Weekly Trading Calls -- Jan. 14-18, 2008

Please refer to my earlier posts on "Next Week's Overall Trading Strategy and consideration of rising volatility" and "Weekend Analysis on the Market".

A. Buy-at-bottom or CTT setups

1. AAPL
Held solid support around 170, but will next week's MacWorld event trigger a pre-Q report bull run to a new high or the decline on the heavy volumes signaling the start of the end of this long up trend?
Weekly: still a clear uptrender, but momentum became negative for the first time in 3 months with volume at 1 year high, indicators mostly favor more downside movement.
Daily: 5 losing sessions in the last 6 days, all on heavy volumes, downside momentum stalled as the support around 170 withstood multiple testing; stochastic points to oversold rebound.
** CTT when it spikes towards 169/170 or 182/183 use 168/184 as stop, IT near the opposite end of the 170/182 trading range. Don't trade the middle range.
** S3 if it breaks 168/169 on good volume, stop just above 170, IT=161.
** L3 if it spikes towards 160, stop just below 158, IT=168.

2. AKS
Long uptrend in reversal, but money still can be made from both sides
Weekly: downside momentum increasing, indicators point to more downside
Daily: broke down MA200 and failed to reclaim it, moving averages in clear downtrend formation, stochastic points to oversold rebound; key support at 36 held,
** L2 if it spikes towards 32 use a tight stop, IT=36
** S2, entry zone 40-42, IDS just above MA50, IT=36,

3. AMZN
On the verge of trend reversal?
Weekly: A big down week on above average volume, in danger of forming a double top with plenty of bearish divergences, but overall it is still a clear uptrender.
Daily: triple top formation in process; negative momentum on the rise, bearish moving averages bow tie formation in process, approaching oversold conditions
** L1 if it spikes towards MA200 around 76.5, IDS just below 75, CS just below MA200, IT=81.

4. BIDU
Weekly: a sizable losing week on rising volume, in danger of forming a double top with plenty of bearish divergences, but overall it is still a clear uptrender.
Daily: rising negative momentum, bearish moving averages bow tie formation in process, oversold conditions,
** L2 if it spikes towards 300, IDS around 295, CS around 300, IT=330.

4. CME
Weekly: a hammer candle formation on very heavy volume, momentum turning negative, most indicators favor more downside
Daily: oversold rebound well on the way
** CTT between 575 and 650/MA50 with a $5 stop.
** S2 on any bearish-engulfing candle from this point further with stop just above the high of the previous day.

5. CRM
refer to "last week's trading calls"
** L1 if it spikes towards 50, stop just below, IT=57

6. CTRP
Refer to "last week's trading calls"
** L2 if it spikes towards 48 with a stop just below, IT=54.
** L1 if it spikes towards MA200, IDS just below 45, CS below MA200, IT=54.

7. DRI
Will this be the exception of oversold rebound?
weekly: another high volume sell-off week pushes it deeper into oversold region, the volume and the Black Marubozu candle formation point to more downside movement in the near future.
** Daily: strong bearish movement with signs of abating negative momentum, in oversold conditions for a while now.
** Speculative L2 if it spikes towards 18/20, IDS below 18, CS below 19, IT=25.

8. FSLR
Parabolic, up AND down?
Weekly: the evening star formation gets following through with a big down week on heavy volume, indicators favor more downside
Daily: negative momentum on the rise, bearish moving averages bow tie formation in process, approaching oversold conditions,
** L2 if it spikes towards 200 with a 2 point stop, IT=220.
** speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 255, IDS just above 260, IT=200.

9. GRMN
Pinpoint your way down?
Weekly: spiking volume and heavy losses extending the losing week streak to 5 in a roll now, negative momentum increasing, approaching oversold
Daily: solid transformation of a long up trend, and analysts sure know the perfect timing for down/up grade;unabated negative momentum, but oversold rebound may be on the way.
** S2 if it spikes towards 80 with a tight stop, IT=75.
** S1 if it spikes towards MA200, IDS just above 90.
** speculative L2 if it spikes towards 60, stop just below, IT=70.

10. HMIN
Weekly: a big down week but volume is low, more immediate downside likely, approaching oversold
Daily: downside move accelerating, in oversold
** L3 if it spikes towards 28, CS around 28, IDS around 27.
** L1 when a bullish engulfing candle forms here, IT=32

11. ISRG
can an analyst change its long running uptrend?
Weekly: A big losing week on high volume resulting from an analyst downgrade; momentum turns negative for for first time in nearly a year; bearish divergences continue to develop, indicators point to more down side movement in the near future
Daily: a head-and-shoulder pattern in the working; unabated negative momentum, bearish bow tie moving averages formation in process, in oversold conditions,closed in the key support zone 258/265
** S2 if it spikes towards 288/300, IDS just above MA50, IT=265
** L2 if it spikes towards 235, IDS just below 230, CS around 230, IT=260
** L1 if it spikes towards 220, IDS just below MA200, CS below 220, IT=260.

12. MA
The subprime mess finally caught this high roller.
Weekly: a big losing week on very heavy volume, extending losing streak to 4 weeks, big bearish candle and other indicators favor further sliding
Daily: last Friday's high volume drop extended losing streak to 8 days!, increasing negative momentum, bearish bow tie moving averages formation in process
** L3 if it spikes towards 170, stop just below, IT=185
** L2 if it spikes towards 160, IDS just below MA200, CS around 160, IT=185
** S2 if it spikes towards MA50, IDS just above 200, CS just above MA50, IT=180

13. RIG
Weekly: a clear and strong uptrender, diminishing positive momentum, candle formation and indicators point to more near term decline
Daily: 7 losing sessions in the past 8 push it near oversold, negative momentum rising.
** L2 if it spikes towards MA50(currently near 133), IDS just below 130, CS just below MA50, IT=145.
** L1 whenever a bullish engulfing candle forms in the coming days, IT=145

14. RIMM
Trend reversal confirmed?
Weekly: a big down week on high volume, negative momentum continues to rise, indicators favor more downside movement
Daily: broke and closed below key support around 95, confirming the reversal of the long up trend, in oversold conditions
** S3 if it spikes towards MA10, IDS just above 105, IT=95
** S1 if it spikes towards MA50/110, IDS/CS just above, IT=95,
** L2 if it spikes towards 85 use MA200 as stop reference, IT=95.

15. SGR
Weekly: highest volume in 18 months failed to push it down much, downside momentum stalled, still a uptrender
Daily: strong support zone from 54-57, indicators mildly bearish
** L3 if it spikes towards 55, stop just below 54, IT=MA50
** L2 if if spikes towards 52, stop just below MA200/51.8, IT=MA50/60.

16. SOHU
Weekly: 5th straight losing week on relatively light volumes, momentum turns to negative for the first time since last summer, indicators favor more downside movement, uptrend still intact; noticeably stronger than its peers such as SINA
Daily: low volume slow bleeding continues, signs of firming up near key support around 47, oversold rebound signs.
** L3, entry zone 47-48, stop just below 47, IT=50
** L2 if it spikes down towards 40/42, stop just below 39, IT=47

B. Short Setups

1. BSC
Weekly: a hammer candle formation on very heavy volume plus extreme oversold conditions translate to a strong technical rebound,
Daily: rebound well on the way, but the steep down trend questions the possible v bottom.
** S2 if it spikes toward 90, IDS/CS just above MA50, IT=82.
** S1, entry zone 99-104, stop just above 105, IT=90

2. CMG
If the restaurant sector is doomed, it is only a matter of time before this goes down hard.
Weekly: second down week as the volume rose, indicators favor more downside
Daily: unabated negative momentum, signs of oversold rebound on the way.
** S1 if it spikes towards MA50, CS just above MA50, IDS just above 135, IT=MA200

3. DRYS
Boom to bust, just like that!
Weekly: a week of heavy loss and now under MA200, in oversold, but so what?
Daily: down trend in firm place but some oversold rebound may come
** S3 if it spikes towards 70, CS just above 70, IT=60.
** S2 on any bearish engulfing candle formation along the rebound.

4. GS
refer to analysis on BSC. keep in mind that GS is the strongest in this sector.
** S2 if it spikes towards 208 with a stop just above 210
** S1 if it spikes towards MA200/MA50 use a tight stop, IT=185

5. STP
The end of a parabolic up trend?
Weekly: a huge down week on heaviest weekly volume EVER, the huge volume+huge black candle may be indicative of fundamental changes of perspectives by the big institution holders, indicators favor more slide
Daily: 4 high volumes losing session in the past week, negative momentum continues to rise, in oversold,
** S2 if it spikes towards MA50/75, IDS just above 76, CS above MA50 with a bullish candle, IT=56.
** L3 if it spikes towards 55, IDS just below 53, IT=70.

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