Saturday, September 02, 2006

Weekly Trading Call -- Sept. 3 -- 7

Based on the charts, both DOW and SP500 look bullish from every angle, but NASDAQ is not as strong, especially the daily chart shows signs of CTT (counter-trend-trading) setup. The next significant resistance for NASDAQ is around 2235 where the June rebound peak and the bottom of Mid Jan, Feb and March converge. To me, if NASDAQ can break and close above that level, I will seriously reconsider my overall bearish standing. My strategy for next week is looking for short set-up on top, and to be safe, I will primarily focus on those have a clear down trend (6 month chart) and stay below MA200. Also, I want to use conservative sizes, and try to hold positions for at least 2-3 days, and not exit until the IT is reached or stopped out.

Abbreviations: IDS=intra-day stop, CS=closing stop, IT=initial target, S1=Strong short, S2=short, S3=weak short, L1=Strong long, L2=long, L3=weak long. MA=moving average. CTT-ready=counter-trend-trading criteria met,

1. ADI: CTT-ready on daily chart. S2 on top, IDS=31, CS=30.75, IT=29. Even if it closes above MA50=30.8, consider S on top use 33.5 as CS and MA200=34.2 as IDS.

@@ grade: B (right direction, no stop-out, IT nearly hit, 2-3% gain)

2. AMZN: consider S2 on top when it approaches 32.8 or more patiently when it approaches 34 to 34.8, IDS=MA200=35.4, CS=35, IT=29.8.

@@ grade: C (right direction, but trade was unlikely to be executed as it failed to reach the planned entry zone).

3. ANF: consider S2 on top when it enters 68-70 zone, IDS=71, CS=70, IT=63.5

@@ C

4. BRCM: S1 on top use 29.7 as CS, IDS=31, IT=26.2.

@@ A (excellent call, will not stop out, IT met and more, gain over 5%).

5. COST: S1 on top when it approaches 48.5, CS=49.6, IDS=MA200=MA50=51.7

@@ B.

6. EBAY: S2 on top when it enters 28.8-30 zone, CS=30, IDS=31, IT=25.5

@@ Grade D (overall direction incorrect, no stop-out, IT not met)

7. JNPR: S2 on top, CS=IDS=14.82, IT=14. OR more patiently, when it approaches 16.

@@ Grade E (overall direction incorrect, possible stop-out, IT not met)

8. MDT: S2 on top when it approaches 48, CS=48.4, IDS=MA200=50.3, IT=44.5

@@ C

9. MU: daily chart CTT-ready, no chase, CS=17.5, IDS=17.6, IT=16.8,

@@. F (overall direction wrong, stop out)

10. NVDA: CTT-ready, no chase, S2 on top around 28.5, CS=29, IDS=29.6, IT=26.

@@ B

11. OCR: S2 on top when it approaches MA50=46, CS=47, IDS=48, IT=43.

@@ A

12. RIMM: CTT ready, no chase, S2 on top near 83, CS=83, IDS=84.5, IT=79.

@@ A

13. SBUX: S3 on top when it approaches MA50=32.5, CS=MA200=33.1, IDS=34.5, IT=30.5

@@ C

14. SNDK: CTT-ready on daily chart, no chase, S3 on top use 59.71 as CS, IDS=60.01, IT=55.

@@ A

15. WLT: CTT-ready on daily chart, no chase, S3 around 55.5, CS=55.7, IDS=57, IT=50.

@@ A.

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