Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Bottom watching, day 2....

Things got a bit interesting as bulls finally put together a rebound, well, sort of considering very heavy volumes and relatively small gains. Technical conditions could drive the rebound a bit higher, but fundamental conditions remain quite bleak and cloudy, and the June job report could improve the visibility on this regard. Once again, I will refrain from establishing any significant positions until I am clear about the market reactions to the job report.

Trading update:

Got out of PCX puts when it sliced through 150 in the early going, once again, captured not even 40% of the entire move. It is becoming quite obvious to all now that the main reason wabbit runs fast is because I ain't got no balls!

Trading Ideas for tomorrow:

Will focus on DT except may take a few speculative positions using Aug. dated options.

Long list: AAPL, ENER, MON
Short list: ABX, AKS, CF, RIMM, PCX, WFR, X
Speculative short list: APA, DVN, JRCC


Doug said...

FW Thanks for those lists. In response to yesterday's question in a market like this I'm strictly hit and run(IE: had a 1000 share position in IBM yesterday for about 3 minutes to grab $200) For the last 4 months 90% of the time I have gone to bed 100% in cash. 95% of the time stick with equities that have shown earnings per share growth of at least 25%(may deviate slightly for large caps) in the last quarter and then trade them on how they are generally behaving at the moment. Always in the hunt for rapid growth small caps but in a market like we have been experiencing the liquidity factor has kept me out of the buy and hold for a while game.

pcaguy said...

PUTS trades today:
Sold 520 calls this am for 26% gain
Sold 184 calls this am for 80% loss. Still had intial position from 6/25.
Added to puts position.
had small calls position. Tripled my position today. AKS at $60.5 and DRYS at $72.5 have to be bought ? ?
Feeling a little flush from June winnings and way ahead of budget for July already, too.

RazoR said...

anybody have some aspirin? Sold all my drys common at 75 for breakeven, lost 70% of 90c's, made 100% on my 70p's and bought it back at 70 with a 65p. Probably lost 2k in realized gains also. I also mentioned 2 days ago steel was going to roll over and failed to put anything, Wabbit I get to wear the stupid hat today, excuse me while I go destroy something...

pcaguy said...

Last trading hour;
Bot X, KOL, AKS calls

flyingwabbit said...

don't grab the stupid hat so fast, wait till you hear what I have done, too depressed to write now...

razor said...

oh man Wabbit it couldn't be as bad as buying calls on x today and getting stuck in a meeting :P


razor said...

thoughts...I was thinking "They" are just slugging the market to load up before earnings, and that suprises would be a catalyst for a rebound...however this time of year I think there will be no institutional support until some kind of capitulation, I think 10750is a lock...nvda just blew up and tech will go with it tomorrow...become one with the snake grasshoppa, for what snake would kill itself.

flyingwabbit said...

your case was simply something out of your control, mine is that it was completely in my control, and that is the big difference between you and me.
NVDA warning is indeed pretty ominous, but for tomorrow, the job report may have bigger impact on the market, who knows, we might get the capitulation everyone is waiting for.