Sunday, March 09, 2008

Weekly Trading Calls -- March 9, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for Next Week

As I mentioned in my Weekend Notes on the Market, with the market now resuming its primary trend, the best SW should be along the direction of the primary trend. Buy-at-bottom setups can still be entertained for the stocks with strong support nearby, but profits should be taken quickly and holding time should be reduced to DT or overnight play.

Weekly: negative momentum abating for the 3rd straight week as it remains range-bound; continues to linger in the oversold area without much signs of imminent rebound; technical picture overall mildly bearish.
Daily: momentum positive but stalled, indicators mixed and overall neutral for the near-term outlook
** CTT between 115/118 and 130/132, don’t trade the mid-range for SW.
** Go along with the break-out if it closes either above 131 on a bullish candle (IT=140) or below 116 on a bearish candle (IT=110).

Weekly: on a 10 week losing streak with volumes on the rise for 3rd week; negative momentum high and still rising; both Stochastic and RSI(2) indicating deep oversold conditions but no signs of turn around yet; a spinning candle suggesting bears/bulls in-balance;
Daily: candle formations show short-term bottoming attempt (confirmed by the volume pattern); other indicators still mildly bearish for the near term.
** SW-L3, EZ=61-63, IDS just below 59.5, CS just below 62 on bearish candle, IT=67/69.

Weekly: both range and volume contracted last week as the negative momentum continues to diminish for the 3rd straight week; in oversold but not much rebound signs;
Daily: a long-running symmetrical triangle formation is getting close to the end; positive momentum stalled; indicators mildly bullish for the near future
** Trade along the movement when it breaks out from the triangle formation. The symmetrical triangle formation is a trend continuation pattern, and as it is under both MA50 and 200, and that MA50 will cross down MA200 in days, it seems it will break down further. However, its action in last several days has been quite strong in the context of the market, hmmm…

Weekly: 2nd losing week as the negative momentum rising again; stochastic poised to cross-down; candle formation bearish.
Daily: negative momentum rising; MA50 just crossed below MA200 since Aug’06; short-term MA poised to form bow-tie bearish reversal; in oversold.
** SW-S2, EZ=69.8-75, IDS just above 75, CS above MA50/200 with a bullish candle, IT=60.

Weekly: 3rd straight losing week as the volume increased; negative momentum on the rise again; stochastic poised to cross down; consecutive long shadows indicative of selling pressures;
Daily: momentum just flipped to the negative side; stuck in a down-trend channel since the post-ER gap up; indicators overall favor more downside move in near future;
** SW-S2, EZ=198-MA50, IDS just above 212, CS just above MA50 with a bullish candle, IT around 180.

6. FXI
Weekly: 3rd straight losing week on rising volume; negative momentum rising again; in oversold but heading for more oversold;
Daily: momentum flipped to the negative side; MA50 just crossed down MA200 for the first time with short-term MA in solid down trend formation; poised to break down the 6 week trading range;
** SW-S2, EZ=139-145, IDS just above 145, CS just above 142 with a bullish candle, IT around 120.

7. MON
Weekly: 2nd losing week with volume and negative momentum on the rise; stochastic crossed down; candle formation bearish; still a up-trender overall;
Daily: negative momentum rising as it closed below MA50; bearish volume pattern; indicators favor more near-term decline.
** SW-S1, EZ=108-MA50, IDS just above 117, CS just above MA50 with a bullish candle; IT=95


Snap calls

9. CRM
** DT-L2, EZ=54-55.2, IDS just below 54, IT=58
** SW-L2 if it spikes towards MA200 (50.12 now), IDS just below 50, CS near MA200 on bearish candle, IT=56

10. CTRP
** DT/SW-L3, EZ=50.5-51.2, IDS just below 50, IT=54
** SW-L3, EZ=48-49.2, IDS just below 48, CS just below MA200 (48.3 now) with a bearish candle, IT=54.

11. CMED
** CTT between 28/30 and MA200/40, bearish bias

12. DVN
** SW-S1, EZ=101-105, IDS just above 107, CS just above 104 with a bullish candle, IT=95

13. GS
** CTT between 148/150 and 170/172, bearish bias.

14. ILMN
** SW-L1, EZ=MA200-62, IDS just below MA200, CS just below 60, IT=72.

15. ISRG
** CTT between 230/MA200 and MA50/290; bias mildly bearish.

16. TRA
** CTT between 32/MA200 and 45/MA50, bearish bias


RazoR said...

fantastic! Stocks on sale, got a starter position on drys,eslr and csiq...I think we see a short term bottom this week, the calls are crushed and now the puts must be nulled before next friday, so a rally is in store, same setup as last month...congrats to all shorts today!

flyingwabbit said...

"Stocks on sale", was that a catch phrase for some pump and dump operations? :) but seriously, though the dead cat must bounce (and many times), without razor-sharp skills that you have, I would rather be involved in Spitzer's #&^$ ring than catching falling knife at this stage:P on the other hand, I will DT long though, got tons of coins from AAPL today...

RazoR said...

I don't think you want to hang with Elliot, his hookers were $5500an hour!

flyingwabbit said...

well, for that price, I made nearly 10 min today, should be enough if what he got was super hotties :P

razor said...

what a short roast! 6.8 pts on drys...I'm shorting if we go to 12200 tomorrow.

flyingwabbit said...

razor: good trade! let's see if your feel for tomorrow is once again right on the money. what a rally, always so dramatic in a bear market!

RazoR said...

The real bummer here is that the market opened with a 250 pt gap up, which means at some point we have to go back to fill, so its going to be dicey, still got some longs for tomorrow, if we pull back I'll just add to some positions, one thing is certain, all options put/call have been destroyed...

RazoR said...

Thoughts for today...Some stocks did not areciate much in that rally, can you imagine the rices we get if the market tanks 400?
just shorted x at 113.5

flyingwabbit said...

razor: good short on X, I have been waiting for AKS to pop-up a bit. In the meantime, continued to DT AAPL from the short side and got a bunch of golden coins. I guess the market will be consolidating here before heading south again.