Sunday, January 27, 2008

Weekly Trading Calls -- Jan 27, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for Next Week

As I mentioned in my “Weekend Notes on the Market”, I feel that the market is likely to trend up leading to Wed FOMC rate decision, which along with a few other key data/reports, will determine the extent of the on-going rebound. I expect another week of huge volatility, and to avoid the whipsaw, the soundest strategy is to be patient and act only on setups that have excellent r/r ratios.

1. AAPL – From the apple of bulls’ eye to the apple of bears’ eye?
The fallout of the disappointing outlook continued just as I predicted in my last week’s analysis.
Weekly: 4th straight losing week on heavy and rising volume, negative momentum rising rapidly, extremely bearish candles point to further near-term loss, however, long-term MA as short-term MA formation are still in uptrend postures, not quite oversold yet.
Daily: 4 straight losing day but volumes declined substantially in the past 3 sessions, negative momentum continues to rise, in oversold conditions;
** DT/SW-S2 if it spikes towards 138/140, IDS just above MA200 (near 145), CS just above 140. For DT, stop just above 141.
** DT/SW-L3 if it spikes towards 110 with a stop just below, IT=120, r/r=2:8

Weekly: the 3 week decline was halted, but a classical thrusting candle formation seem to favor the on-going down trend; negative momentum continues to rise, long-term trend still solidly up
Daily: A solid successful test of MA200, negative momentum continues to diminishing; oversold rebound clearly on the way, notably stronger than other big tech names, closed above MA10 around the key S/R level around 300 on Friday, seller presence clearly seen around key R zone from 320-330. Next week’s GOOG ER will have a big impact on BIDU’s movement.
** SW-S2, entry zone 345-350, IDS just above 360, CS just above MA50, IT=320, r/r=18:28
** SW-L2, entry zone 240-246, IDS just below 237, CS below MA200, IT=280, r/r=7:35

Weekly: only the 3rd up week since topping out in late Oct’07 on substantially light volume, negative momentum stalled, in oversold;
Daily: negative momentum dissipating, oversold rebound on solid footing, but down-trend still firmly in place.
** DT/SW-S2 if it spikes towards MA200+EMA30 (around 66.3)/70, IDS just above 71, CS around 70, IT=58,
DT/SW-S1 if it spikes towards MA50 (around 75.5), IDS just above 80, CS at MA50, IT=MA200.

4. EDU
Weekly: 2nd week with extreme volume but minor loss, negative momentum on the rise,
Daily: oversold rebound on the way, huge volatility
** DT/SW-S1, entry zone 66-70, stop just above 72, IT=60

Weekly: 5th straight losing week on heavy and increasing volume, negative momentum on the rise
Daily: consolidating between 143 and 186 in the past 6 sessions, tepid oversold rebound
** DT: L2 if it spikes towards 143, IDS just below 140, IT=166
** DT/SW-L1 if it spikes towards MA200 (131.4 now), stop just below 130, IT=148
** DT-S2 if it spikes towards 200, stop just above 202, IT=186
** DT/SW-S1 if it spikes towards 220-225, IDS just above MA50 (225.2), IT=200.

6. GOOG – On the verge of long-term trend reversal?
It’s ER on Jan. 31 may have a huge impact on its long-term trend.
Weekly: 4th straight losing week on steadily increasing volume and negative momentum, but still long term trend still intact
Daily: triple-top trend reversal in full swing, only 4 up sessions (all on much lighter volumes) since Jan. 2; signs of big-boy jumping the ship; signs of bad ER coming.
** DT-S3 if it spikes towards 600 with a stop above, IT=580
** Speculative SW-S3 if there is an immediate post ER spiking in AH towards 620-640, stop just above 640, IT=560

7. GS
Weekly: the well defined down-trend channel in tact, but both stochastic and RSI flashing the reversal signals of the ongoing trend; negative momentum stalling
Daily: classical down-trend channeling, evident bullish divergences in MACD histograms
** DT/SW-L2 if it spikes towards 185 with stop below, IT=198
** SW-L1, entry zone 170-175, stop just below 170, IT=200.

Weekly: uptrend flattening, negative momentum on the rise,
Daily: consolidation mostly between 250-280 in over 2 weeks as all are waiting for the Jan. 31 ER, the following calls are ONLY for the Jan. 31 AH immediate reactions following the ER:
** speculative S2, entry zone 320-340, stop just above 340, IT=300
** speculative L1, if there is an initial spiking down towards 200 or MA200 (near 220), stop just below those levels, IT=230.

9. MOS
Weekly: the uptrend continues following a classical bullish Three-line Strike candle formation.
Daily: parabolic both ways, huge volatility, clear strong uptrender
** CTT between 70/80 and 100/110 with stops just across the boundaries; bias is bullish, don’t trade the mid-range.

10. POT
Technical picture very similar to that of MOS, but a bit weaker than MOS.
** CTT between 150 and 115, stop just above 152 and below 108.

11. RIMM
Weekly: the 4 week slide halted, negative momentum un-abating, oversold, overall trend still up
Daily: successful test of MA200, oversold rebound on the way,
** CTT between 80 and MA50 (at 104.7 now) with tight stops, bias slightly bearish, don’t trade the mid-range

12. SPWR
Weekly: extreme and all-time high volume driven by the latest ER, negative momentum on the rise; extremely bearish candles in the recent weeks, approaching oversold
Daily: the recent slide was capitulated by the post ER high volume move, signs of over-sold rebound, negative momentum abating,
** CTT between 60 and MA200 (83.5)/90, don’t trade mid-range, bearish bias.

13. STP
Technical picture similar to that of SPWR
** CTT: between 46 and 58/65/MA50, don’t trade ranges in between, bearish bias

14. WFR
Weekly: bullish piecing candle formation, solid uptrender, but negative momentum developing
Daily: selling on good ER on Friday, but indicators mostly favor short-term moving up. In danger of developing head-and-shoulder pattern.
** DT/SW-L3 if it spikes towards 68.5/70, stop just below, IT=80,
** SW-L2 if it spikes towards MA200 (64.8 now), stop just below 63, IT=70

15. X

Weekly: it hardly budged in last week’s turmoil, clear up-trend,
Daily: the higher-low and high-higher pattern intact, indicators favor further upside movement,
ER: On Jan. 29, with conference calls at 3 pm
** Chart wise, it feels like any weakness immediately follow ER may represent a good buy opportunity, especially in the range of 91-96.5 with a stop just below 90. Keep an eye on 104 where MA50 and MA200 will converge.


firecs said...

much appreciate to your post

razor said...

sold half position pot 137 st at 129.50 then got stopped out damn!

flyingwabbit said...

hmm, razor, I thought the execution was impressive with an excellent balance between risk and profit management!! I wish I was half close to what did you to here. keep it on!

razor said...

Thanks, did you short fslr 180 per your setup? I grabbed intc at 19.7 (trying to play it for a 22.5 gap fill, will take forever)I also have a core position of etfc at 2.50 and will skim trade on top and suffer with it until 8 gap fill, suffer like i did with eln i hate these trades slow but very profitable.

qiqiapr said...

short pot again @138