Sunday, March 08, 2009

No rally no bottom?

Last Friday's Feb job report was in very sense the climax of the month long bad news flood, yet the market's reaction was nothing but an anticlimax. This may not be surprising as the major indices extended their losing streak to 4 weeks with a cumulative losses near 20%, a dramatic and lengthy drop that could well exhaust bears' fuel tank for now. With relatively light economic reports/earning events on the plate for this coming week, it is very likely that bears will pause to catch their breath so they can gather the strength for the final push.

The 60 min charts suggest a likely initial rebound of 2-3% in all major indices, possibly occurring in the early part of the week. However, I have serious doubts that the major indices will be able to challenge the key technical levels that they lost lately: SP500-- 740/750, DOW-- 7100/7400, NASDAQ--1350-1390 as the weekly charts show no signs that the slide is ending. For that matter, I won't look for a tradeble intermediate bottom until the weekly stochastic dips into oversold area, which likely needs at least another week or two. With that in mind, for next week, besides more day trading from both long/short side, I will consider short-term positions on the short side once the major indices approach those key resistances or when their 60 min charts become overbought.

Last week ended as the best week I have ever had, which actually triggers a grave concern: will the triumph leads to a sense of euphoria that in the past inevitably leads to serious drawbacks if not outright debacles? Wabbit might be a natural-born runner, but can he really fly high like an eagle without breaking all the natural laws? May God have mercy on me!

1. AAPL: ST-CTT between 80-83 (IDS below 78, CS below 80) and 90-93 (IDS above 93, CS above 91).

2. AMZN: MT-L1=52-58, CS<54, IT around 66.

3. AXE: MT-L1=24-25.5, stop just below 24, IT=30/33

4. BIDU: MT/ST-L1=140-148, CS just below 140, IDS just below 136, IT=180.

5. CME: MT/ST-L1=172-177, stop just below 170, IT around 220.

6. DHI: MT-L2 if it spikes towards 6, stop just below 5.7, IT around 8.

7. FCX: MT/ST-L1=28-33, stop just below 28, IT=37/40

8. FDX: speculative L3=30-33, stop just below 30, IT around 44

9. GOOG: MT-L2=280-300, stop just below 280, IT around 330.

10. GS: MT-L2=60-70, stop just below 60, IT around 87; ST-S3=85-90, stop just above 90, IT=78/80.

11. LEAP: MT/ST-L1=26-29, IT=35, CS just below 26.

12. MA: MT-L2=130-141, CS below 135, IDS below 128, IT=165.

13. MON: MT-L2=65-70, stop just below 63, IT=80.

14. NTRS: speculative L2=39-44, stop just below 39, IT around 54.

15. POT: CTT between 54/64 and 78/80,

16. SKF: speculative S1=280-350, stop above 360, IT=180/200. the possible strategies include shorting March 350-400 calls, or bear put spread, or alright puts (May strike).

17. SQNM: MT-L1=10-12.5, stop just below 10, IT=18/20

18. USO: ST-L1=23.5-26.5, IT=31/34

Good luck all!

1 comment:

multibagger said...

I really appreciate your blog and your time and effort and i can say that your blog is useful and valuable. i got some good from your blog and i want to thank to you for sharing.