Sunday, May 11, 2008

Weekly Trading Calls -- May 11, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for Next Week

As I stated in my “Weekend Notes on the Market”, technically, there are signs that the multi-week rally off the March bottom may be coming to an end; however, the lack of big institutions participation may hinder any sustained trending on either direction.

1. AGU:
CTT between MA50 and the recent high, don’t trade the mid-range.

2. AMZN: CTT between 64/67 and 77/80, don’t trade the mid-range.

3. BIDU: CTT between MA200/MA50/300 and 380/400, don’t trade the mid-range.

4. FCX: CTT between 100/MA50 and 120/123, don’t trade the mid-range.

5. PCLN: SW-L1, ez=130-133, ITS just below 130, CS below 132, IT=150.

Earning Plays:
LDK, CLWR, NUAN, TJX, ERTS, HMIN, WFMI, TOL, WMT, CTRP, URBN, EJ, HPQ, KSS, JCP, ANF.

8 comments:

Yuriy said...

Hi, what is your suggestion regarding CTRP. Thanks

flyingwabbit said...

Yuriy:
FA speaking, CTRP has always been a good bullish play, and it often rose post ER. TA speaking, it should be a strong buy from MA50 to 63 with a stop just below MA50. Then again, holding for ER is always risky without proper hedging. I am considering a bull put spread for the ER play.

pcaguy said...

I have bought puts on PCLN several times this year and made money each time. Luck ? Glad I was not short this week.
I see you will go long at $130-$133 on PCLN.
But PCLN is not considered a put candidate at $139 ?
Would it be a good Put candidate at $143 ? Or is it a better Put candidate at $138 ?
Just trying to learn some technical trading. I've just been a counter trend trader type near lows and highs. I win some and I lose some. Just trying to get better.
Been gone all weekend driving 600 miles to visit both Grandmas. And a meeting Monday AM. I will research the earnings calendar also looking for more straddle trades.
PCA GUY

flyingwabbit said...

pcaguy:
drove 600 miles to visit BOTH granmas during the weekend? now you are what I call a few good men!!!
I also have a personal inclination to be a counter-trend trader, but sometimes, I try to go with the trend, which is the case in PCLN.
Really close to be stopped out on both AAPL and MON puts. The bulls are really pushing it, but overall vols are anemic, hmmm....

pcaguy said...

Looking thru the earnings report schedule for May 12 and May 13 I find no obvious straddle plays.
ATVI: Sold AQVTG Aug $35 puts for a quick $.50 on 5 contracts.
OIH: Bot back 20 contracts OIHGS at $16.87 average this am after selling 85 contract at $19.90 Friday closing. I will add to my OIH position as it goes down.
RIMM: Trading at 52 week high $143.08 today, close at $141.97.
Bought 25 contracts RULRJ at $12.62 average in the last trading hour today. RIMM shows a pattern of selling down pretty well after a 3 day runup. Risky business. Will take profits tomorrow.
EL: Traded up to $48.75 within $.20 of its 52 week high a few days ago. Pretty amazing for a stock that reported no gain in earnings in its report last Tuesday. P/E is 21, this could be a good short soon. No position after taking quick profits last week.
DRYS: Is this a short candidate ?
PCA GUY

pcaguy said...

CSIQ: up $10 today
Bot 55 contracts July 45 put, GQASI at average cost of $7.66
RIMM; Sold 25 contracts RULRJ at $14.30
OIH: Bot 25 more OIHGS current position now is 45 at $16.17
OIH: Bot 15 July 30 puts ODLSD at $19.92 average
BYI: Bot 5 July 45 puts BYISI at $5.30 cost.
Oil inventory tomorrow so OIH can go either direction and options expiration on Friday will make for a wide swing in OIH. Which direction ? I don't know.
PCA GUY

flyingwabbit said...

pcaguy:
too busy this week to play the street :( you are on the roll and I am trying to learn how you catch your prey. ever thought about putting JRCC, SOHU and ENER using your contrarian approach?

pcaguy said...

CSIQ: Up big(+$3) as of 7:10 am Oregon time. But I sold my55 contracts -GQASI July 45 puts at $8.88 average in the first ten minutes of trading.
ENER:
I did look at trading ENER as a Put trade a few days ago and for some reason my examination of its price history scared me from trying it.
BYI:
Up about a buck this am and I am looking at a $1 loss on the puts because they were obviously mispriced relative to the stock price.
OIH:
down $263 to $204.10. Glad I bought 30 July $220 puts -ODLSD at the close yesterday at $19.7 average. However my 45 contracts July $195 calls -OIHGS cost of $16.17 do not look as good as yesterday.
OIH; looking for big volatility going into this Friday' option expiration.
PCA GUY