Sunday, March 29, 2009

The March Madness, marching on?

With the winning streak extended to the third week, bulls have recovered around 2/3 of the huge losses during bears' February rampage. A steady stream of better-than-expected economic news greatly bolstered bulls strength, and the resulting V-shaped powerful rebound has many now believing that "the bottom" is in and a new bull market could be in the working.

Personally, I feel that a tradeble bottom (good for at least a couple of months) is likely in. At this stage, the market has also priced in the optimistic views that (1) US economy will see recovery in the second half of the year and (2)thanks to the all-in efforts by the Fed, the US financial system is stabilized if not building a solid footing for recovery. However, the burden is on the bulls side to substantiate those rosy views, and they must come out on the top on major reality-checks, such as this week's March job report and the upcoming of Q1 ER season.

TA wise, all major indices' primary down trend remains intact despite of the sharp rally as they are yet to even make a higher-high rebound (NASDAQ is pretty close). The dramatic V-shaped rally is looking tired and vulnerable for pullbacks if bulls cannot find new fuel this week. Considering these factors, I will once again focus on DT/ST from both sides. I intend to gradually build up some SW long positions IF the major indices can have some decent pullbacks (around their weekly MA10).

Had another winning week. Tried to be more patient and it paid out well on my BIDU short play (waited for days and finally shorted around 196 with intended stop just above 200, and covered the next day around 184), but the patience left me empty-handed as I refrained from going short on Thursday closing, hoping for a Friday gap-up at the open, which did not happen.

1. AAPL: ST/MT-CTT: long from 97-100 (stop just below 94), short from 112-120 (CS just above 120). bullish bias.

2. AMZN: ST/MT-CTT: long from 60-65 (stop below 60), short from 75-85 (CS above 85).
bullish bias.

3. BBY: LT/ST-S1 from 41.5-48, CS just above 46, IDS just above 48, IT around 34.

4. BIDU: LT-S2 from 197-220, CS just above 215, IDS just above 220, IT around 175.

5. COH: LT-S1 from 20-22.5, CS just above 21.5, IDS just above 23, IT around 16.

6. FAZ: speculative QT-L2 from 18-19, CS just below 18, IDS below 17, IT around 25; or speculative ST/MT-L1 around 10-15, stop just below 10, IT around 25.

7. FCX: LT-S1 from 46-53, stop just above 53, IT around 38/40.

8. FSLR: QT-CTT between 130/135 and 165/180.

9. GS: ST/MT-L1 from 92-101, IT around 115;

10. MON: ST/MT-L1 from 78-84, stop just below 78, IT around 95.

11. NFLX: QT/ST-S2 from 41-43, IT around 37.

12. SKF: speculative LT-L1 from 68-81, CS just below 70, IT around 120.

13. EDU: MT-S1 from 53-57, CS just above 58, IDS above 60, IT around 45.

14. ESRX: ST/MT-S1 from 45-51, stop just above 51, IT around 36.

15. KSS: LT-S2 from 48-52, CS just above 52, IT around 40.

16. LMT: MT-S2 from 75-82, stop just above 82.5, IT around 70.


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