Monday, January 28, 2008

Tuesday Real-Time Actions

Not a whole lot of setups as everyone tries to position for the FOMC decision on Weds. I might take a long position in COF if it opens down below 49 due to AXP (SW-L2, entryzone48-48.8, stop just below 48, if it breaks 50, hold for 54 or FOMC whichever comes first). Good luck and good trading!

21 comments:

razor said...

sold 250 intc(19.7)@20.6
sold 1000 etfc(2.50)@ 4.17!
thank God I covered on pot...

razor said...

in wfr at 74.88 can't buy fslr on principle holy smokes i'm cryin

flyingwabbit said...

Razor
good trades. what is that principle that prevented you from going long on fslr and then made you crying?

Got 2 chances to get in cof around 50, chickened out, oh well....

firecs said...

Is it a good idea to short COF at 52-53?

razor said...

nice call on cof...i will only buy fslr on a plunge the pe is 150 i can't justify the value of solar stocks but damn are they money!

flyingwabbit said...

razor, that is a very interesting principle, something I will think more about.

firec: not a good idea to short cof right now, you might take a quick CTT-DT S3 if it spikes towards 54, but really should wait for its rebounding to run the course. besides, should we all just sit tight until after tomorrow 2:15 pm? :)

qiqiapr said...

thank you wabbit and razor for your comments yesterday. I am keeping a close stop on ma, and cmg.

the market is hard to follow. What will they do after fomc meeting?

I am catching the knife on aaple here @ 129.7. Bless me

razor said...

qiqiapr I would not long aapl right now, if you notice its "sulking" underperforming every rally, leaves me to believe its going down to maybe 110.
Wabbit i figure if i make a mistake with a stock the value must be correct, a mistake on fslr and your down 20 points in no time, thats why i'm playing intc, a horrible donkey, but was beat to hell before the market drop so i feel secure making big bets.
Still own 1000 etfc@250 and 250 intc@19.7 if the market drops i can stop without loss, if we rally i am long enough to profit, good luck everybody.

Anonymous said...

Hi, FlyingWabbit, I would like to ask your input today's BIDU. Down 7% without big volume, is this only because of the "downgrade" by analyst? or MM trying to shake weak hands out? I caught a falling knife at 278 and don't know what my stop loss would be at this moment. Any input would be highly appreciated.

Thanks!

-leo

flyingwabbit said...

qiqiapr:

razor is absolute right, why long AAPL now? I have been making booze money on it from the short side. if you just have to long, take a shot when it spikes towards 126 with a stop just below.. BTW, when you feel like a "bless me" is needed after entering a position, it tells you that you probably act not on the conviction but try-luck mentality, which is no good.

razor:
I really like your reasoning!

flyingwabbit said...

anon 2:12 pm
the down-grade certainly contributed to the fall, but I feel the fear of a goog ER bomb is real here. I am not sure if you are DT or SW, but I would stop if it either exceeds my max loss limit or breaks today's low. if you are still not sure, try this: look carefully at the bidu chart and ask yourself this question: if you did not have a position right now, would you rather short or long? If you rather short, take a loss and close the long position.

best luck!

Anonymous said...

Thank you! I out BIDU at 2 point loss. I decide to watch for a better entry point to either short or long. You are definitely right, the possible bad ER from GOOG could have a big impact on BIDU. I'm 80% cash now and just watching. As always, thanks for sharing your thoughts!

-leo

razor said...

Anon you owe wabbit a beer, bidu now down 12pts from your long...yahoo er bomb lol bidu and goog in a bad mood today.

flyingwabbit said...

that was close! shorted YHOO in AH at 19.59, stopped out at 19.71, reshorted at 19.59, and finally chickened out and covered at 19.21! I know it is going to look stupid.

Anonymous said...

I don't owe wabbit A beer, I owe him a truck of beer. LOL.


-leo

flyingwabbit said...

Leo:
just for your info, I would rather to have one samuel smith than a truck of the king of beer or some shit like that:)

Razor:
See my execution here :( have you ever had such problem b4(could not let the winner run)? how did you overcome it? If I keep doing this, I might just rename my blog to flyingdonkey, wait, maybe FlyingAss, yeah, that is it!

razor said...

Well you need to relax, there are 4 ways to make money and 100 ways to lose. You are highly technical and have good ideas, but we all get kicked at some point...Here's some of my rules...
1. Don't play a stock on earnings day. Buy the dip, short the gap, but take time after to figure it.
2. Don't daytrade, try short term investing, in other words make your play with conviction, understanding in time it will go the direction you want, or bail.
3. Play established moneymaking Stocks that funds support with reasonable volume. This way you have a better chance of recouping a lost trade by waiting, funds have money and time. Look how long it took to take eln from 4 to 26. If you bought 1000 at 4 and did nothing for two years would you be better off? Not exciting, but profitable.
4. I realize in this market we are scalping due to volitility but bigger money is made by buying a crapload of a winner and waiting, plus its less commissions spent. I don't know what the winners are yet so my goal is to make some gains but get the hell out because I don't trust the market. AAPL was easy money last year but isn't so sexy now, the new tech is manure lol.
5. I use simple charts and key on oversold/overbought conditions, i don't even know what a doji star is lol. I watch the behavior of the stock and check its options and try to decipher the news on it.
6. I really don't care what the market or the fed does, I am mostly long because the mutual funds have to be and thats support. If we go down, better prices, we go up, hopefully I have a long kicker or just buy on the momo...hope that helps...

flyingwabbit said...

razor:
Thanks a lot for sharing your rules, #2 is what I really want to do but yet to stick to, #3 and #6 are what I have not really given much thoughts about b4. Many great points there, really appreciate it!

razor said...

7. Don't listen to me i could be wrong!
8. Don't put your eggs in one basket, diversify...bullshit! Can you imagine how much you would have lot if you held 5 of Cramers picks while the dow plunged? Stay light in case you have to bail, if the dow penetrates the upper channel of the downtrend, invest.
9. Cramer says buy a position, and if it goes down buy more, they call this dollar cost averaging, i never do this, its just a fancy way to tell yourself you are not losing on the trade! I know a guy who lost 50k doing this, the stock is now .73, his wife is frowning.
10. Here is my favorite setup example: Bought 2000 etfc at 2.50, bad story stock, gap at 8. after just 12 days it hit 4.17 so i gaurenteed myself profit and sold half my core. If it comes back I will buy more or let it ride. If it goes up i try to maintain the core, if down i can sell all at zero loss.

Anonymous said...

Well said! Razor, Wabbit. Thanks for sharing your thought. Less is more, slow means fast. bloody lesson learned during past 3 month.

Best luck to you all!

Leo

Yuriy said...

So guys, what are your picks for tomorrow?