Weekly Trading Calls -- March 9, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for Next Week

As I mentioned in my “Weekend Notes on the Market”, with the market now resuming its primary trend, the best SW should be along the direction of the primary trend. Buy-at-bottom setups can still be entertained for the stocks with strong support nearby, but profits should be taken quickly and holding time should be reduced to DT or overnight play.

1. AAPL
Weekly: negative momentum abating for the 3rd straight week as it remains range-bound; continues to linger in the oversold area without much signs of imminent rebound; technical picture overall mildly bearish.
Daily: momentum positive but stalled, indicators mixed and overall neutral for the near-term outlook
** CTT between 115/118 and 130/132, don’t trade the mid-range for SW.
** Go along with the break-out if it closes either above 131 on a bullish candle (IT=140) or below 116 on a bearish candle (IT=110).

2. AMZN
Weekly: on a 10 week losing streak with volumes on the rise for 3rd week; negative momentum high and still rising; both Stochastic and RSI(2) indicating deep oversold conditions but no signs of turn around yet; a spinning candle suggesting bears/bulls in-balance;
Daily: candle formations show short-term bottoming attempt (confirmed by the volume pattern); other indicators still mildly bearish for the near term.
** SW-L3, EZ=61-63, IDS just below 59.5, CS just below 62 on bearish candle, IT=67/69.

3. BIDU
Weekly: both range and volume contracted last week as the negative momentum continues to diminish for the 3rd straight week; in oversold but not much rebound signs;
Daily: a long-running symmetrical triangle formation is getting close to the end; positive momentum stalled; indicators mildly bullish for the near future
** Trade along the movement when it breaks out from the triangle formation. The symmetrical triangle formation is a trend continuation pattern, and as it is under both MA50 and 200, and that MA50 will cross down MA200 in days, it seems it will break down further. However, its action in last several days has been quite strong in the context of the market, hmmm…

4. DRYS
Weekly: 2nd losing week as the negative momentum rising again; stochastic poised to cross-down; candle formation bearish.
Daily: negative momentum rising; MA50 just crossed below MA200 since Aug’06; short-term MA poised to form bow-tie bearish reversal; in oversold.
** SW-S2, EZ=69.8-75, IDS just above 75, CS above MA50/200 with a bullish candle, IT=60.

5. FSLR
Weekly: 3rd straight losing week as the volume increased; negative momentum on the rise again; stochastic poised to cross down; consecutive long shadows indicative of selling pressures;
Daily: momentum just flipped to the negative side; stuck in a down-trend channel since the post-ER gap up; indicators overall favor more downside move in near future;
** SW-S2, EZ=198-MA50, IDS just above 212, CS just above MA50 with a bullish candle, IT around 180.

6. FXI
Weekly: 3rd straight losing week on rising volume; negative momentum rising again; in oversold but heading for more oversold;
Daily: momentum flipped to the negative side; MA50 just crossed down MA200 for the first time with short-term MA in solid down trend formation; poised to break down the 6 week trading range;
** SW-S2, EZ=139-145, IDS just above 145, CS just above 142 with a bullish candle, IT around 120.

7. MON
Weekly: 2nd losing week with volume and negative momentum on the rise; stochastic crossed down; candle formation bearish; still a up-trender overall;
Daily: negative momentum rising as it closed below MA50; bearish volume pattern; indicators favor more near-term decline.
** SW-S1, EZ=108-MA50, IDS just above 117, CS just above MA50 with a bullish candle; IT=95

8. CTRP

Snap calls

9. CRM
** DT-L2, EZ=54-55.2, IDS just below 54, IT=58
** SW-L2 if it spikes towards MA200 (50.12 now), IDS just below 50, CS near MA200 on bearish candle, IT=56

10. CTRP
** DT/SW-L3, EZ=50.5-51.2, IDS just below 50, IT=54
** SW-L3, EZ=48-49.2, IDS just below 48, CS just below MA200 (48.3 now) with a bearish candle, IT=54.

11. CMED
** CTT between 28/30 and MA200/40, bearish bias

12. DVN
** SW-S1, EZ=101-105, IDS just above 107, CS just above 104 with a bullish candle, IT=95

13. GS
** CTT between 148/150 and 170/172, bearish bias.

14. ILMN
** SW-L1, EZ=MA200-62, IDS just below MA200, CS just below 60, IT=72.

15. ISRG
** CTT between 230/MA200 and MA50/290; bias mildly bearish.

16. TRA
** CTT between 32/MA200 and 45/MA50, bearish bias