Thursday, May 01, 2008

Position update

AKAM straddle for ER play: closed in the early going with a loss near $700. The lesson learned here: if a stock does not have a recent history of dramatic post-ER move, be careful about the straddle play, at least using smaller sizes.

FSLR: shorted (half position) at 273.78 after it broke 275, stop just above today's high, IT=250/MA50. thought about using the put while it was still around 280, but the puts are too pricey.

The market is rallying big time as the major indices are piecing through major resistance zones. Obviously bulls feel that the recession might be ending and the inflation is not a near-term concern.

Any bears dare to bet on tomorrow's April Job report?

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

From your lead I studied the JDSU straddle yesterday. DID NOT pull the trigger because I'm learning what you guys are doing. Would have been a good trade. I will post questions about future straddles in real time.
I did buy OIH July 185 calls this morning OIHGQ at $14.71 cost when OIH was at $189. The jersey boys have sold off the commodities several times after FED intervention and this time was no different. OIH is generally strong into Memorial Day. Jersey boys will trade OIH up on May 17th expiration day is my play. I buy July calls so that my time depreciation is less.
Also bot July SKF $85 calls SKFGG at a cost of $14.40 when SKF was at $94
PCAGUY

flyingwabbit said...

PCAGUY:
I skipped JDSU yesterday because I try not to play options on stocks trading less than $15-20. Big mistake, had I played, I would've done the 15 straddle, and pocketed a nice $1.5 differences.
On OIH, while your rationale/reasoning make good sense, I would've been more patient with an entry near MA50/MA200, and use MA200 as CS and 180 as IDS.
On SKF: while it is oversold on almost all time frames, it looks pretty bearish as it closed below MA200 with a bearish candle. I personally would avoid it from the long side, well, maybe a quick one if it spikes towards 85 with a tight stop.
Just a madman's 2cents, so you know :)

RazoR said...

you owe me commission everytime you call yourself madman...ended up taking 16 pts on half my V, tried a strangle on chk but looks like a loser oh well...

Anonymous said...

Re: OIH
You could be right that I am too early. The compelling argument is that OIH does run up in the summertime. The big guys may run OIH down $8-10 in one day in the near future. Every time they have successfully dropped OIH precipitously the OIH then rallys for 3 weeks following. I'm keeping some dry powder to add to OIH if they drop this big again.
Too early on SKF also. The best buy on SKF is the 3rd down day in a row and then SKF will rally for a couple of days to a week.
For some reason I'm having trouble with my Google Password. Will try to repair the error
PCAGUY

pcaguy said...

Sold 65% of my position in OIH at the close Friday. OIH was trading at 196.70+ and I got $19.25 for -OIHGQ. Quick 30% on the shares I sold. Reason for selling ? Crude oil moved up $3.94 to $116.40 yet the OIH only moved up $4.64. Generally OIH will move up $2 for every $1 in crude. With this disconnect if crude moves down $2 next week I could lose my gains in OIH. However all bets are still on for a big move up the week of May 13 into options expiration. I plan on buying back 65 contracts -OIHGQ at a cost of $17 sometime next week.
SKF trade is wrong. SKF closed down to $92.84 but started the day at $89.47. My July calls were placed around $94. Stiil holding 5 contracts of -SKFGG at a cost of $14.40
Considering a straddle on EL next week ? They report Tuesday before the bell. Prior earnings EL looks to move pretty well in the 2 days following earnings. Also considering a straddle on TS which reports Tuesday after the close. Comments ?
PCA GUY

flyingwabbit said...

PCAGUY:
Nice profit and execution on OIH! Be careful with the SKF, and make sure you have a stop loss somewhere. Will think about EL and TS over the weekend.

pcaguy said...

Sold -SKFGG at $14.50 this am. Will retry at a lower entry point when SKF is $90
PCA GUY