Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Wabbit Traps

Bulls not only put up a better show today even though volumes were still underwhelming, but seem more than ready to have some kind of mini orgy leading up to the Friday's option expiration (razor is right, those puts will be wiped out). To me, unless the major indices closes above their MA50, the bulls are partying deep in bears territory, and you know how that would end. Excited by the imaginary gory scenes, I figure it is time to set up some wabbit traps using small short positions or puts, below is the list of traps, no laughing please:

** AAPL: entry 134.8-136, stop just above 137, IT=126
** BIDU: either just below 300 or 320 with a stop just above, IT=280 or 300
** DRYS: 92-94, stop just above (hold for ER?), IT=70??
** FSLR: 254-260, stop just above, IT=220
** GOOG: 558-573, stop just above, IT=513
** NUE: 63.8-65, stop just above, IT=58
** SPWR: 84.8-90, stop just above, IT=75
** STP: 58.9-63, stop just above, IT=53
** UA: 48-51.5, stop up to 52.5, IT=43

So, what's for dinner? Steak or wabbit stew?

9 comments:

flyingwabbit said...

damn, my traps are empty! Big Ben renewed the vow that the Fed wants to be the Wall Street's bitch, what else they want from the Fed, mothering their children?
My POT is tasting better and better, but I am on the verge of stopping out on DVN. Could not pull the trigger on NUE, will give it another day.

razor said...

good ol profit taking, stopped out 3 times this week, yuck, fed bla bla slowing economy bla blechhh
"the bulls are partying deep in bears territory" - good call wabbit

flyingwabbit said...

razor:
got to love your execution on AAPL, sometimes I just feel that SW is more difficult that DT, especially when the market has been range-bound for the past 3 weeks.
The CBS Marketwatch headline says "Bernanke kills the rally buzz", and that's just hilarious! I mean what else the man could say/do to assure the market?

razor said...

well yeah, there are buying days and selling days...if we go down 12250 has to be closed...its funny how the market shows its hate for Ben just like Dubya...maybe Cramer can save the market by teaching more soccer moms and children to trade....:o

razor said...

wabbit what is your take on aapl's chart? Cup and handle, ascending triangle, has the look for a pop to 145 but i have no news or market breadth basis for the call...

qiqiapr said...

Traps are empty:)) But we should learn from your patience.

Do you guys think we are currently in another 5-wave down, 1)12767->12069 2)12069->12557, 3)12557->~11700?....

Today's close still in a 'bull' channel.

razor said...

Well many events have happened, companies on average are making less with consumers buying less, my guess is that the chart eeks down and starts to round up with natural gravity towards the 3,4 quarters, unless the banks begin to fold, then its 11k...

flyingwabbit said...

razor:
cup and handle? not really! whatever angle I look at AAPL charts, I just do not see the sign of that big pop, unless the 3G rumor is for real. On the other hand, bears might be losing a bit of grip on it here..

qiqiapr:
5 wave?! what is this, oceanography? that is just too advance to me :P

Just saw CMG below 95 in AH after its ER, boy, I sure hope someone acted on my Monday's call when it was around 106. Looks like the gap near 90 on last July will be filled tomorrow.

flyingwabbit said...

damn it, I just could not get the traps right, oh well, at least I have some POT to smoke and along with my other token short positions in MON, DVN, AAPL...
Now I am considering some reverse traps (long) on AAPL (near 120/122), FSLR (near 200), even BIDU (near 240), need some serious bear hugs here :)