Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Daily Calls -- Oct. 26, 2006

The FOMC decision could not put a decent dent on the market bullishness even for 30 min. Things are looking dicer every day for anyone holding a bearish bias. As for me, even though I have been holding a slightly bearish bias, at least I only act on what I see on the charts when I start to trade, which has so far saved me a lot of headaches (had I acted on my biased views) and made a few bucks J. The market could move big tomorrow as it usually does on the post-FOMC day, and keep eyes on NASDAQ 2375 level, if that level is breached, bulls may super size their on-going parties.

1. CHRW: may consider S2 on top, entry zone 45-45.5, stop just above 46. The reaction to the Q3 is not exactly bullish.

  1. ESRX: consider CTT between 63.8 and 67.5/68.5 use tight stop. The post-earning reaction is very bearish.
  1. NTRI: consider L3 on bottom near 59/60.3/61.6 use tight stop, MA50=61.
  1. SNDK: S1 on top, entry zone 52-53.2, CS=53.2, IDS=53.8. OR, set-up automatic short order using Dave Landry’s protocol.
  1. SOHU: consider L2 on pullback, entry zone around 20.8 with a stop just below 20.6. yet another bottomed-and-reverse event/
  1. TXN: S2 on top, entry zone 31.3 (MA200) to 31.7 (MA50), stop just above 32.
  1. ENER: L1 on pullback, entry zone 37-37.4, stop just below 36.4 (MA50), IT=39.

News and Earning plays:

  1. BOBJ: L1 when it solidly breaks 37 with a stop just below 37. Reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, traded mostly between 36 and 37.3, with AH support at 36.4 and resistance near 37. Key levels: 34.12 (close), 34.75 (day high and resistance), 36.4 (AH low), 37 (key resistance and AH close), 39. short interests at 1yr high (over 3%)
  1. AFFX: L2 when the AM signals are right, but aware of AH high around 26.3 and MA200. reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates. Traded mostly between 23.8 and 26.3, with solid AH support around 24.6 and resistance around 25.5. Key levels: 22.66 (close), 23.5, 24.6, 25.5, 26.3 (AH high), 27.5 (MA200). Short interests at 1 yr high (nearly 20%).
  1. SYMC: CTT between MA50 and MA200? reported Q2 in AH, met the low end of estimation. Traded mostly between 19.25 and 19.5. Key levels: 18.5 (MA200), 19.25, 19.5, 20 (MA50), 20.78 (close).
  1. FFIV: S2 on top since the AH showed top near 65. reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, traded mostly between 63 and 66, with solid support around 63 and resistance around 64.8 and 65.2. Key levels: 60, 63.8, 64, 64.8, 65.2, 66, 68.
  1. RHAT: Be patient if you have to bottom fishing this thing (for take over play). It dropped over 16% on heavy volume on some seemingly innocent ORCL news, AH was a down hill move with solid resistance around 17.6, 17.3, 17, 16.8, and closed at the lowest point around 16.33. The stock has already lost 20% in the past 4 weeks. Key levels: 18.68 (recent 52 wk low), 19.51 (today’s close). It has a historical support around 16.

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