Weekly Trading Calls -- April 13, 2008

Overall Trading Strategy for the Next Week

For the reasons I stated in my Weekend Notes on the Market, I think the market will be range-bound between Jan/Feb high and March low for the time being. Given the kind of ER we saw from FedEx/UPS/GE, I also suspect the coming ER season will be a rocky one with overall bearish tone. Considering all the turmoil and volatility, the prudent strategy will be CTT using key R/S as entry/exit references levels and overbought/oversold as entry/exit triggers, and it makes sense to shorten the holding time frame until the overall market trend becomes clear.

1. AAPL
** SW-L2, ez=MA50-141, IDS below 130, CS below MA50, IT=155
** SW/DT-S3, ez=150.4-155, IDS just above 155, CS above MA200 with bullish candle, IT=145.

2. ABX
** SW-L2, ez=38-41.5, IDS just below 38, CS below 39 on bearish candle, IT=45

3. AMZN (for Mon/Tues only)
** SW-L2, ez=67-70.2, IDS just below 67, CS around 69 with bearish candle, IT=74

4. CRM
** SW-L2, ez=54-58.2, IDS just below 54, CS below MA50 on bearish candle, IT=64/66

5. GS (for Mon/Tue only)
** SW/DT-L3 if it spikes down towards 160/163, IDS just below 160, CS below 163 on bearish candle, IT=169.

6. ISRG (ER on Thursday)
** (before ER) SW-L2, ez=MA50-316, IDS just below 300, CS just below MA50 on bearish candle, IT=MA10.

7. RIMM
** SW-L1 if it spikes down towards MA50/107, IDS just below 100, CS just below MA50 on bearish candle, IT=118

8. FFIV
** SW-L2, ez=18-19.1, IDS just below 17.7, CS below 18.5 on bearish candle, IT=20.8