Saturday, September 30, 2006

Weekly Calls, Oct. 2-6, 2006

Trading call evaluation results:

I have conducted a preliminary evaluation of the trading calls I made since Sept. 6 (the first post on this site), and here are the results:

1. Daily calls: winning calls/lossing calls=3.5, meaning for every losing call, there are 3.5 winning calls; winning call percentage 37.2%, lossing call %10.6, un-triggered calls: 50.5%.

2. Weekly calls: winning calls/lossing calls=1.3; winning call percentage: 38.5%, lossing calls: 29.8%; un-triggered calls: 30.6.

Some noticible points: my daily calls have a much better W/L ratio than the weekly ones, which were pretty much a flip-flop; around 50% of the daily trading calls were un-triggered, most of which were in right direction, but the entry-zone never reached.

I will continue evaluate my trading calls through the end of this year as a systematic examination of my trading system.

On the major indices:

It has been a very bullish week for all major indices as both SP500 and DOW made fresh highs, while NASDAQ also gained nearly 1.8%. On the weekly charts, all indices are poised for more gains, even though there are signes of diminishing momentum. It is also interesting that in the past 8 weeks, all major indices have had a neat alternated up-then-down weekly pattern. On the daily chart, the indices has stalled in the last 3 sessions of the week, and there are clear bearish divergences for all indices. Look more closely, DOW was struggling to break the all-time high, and failed in 3 attempts; NASDAQ ran into the resistance as it enters the Jan-May 2006 trading range. It is also worth to mention that right now for NASDAQ, MA50 and MA200 has just converged (2183.6), will the Golden Cross happen next week or there comes the turning point?

For next week, my overall bias for the major indices is mildly bearish. Basically, I see the market has priced in all good news, while ignoring the possibility of "hard-landing". In addition, the market has risen significantly in the past 10 weeks, and even they are going to rise further, somekind of consolidation/pullback is very likely. However, agressive shorting should be avoided at this junction as the technicals show very little bearish strength, in other words, we need a lot of signals to confirm the full-scale bearishness.

1. AAPL: S3 on top, entry zone 77-77.77, stop at 78, IT=74. Weekly chart points to further upside, but daily chart shows possible short-term top around 77.5.

2. ADI: S1 on top when it approaches MA50=30.5, CS=31, IDS=32, IT=28.

3. AEOS: S2 on top, entry zone 44.4-45, CS=45.3, IDS=45.8, IT=42. Both daily and weekly charts show strong bearish reversal signals. Its almost 10 straight up week may come to the end as the retail sector consolidate recent gains.

4. AMD: S1 on top, entry zone 24.9 (MA50)-25.8, stop around MA200=26.6, IT=23.7.

5. ANF: S2 on top, entry zone 70.5-71.5, IDS=72.5, CS=72., IT=67. Same technicals as AEOS.

6. BIDU: CTT between 82 and 93 use tight stops, don't play the mid-range, be patient.

7. BRCM: L2 on pullback, entry zone 28.7-29.3, IDS around MA50=28.6, IT=MA200=31.8.

8. COST: S1 on top, entry zone 51.4 (MA200) to 52.5, IDS just above 52.6, IT=47.

9. CTRP: CTT between 41.9 and 50 with a tight stop, don't trade the mid-range. The test of MA200=43.4 has been successulf in 3 attempts, and the downward momentum is diminishing, but there no strong indicator of immediate up turn just yet.

10. DVN: S2 on top when it approaches 65, stop just above 65, IT=60. how far can the rebound go here?

11. ENER: L3 on pullback, entry zone 35.5-36.4, IDS=34.98, CS=35.4, IT=39.

12. ESRX: S1 on top, entry zone 76.6-79, stop IDS=80.2, CS=79.6, IT=72. MA200=76.7, MA50=79.5

13. NTRI: CTT between 60 and 66 with a tight stop, don't trade the mid range.

14. NVDA: S3 on top, entry zone 30-31, stop at 31.3, IT=27.5.

15. OCR: CTT ready (against primary trend). L3 on bottom, entry zone 42.6-43.1, CS=42.48, IDS=42.2, IT=MA50=44.8.

16. RHAT: S1 on top, entry zone 22-22.8, stop 23, IT=20.

17. SNDK: CTT between 49 and 55/56.5 with a tight stop,

18. SONS: L1 on pullback, entry zone 4.95-5.1, stop just below MA50=4.9, IT=5.5; may also consider S3 on top, entry zone 5.6-5.7, stop just above 5.7.

19. WFMI: S1 on top, entry zone 61 (MA200)-61.8, stop=61.2, IT around MA50=57.1.

20. X: S1 on top, entry zone 59-60.5, CS=60, IDS=60.8, IT=55, MA200=58.5, MA50=59.6.

21. XRTX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 18.5-19, stop just below 18.5, IT around MA50=20.3.

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