While my long term view of the market remains firmly bearish, my bias on the short and intermediate term trend is turning bullish. The chance is decent that the recent low will be held throughout 2008. As we are moving within 3 weeks of the NOV OE, my primary strategy for the coming days will continue to be shorting naked calls and puts. In any case, I will try to hold back fire until the election is over.
Vote!
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Rally on?
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3 comments:
Thanks, Wabbit,
Haven't been here for a while and missed many of your posts.
I'm wondering why would you be "firmly" bearish in the long run? National debt problem? USD weak outlook? Mind share?
I thought stock is the leading indicator in the whole economic picture. At 8000, many stock has rediculous low PE. I really hope 8000 should be a bottom. We may see index re-test it a few times (I certainly hope not), but if 8000 is firmly penetrated, I dare not image what next level it would go to. It would look horrible for average Joe whose retirement is entirely on MF.
Again, thanks for your input.
-Leo
Leo:
thanks for stopping by. my market views are mainly based on my analysis on three fronts:
(1) technicals=lots of chart reading
(2) fundamentals=lots of article reading
(3). sentimentals=monitoring many good traders/investors' talking/actions.
Sorry that I won't be able to explain my bearish view in a short period of time. Instead, just ask yourself TWO questions:
1. regardless the amount of the money all governments have thrown onto the markets, has the root cause of this whole mess being really addressed yet?
2. do you think the economical troubles on the main street are just coming out in force OR they are now in the 7th, 8th or even 9th innings of this saga?
let's hope good changes will arrive soon.
Thanks for your thoughts. Seems I need to re-evaluate my 8000 bottom wishful thinking. :(
-Leo
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