Daily Calls -- Thur March 1, 2007

As expected, bulls put up a decent fight today and halted the tremendous down momentum. The problem is if how much more fight they can put up while not second-guessing on their belief. I am not quite ready to say that the top is in now, but I have no doubt that the technical damage for further bullish case in the coming month is done. For bears, they need a follow-through in the next few days to firmly establish their reign.

1. AKAM: S1 on top if it spikes towards 52.5/54.3 (EMA50) use a tight stop, IT=50.

2. DVN: DT-CTT between 63.7/65 and 67/67.6 use very tight stops.

3. OCR: DT-CTT between today's low 40.5 and high=43.79 use very tight stops, EMA200=43.5, EMA50=41.2, don't trade the mid-range.

4. SONS: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 7.42 and 7.9 on relatively light volume. it was a blow-out Q, and the vague guidance was good. The problem is if all the good news have already been priced in the current share price, which rose over 50% since mid-Nov. The lukewarm reaction in AH was not bullish, to say the least. Unless it can break 8.05 tomorrow, short might be the profitable way in the short-term, especially if it breaks 7.4. Key support at 7 and then around 6.5. Since the report was pretty good, a lot of bulls may buy on the way down, therefore, unless the volume is heavy, don't expect it nose-diving, especially above the 7.2(EMA50) level, be patient with the short-setup, be decisive when key support is breached, and be nimble when taking profits.

5. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 63, IDS=63.7, CS>63, IT=EMA50=61.1.

Daily Calls -- Weds Feb 28, 2007

Even though the indices are likely to go down further in the coming days, I don't think bulls are done without putting up with some fights. I will still consider some DT-L when strong stocks spike towards their key support levels, but profits must be taken quickly. In the meantime, I will be a bit patient with the short setup, hoping some kind of rebound..

1. AAPL: DT-L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 82 with a tight stop, IT=EMA50=66.2. Also consider S1 on top if it spikes towards 86.6 with a stop just above.

2. ADSK: reported Q4 in AH, traded mostly between 37.7 and 39, key S/R: around 35.6, around 37.3, EMA200=36.3, near 40, 41, 41.83 (day high).

3. BIDU: speculative DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 100, use EMA200=98.2 as stop reference.

4. COH: L1 on bottom, entry zone 42.5-43.5 with stop just below 42.5.

5. CTRP: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 53 with a stop just below.

6. DHI: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 25, with a stop just below.

7. DVN: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 63.5 with a stop just below 63.

8. ESRX: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 72.4(EMA50)/72.6(EMA200) with a tight stop.

9. FFIV: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 70.5 with a stop just below.

10. FMCN: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 73 with a stop just below.

11. MRVL: SW-L2 on pullbacks, entry zone 19.2-20.1 (scaled entry), with a stop just below 19. IT=21.2.

12. NTES: L2 on bottom, entry zone 19-19.5 (EMA50), stop just below 19. EMA200=18.6.

13. NUE: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards key support around 56/58 use tight stops. Also consider S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=61.1 with stop around 61.5.

14. OCR: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=41.2 with a stop just below 41.

15. QCOM: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=39.2/EMA200=39.5 with stop just below 39.

16. RIMM: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=132.6 with a stop just below 132.

17. SONS: will report Q4 in AH, watch key S/R: 7, 7.2 (EMA50), 8.05.

18. X: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=81.3 use tight stops.

19. YHOO: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards support zone from 28.9(EMA200)/29(EMA50) to 30.

the question after the big down day

The restless "pigs" in the Chinese stock market rudely woke up the bears all around the world, who unleashed the long-depressed frustration and anger on tired and arrogant bulls, and the blood flooded the Street by the closing bell. Just like that, weeks of gains were wiped out. The surging volume and sharp decline will further pressure the market, the question is, if this is truly the reversal point of the multi-month uptrend, or do bulls still have the strength and pride to set-up yet another bear-trap?

Daily Calls -- Tues, Feb. 27, 2007

Bears start to gather but bulls have not show serious weakness, I feel that market is at a very subtle stage and sizable movement is on the way...

1. AAPL: DT-L3 if it spikes towards 86.6 use EMA50=86.3 as stop reference.

2. ADSK: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards 43 with a stop just above, IT=41.

3. AMD: L1 at bottom, entry zone 15.1=15.3, stop just below 14.8, IT=16.5

4. BIDU: speculative S3 on top as it approaches EMA50=114.7 on low volumes, resistance zone 114-118.

5. ERTS: S2 on top, entry zone=52.5-53.5, stop just above 53.8.

6. FMCN: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 79.9 and 88.7, but mostly between 84.5 (nearly day's high) and 87.3. Watch for BMC open to determine the direction of trading, key S/R, EMA50=77.3, around 80, around 81, around 84, 88.5 (recent all time high), 88.7 (AH high).

7. FNM: S1 on top, entry zone=59.5-60.2, stop just above 60.3.

8. MDRX: S1 on top, use EMA50=28.2 and EMA10=28.4 as stop references, IT=26.

9. MRVL: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 19.7 and 21.2, but mostly around 20.8. May consider the short side IF it cannot solidly break above at least 21.2 level, preferably 21.85. Key S/R: 19 (EMA50=19.2), around 20, 21.2, 21.85.

10. NTES: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 20.5 and 23.5, but mostly between 22.3 and 22.8, KEY S/R: around 20, 20.5 (around day and AH low), 23.5 (day, AH and recent high).

11. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 65.7 stop just above 66.

12. SONS: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 7.81 with a stop just below 7.8, looking for a pre-earning run.

13. TXN: SW-S3 on top, entry zone 31.8-32.5, stop just above 32.5, IT=EMA50=30.5. It may be topping out here.

Weekly Trading Calls -- Feb. 26 -- Mar. 2, 2007

Bulls tried to pull another re-run on the Friday just like they did on both Weds and Thurs, but bears managed to hold on to the fragile victory till the closing bell. Will bears be embolden by this and kick up a notch next week?

Some basic fact about the major indices:

• On the weekly charts, the up trend remain not only intact, but it is unchallenged.
• The up side momentum virtually diminished for all 3 indices, which may forecast the ending of straight-up movement and the arrival of side-way stage.
• Bearish divergences exist for several technical indicators for all the indices on the week charts.
• NASDAQ is the only winner of the major indices. If it continues its winning way next week, it may pull the market higher, but if it reverses in a hard way, with both SP500 and DOW already show some weakness, that would wake up a lot of bears.

My overall strategy for next week:

• long on the pullbacks of strong up-trending stocks, but don't buy the break-out.
• too early to short any stocks that are still making new highs so don't do it!!
• consider small speculative short positions on stocks approaching their recent high, but be ready to stop out the they have strong break-outs.
• except the small speculative short positions, be nimble to take profits, and be very cautious about the overnight positions.

Weekly Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: S2 on top if it spikes towards 93 with a stop just above; L2 only when it spikes towards 86.5 use EMA50=86.2 as stop references. Try not trade the mid range.

2. ADI: L1 on pullbacks, entry zone 36-36.6, stop just below 36, IT=38-39.5.

3. ADSK: Speculative S2 on top if it approaches 43/45, with a stop just above 45.2, IT=41, but it if it breaks through 40, it would be big.

4. AMD: remains extremely oversold, and now backs to the level of 2 years ago when the rally started. Weekly candles suggest bearishness may be topped out, but many other indicators point to further momentum decline. I see a fundamental support zone between 10.5 to 13.6, and IT zone between 17-18.5 for short-term rally if that occurs, need to be patient here for a possible SW-long entry.

5. AMZN: speculative SW-S2 on top if it approaches 42, stop just above 43.3, IT=48.

6. ANF: SW-S3 on top, entry zone 80.8-83, stop just above 83, IT=EMA50=77.6.

7. ANN: SW-S3 on top, entry zone 35.7-36, stop just above 36.3, IT=33.5.

8. BIDU: Speculative S3 on top when it spikes towards 112/115, use very tight stops. EMA50=114.8.

9. BOBJ: Speculative SW-S3 on top when it spikes towards 38, or S1 when it breaks 36, IT=33.5. EMA50=38.1, EMA10=38.4.

10. BRCM: speculative SW-S3 on top around 37, stop just above 37.5, IT=MA50=33.1. Very good RSW/RWD ratio, but probability is not very good.

11. CRM: speculative SW-S3 on top if it approaches 50, stop just above 50.5, IT=44.

12. DVN: SW-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 65 with a stop just below, IT=68.5.

13. ENER: SW-S3 on top if it spikes towards 33, use EMA50=33.6 as stop reference, IT=30.

14. ERTS: CTT between 31.5 (MA50) and 54.5 use very tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

15. ESRX: speculative SW-S3 on top, entry range 78.5-79.5, stop just above 80, IT=75.

16. FFIV: speculative SW-S3 on top, entry range=78.5-80.5, stop just above 81, IT=EMA50=73.7.

17. FNM: CTT-S2 on top, entry zone=59-60, stop just above 60.3, IT=56.

18. MDT: S1 on top if it spikes towards 52, with stop zone=52.6-53(EMA50), IT=49.

19. MRVL: will report Q4 on Monday AMC, watch key resistance zone 21-22, and support around 18, consider a long position if there is a solid break above 22 after the report, next resistance zone=26-27.

20. NTAP: it may break-out if NASDAQ breaks out next week. May consider a speculative long if it spikes towards 39.5, IDS just below 39 and CS=39.4, IT=41.5?

21. NTES: will report Q4 on Monday AMC, keep eyes on key support around 19 and resistance around 23.

22. NUE: CTT between 61 and 66/67 use tight stops, bias slightly bearish, don't trade the mid range.

23. NVDA: SW-S2 on top, entry zone 33-34, stop just above 35, IT=30, EMA50=33.5.

24. SNDK: looks like testing 1 yr low at 37.34 is inevitable, triple MACD histogram divergence on both daily and weekly charts, but is it time to catch this falling knife?

25. SONS: will report Q4 on Feb. 28 AMC, keep eye on the key support around 7 and resistance near 8. I feel that the current share price already reflect a stellar report, therefore I may consider a small speculative short position just below 7.8 going into the earning.....

26. WFMI: speculative SW-S3 on top if it spikes towards 52 with a stop just above 52.5, IT=47. I feel that it has a good chance to fill the gap.

27. WLT: SW-S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=25.8 with a stop just above 26, IT=22.

28. X: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards support zone 87-90, RSK/RWD not attractive.

Daily Calls Fri. Feb 23, 2007

Today was a re-run of yesterday, bears obviously tried, but tech bulls barely budged, as NASDAQ made and closed at a new high. The key is on the NASDAQ now, a >1% move on either direction may dictate the near-term direction of the market. My take? just like the doji candle on NASDAQ's daily chart...

1. AAPL: L3 on pullback with a stop just below 88.2/88.5, IT=91.

2. ADI: L1 on pullback, entry zone 36.1-36.51, stop just below 36.

3. ANF: DT-CTT between 79.3 and 81.4, bias slightly bearish.

4. COH: CTT between 49 and 51 use very tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

5. CRM: CTT between 45 and 49, don't trade the mid range.

6. ERTS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 54.5 with a stop just above.

7. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 67 with a stop just above, IT=63.

8. SONS: S2 if it breaks 7.5, IT=7.25, stop just above 7.51.

9. WFMI: L1 on pullback use 50.4/51 as stop.

10. INTU: reported Q4 in AH, traded mostly between 30.18 and 31.1, with extremes between 29.7 and 31.6. KEY S/R: 28.54 (recent low), 30, 30.5 (EMA200), 30.86 (day close), 31.82 (day high).

Daily Calls -- Thur Feb. 22, 2007

Even though both DOW and SP500 declined today, I doubt anyone would seriously consider this a winning day for bears, with NASDAQ just a hair away from the recent high, things just look bleak for bears. Sure, the herd mentality may be blindly bullish, but the question is, if the time has arrived for those with insights and visions to take an opposite stand??

1. AAPL: L1 on pullback use 88.2-88.5 as the stop zone, key resistances around 90 and 93.

2. ADI: reported Q4 in AH, traded mostly between 34.4 and and 35.3, solidly above 9 month high around 34.5, resistance around 36.5. Trade on the long side.

3. ANF: reported Q4 in AH, traded mostly between 78.6 and 81. Look for the short side if it stays below 80, with IT=EMA50=77.4. A close below EMA50 may warrant a hold on short position.

4. COH: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 50.4 with a stop just above 51, IT=49.

5. CRM: issued warning in AH, traded mostly between 44.7 and 47. Look for the short side if it stays below 47, IT=EMA50=43.6.

6. DVN: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 65.2/66 use tight stops., IT=67.3

7. ERTS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 54.5 with a stop just above.

8. ESRX: speculative DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards 80.6 with a stop just above.

9. RIMM: L2 on pullback use 139 as stop, break out imminent? (IT=150).

10. SNDK: speculative L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 39, stop just below 39.8.

11. WFMI: reported Q4 in AH and the MA news, traded mostly between 46.8 and 48.4, key S/R: 46.6 (EMA50), 47.5 (AH support), 48, 48.4 (AH resistance), 50.

Daily Calls -- Weds Feb. 21, 2007

Bulls are becoming invincible, but I am yet to see the capitulation on bears part. These days, every time when Feds speak, the market rallies, I wonder if the same show will be on tomorrow following the release of Feds FOMC minutes.

1. AAPL: L1 if it breaks 86.7 on increasing volume, stop just below 85.5, key resistance zone near 90.

2. BIDU: CTT between 101 and 112 use very tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

3. CHAP: speculative S2 on top, entry zone=51-52, stop just above 52, IT=49.

4. CTRP: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 64.3/66 use tight stops.

5. DVN: speculative DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 64, stop just below 63.7, EMA200=65.2.

6. ERTS: S2 on top if it spikes towards 54 with stop just above 54.5.

7. FMCN: speculative SW-S3 on top if it spikes towards 86, stop just above 88.5, IT=EMA50

8. MRVL: S2 on top if it spikes towards 21, CS>EMA200=20.5, IDS>21.12, IT=19.

9. NUE: Speculative S1 on top if it spikes towards 65.4 with stop just above 66.1, IT=63.

9. RIMM: DT-L2 on pullback if it spikes towards 138.5, with a stop just below 138, it is poised to break out here.

10. SNDK: DT-L2 if it spikes towards 40 with a stop just below 39.7 or towards 39 with a stop just below 38.8, IT=42.

11. SONS: speculative DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards 7.8/8 use very tight stops.

Weekly Trading Calls -- Feb20 -23, 2007

Did not get time to make the detailed analysis of the market and stocks on my list, so here is the quick one:

On major indices: up-trend intact, but RSK/RWD ratios may not be good for new long position here.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 83/83.6 and 86.5 use tight stop, if it breaks out this range in heavy volume, trade along the direction of the break out.

2. ADBE: L2 on pullback if it spikes towards MA10=38.9 or MA50=39.2, IT=42.

3. AEOS: S2 on top if it spikes towards 33, stop just above 33.1, MA50=32

4. AMD: SW-L2, entry zone 14.7-15, stop just below 14.45, IT=16

5. BIDU: speculative L3 at bottom if it spikes towards 101, stop just below 100. May consider DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards 111, with stop just above 112.

6. CTRP: CTT between 57 and 64.3, don't trade the mid range, MA50=63.7.

7. DVN: CTT between MA200=65.2 and MA50=68.1 use tight stops.

8. FMCN: speculative S3 on top, entry zone=85-88, stop just above 88.5, IT=76.

more later....

Backtesting with Ameritrade's StrategyDesk

With the help from a friend, I have started to backtest with Ameritrade's StrategyDesk, and so far, I am stunned by what I saw from a few tests, basically, for one long strategy, I am looking at anywhere between 200 to 400% profit for 40 stocks on my list using the real day and intra-day data between 1/1/2005 and 2/16/2007. This is more than shocking, and I am going to devote more time in the next 2 weeks to test more strategies and stocks, and I will post some of the findings here. If you have used StrategyDesk or more sophisticated TraderStation, please share your comments here.

Personally, while I am totally amazed with the test results so far, I just cannot believe that one can make money such way, it is just toooooo damn easy to be real.

Daily Calls -- Friday Feb. 16. 2007

Bulls enjoyed another up day on relatively light volumes. Tomorrow is option-expiration day, unless bears can put on some serious pressures (maybe using MSFT's news?), it could be another grinding-up day.

1. AEOS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 32.8 with a stop just above 33.

2. BIDU: L2 on bottom, entry zone 102-104.5, stop just below 101.7, IT=110.

3. DVN: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 65.2/66 use a tight stop

4. FMCN: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=75.7 use a tight stop, IT=80.

5. MDRX: SW-S1 on rebound, entry zone=28-28.5, stop just above 29, IT=26. EMA50=28.3,

6. NUE: S2 on top if it spikes towards 66, stop just above 66.1, IT=64.3

7. QCOM: L2 on pullback if it spikes towards 40.7, stop just below 40.2.

8. X: L2 on pullback if it spikes towards 88/89 use tight stops.

Daily Calls Feb. 15, 2007

Even though the major indices may continue the break-out, I don't see attractive RSK/RWD for new long positions. Initiating short positions at this stage are very risky, but the RSK/RWD ratio could be very handsome, the solution? Be very stringent about any short-on-top setups, especially make sure that the stops are very close, and use scaled entry with no more than 1/3 full size as the initial entry, add to the positions ONLY when the setups unfold as expected.

1. AAPL: CTT between 83 and 85.6 use very tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

2. AEOS: speculative SW-S1 on top if it spikes towards 33 with a stop just above 33.2, IT=30.5

3. ANF: speculative SW-S3 on top, entry zone 83-84, stop just above 84, IT=80.

3. CTRP: speculative SW-S2 on top, entry zone 63.8 (EMAS50) to 64.3, stop just above 64.3.

4. DVN: CTT between 66 and 68.5 use tight stops, bias is neutral.

5. FMCN: CTT between 75 and 82, don't trade the mid range.

6. NUE: speculative S1 on top, entry zone 64.6-65.5, stop just above 65.5.

7. SONS: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 7.8 with stop just above 7.8, IT=7.5.

8. WLT: speculative L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 23.7 with a stop just below, IT=25.5.

9. X: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 89/90 use a tight stop.

10. BIDU: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 105.8 and 119.9, solid S/R around: 106, 110, 112, 117, 119.

Thoughts on the day

Both DOW and SP500 had a solid break-out day today, and NASDAQ is within a striking distance of its recently high. The market obviously liked what Bernanke had to say. For the stocks on my list, while a few advanced on good volumes, majority came in notably light volumes. I am guessing that a lot of short covering is going on right now, which could intensify going into Friday's option expiration if bears could not muster any meaningful counter attack tomorrow.

I am back!

Damn it, just lost the entire post due to a power shortage, 2 hr in the sink. I am going to be brief here:

On major indices: up momentum continues to drop, but the trend is intact, new highs likely for both SP500 and DOW.

Daily Calls for Feb. 14

1. AAPL: CTT between 83 and 86, bias neutral, don't trade the mid range. EMA50=85.9.

2. ADBE: SW-L2 if it spikes towards 37.5, IDS just below 37, CS<37.5, IT=40.

3. AEOS: SW-S2 on top, entry zone 31.8-33, stop just above 33, IT=29.8.

4. ANF: Speculative SW-S3 on top, entry zone=81.5-85, stop just above 85, IT=EMA50=76.3.

5. BIDU: CTT between 106/109 and 115/117(EMA50), bias on the short side, don't trade the mid-range.

6. CEPH: L1 on pullback, entry zone 74-74.6, stop just below 74, IT=78.

7. COST: Speculative SW-S2 on top, entry zone 56.6-57.25, stop just above 57.5, IT=EMA50=54.9.

8. CTRP: speculative L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=53.4 with stop just below 53, also, consider S2 on top if it spikes towards key R around 60 and EMA50=63.9.

9. DHI: SW-L3 if it spikes towards EMA50=27.2 use a tight stop, IT=30.

10. DVN: DT-L2 at bottom if it spikes towards MA200=65.2 with a stop just below 65, IT=EMA50=68.2.

11. NUE: speculative SW-S1 on top, entry zone 64.9-66, stop just above 66.3, IT=63.

12. WLT: speculative SW-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 24, stop just below 23.7, IT=26.

13. X: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 89, stop just above 89, It=85.