Sunday, April 06, 2008

Weekly Trading Calls -- April 6, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for Next Week

Even though the major indices are yet to give a solid confirmation, there is a growing consensus that the market has seen its inter-mediate bottoms, and the underlying bullish tone is indisputable in recent days. On the other hand, facing a well-defined resistance zone while in over bought conditions, the market is likely to consolidate and pullback before it can gather enough strength to advance further in a meaningful way. Given all of that, it seems that right now the best strategy is SW from the long side when the consolidation is over. DT or SW short setups may be consider to play the overbought conditions in the early part of the week, but tight stops must be honored and profits must be protected or taken quickly.

I am considering some changes in how I do the trading calls. Except of a few regular names, I will shift focus to the setups that would generate at least 10% potential profits with reasonable risks in 3-10 days time frame. I will also reduce detailed technical analysis for most of the setups. In addition, I may post setups during the weekday evenings if I have time and see any compelling ones.

1. AAPL
** SW-S2, ez=158-168, stop just above 170, IT=145
** SW-L2, ez=140-145.5, stop just below 140, IT=158

2. APOL

** SW-S1, ez=52.5-56, stop just above 57, IT=45

3. BIDU
** SW-S2, ez=319-329, stop just above 330, IT=285

4. CME
** CTT between 475/480 and 535/550, don’t trade the mid range.

5. CRM
** SW-L1, ez=58.5-60.5, stop just below 58.5, IT=70

6. FCX
** SW-L2, ez=96-101, IDS just below 93, CS just below 96, IT=118

7. FSLR
Ten consecutive up days with 40% gain, in overbought for a week now, but it might have a bit more to go as the positive momentum is still rising. Early signs of possible exhaustive/capitulation move coming. Current short position will be stopped out around 285, and will re-establish the position if the momentum stalled AND there are other concrete signs of topping (especially the candle formation), IT=MA10-255.

8. JASO
** SW-S2, ez=23.8-25, stop just above 25.5, IT around 20

9. LDK
** SW-S2, ez=41.8-46, stop just above 47, IT=MA50/30

10. MA
** SW-S1 when it closes below MA10 with a bearish candle, IT=MA50/210. May consider a speculative small SW-S3 position from 230-234, stop just above 235, and add to the position when it breaks MA10.

11. SGR
** SW/DT-S2 if it spikes towards 58, IDS just above 58.5, CS around 58, IT=53.

12. SPWR
Acted like FSLR, but fundamentally/technically weaker. Consider a speculative position from 98-110, and add more when there are concrete signs of topping, IT=MA10/80.

13. STP
** SW-S2, ez=53.8-58, stop just above, IT=MA50/40

14. YGE

** SW-S2, ez=24.5-26, stop just above, IT=20

15. WLT and X
DT/SW-S2 whenever the previous day’s low is breached, stop just above the previous day high, IT around MA10.

9 comments:

z-stock said...

FSLR is a pretty tough short to do-

do you have anything easier to short like C or BAC?
zee

z-stock said...

GS- on an EPS book estimate--GS under 165 is oversold--and 210 is using 2009 eps as eps book price

flyingwabbit said...

z-stock
No kidding that FSLR is a tough short, thought about adding position earlier, but decided to short JASO instead at 23.88. I think the solar stocks will pullback here. yeah, I have been eying on some bank stocks, especially Mer and C, but we will see. GS is nearing the top of the multi-month trading range, let's see if it can break out here.

flyingwabbit said...

Got FSLR timing wrong by 1 day and what a difference that made, still holding the half position of FSLR, which looks better today, may consider add another half if it spikes towards 285/291 tomorrow with stop just above.
Still holding SPWR, may add tomorrow if it spikes towards 90/94 again, with stop just above.
Still holding JASO, looking good right now.
Took a small position in WLT at 67.8, stop just above today's high, IT around 64, r/r not good.

Anonymous said...

Careful shorting LDK this week. They just got cleared by the SEC in the long standing inventory issue. That news tonight and today's pull back in most solars may tomorrow drive the sector up again. JMHO.

Nosmo

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTN0742840420080407?rpc=44

flyingwabbit said...

Nosmo:
thanks a lot for the warning, I hope that news has not been fully priced in LDK yet (I bet you the rapid climb in the last few days has something to do with it), and if other names rise tomorrow because of LDK, that would be actually good opportunity to short. We shall see.

RazoR said...

dumped it all pre-market
14 pts drys
5 pts solf bought back
3 pts crox still in
only loss a freakin put on C lol

flyingwabbit said...

razor;
this is just not right, razor, you got to find in your heart to help your fellows here to learn some razor sharp skills, see how I got killed by a one-day too early short on FSLR? I mean would it be a better world if we can all get lots of coins like you? :)

RazoR said...

Geez Wabbit don't give me too many props, I missed 40 pts on x and aapl, must punish self...