Thursday, March 06, 2008

Moment of the truth: who are you, really?

I was shocked. First, there was no last hour rally today, and the market receded like a tide, leaving many bulls standing without their pants on. Second, the votes to the last poll have been decisively bearish (almost twice as many ppl favoring bottom testing as those favoring a rally), could this be the first time that the small-time armatures like us actually get it right? Or this is just too easy?
Today's decline caused the momentum for all major indices on the daily charts flipped to the negative side. As they all stand not far away from the Jan bottoms, an ugly job report tomorrow could really drive the indices to the bottoms.
My plan -- if the market gaps up and rally in the early going on a "good" job report, I will actively casting my wabbit traps. On the other hand, if the market tanks big after the job report, I might go for a list of most DT-long setups if the market bottoms out before noon.
I know this is the moment a lot of us have been waiting for, the question is, when it finally arrives, do you know who you really are? Vote now!


RazoR said...

you think capitulation is today? I see dow 11400 by end april...

flyingwabbit said...

I agree with you that the intermediate bottom probably will be formed some point in the spring, however, if bulls don't give up to the second leg down sooner rather than later, we might have this thing grinding down throughout the year.
Overall volumes still light today, maybe the fireworks will come in the pm.