of the ongoing trend; negative momentum stalling
Daily: classical down-trend channeling, evident bullish divergences in MACD histograms
** DT/SW-L2 if it spikes towards 185 with stop below, IT=198
** SW-L1, entry zone 170-175, stop just below 170, IT=200.

8. ISRG
Weekly: uptrend flattening, negative momentum on the rise,
Daily: consolidation mostly between 250-280 in over 2 weeks as all are waiting for the Jan. 31 ER, the following calls are ONLY for the Jan. 31 AH immediate reactions following the ER:
** speculative S2, entry zone 320-340, stop just above 340, IT=300
** speculative L1, if there is an initial spiking down towards 200 or MA200 (near 220), stop just below those levels, IT=230.

9. MOS
Weekly: the uptrend continues following a classical bullish Three-line Strike candle formation.
Daily: parabolic both ways, huge volatility, clear strong uptrender
** CTT between 70/80 and 100/110 with stops just across the boundaries; bias is bullish, don’t trade the mid-range.

10. POT
Technical picture very similar to that of MOS, but a bit weaker than MOS.
** CTT between 150 and 115, stop just above 152 and below 108.

11. RIMM
Weekly: the 4 week slide halted, negative momentum un-abating, oversold, overall trend still up
Daily: successful test of MA200, oversold rebound on the way,
** CTT between 80 and MA50 (at 104.7 now) with tight stops, bias slightly bearish, don’t trade the mid-range

12. SPWR
Weekly: extreme and all-time high volume driven by the latest ER, negative momentum on the rise; extremely bearish candles in the recent weeks, approaching oversold
Daily: the recent slide was capitulated by the post ER high volume move, signs of over-sold rebound, negative momentum abating,
** CTT between 60 and MA200 (83.5)/90, don’t trade mid-range, bearish bias.

13. STP
Technical picture similar to that of SPWR
** CTT: between 46 and 58/65/MA50, don’t trade ranges in between, bearish bias

14. WFR
Weekly: bullish piecing candle formation, solid uptrender, but negative momentum developing
Daily: selling on good ER on Friday, but indicators mostly favor short-term moving up. In danger of developing head-and-shoulder pattern.
** DT/SW-L3 if it spikes towards 68.5/70, stop just below, IT=80,
** SW-L2 if it spikes towards MA200 (64.8 now), stop just below 63, IT=70

15. X

Weekly: it hardly budged in last week’s turmoil, clear up-trend,
Daily: the higher-low and high-higher pattern intact, indicators favor further upside movement,
ER: On Jan. 29, with conference calls at 3 pm
** Chart wise, it feels like any weakness immediately follow ER may represent a good buy opportunity, especially in the range of 91-96.5 with a stop just below 90. Keep an eye on 104 where MA50 and MA200 will converge.

5 comments:

firecs said...

much appreciate to your post

razor said...

sold half position pot 137 st at 129.50 then got stopped out damn!

flyingwabbit said...

hmm, razor, I thought the execution was impressive with an excellent balance between risk and profit management!! I wish I was half close to what did you to here. keep it on!

razor said...

Thanks, did you short fslr 180 per your setup? I grabbed intc at 19.7 (trying to play it for a 22.5 gap fill, will take forever)I also have a core position of etfc at 2.50 and will skim trade on top and suffer with it until 8 gap fill, suffer like i did with eln i hate these trades slow but very profitable.

qiqiapr said...

short pot again @138