Saturday, January 20, 2007

Weekly Trading Calls -- Jan. 22-26, 2007

Below are the main points of my trading strategy for next week:

  • Tech sector/NASDAQ: I will closely monitor the market reactions to the Q reports of the major tech names. I want to know if last week's pattern persists.
  • Closely monitor the semi sector. SOX closed below MA200 for the first time in 2 months, if it fails to bounce back convincingly, NASDAQ could be really in trouble.
  • Energy sector: I may consider some rebound plays IF the oil decline is bottomed out for the near term.
  • Retailer sector: IF oil is bottomed for the near-term, I will look for speculative sell-on-top setups as the sector is at new high.
  • If NASDAQ broke its MA50, avoid SW-long trades and more actively search short-on-top plays.
The Focus List:

1. AAPL: S2 on top if it spikes towards key resistance levels at 90, 92, 93 and 95. Also, consider L2 on top if it spikes towards 82, 85 and MA50=86.6. The bias is slightly on the short side. 300 share, 0.5 stop.

2. AMD: will report Jan. 23 AH, I suspect the bad news are baked in now (like MOT), and I may take a speculative long position (300 share, 0.4 stop) if it spikes down towards 17 (stop just below 16.8).

3. BIDU: L2 on pullback (100 share, $1 stop), if it spikes towards key support levels around: 113, 114.1 (MA50), 115.5, 117, 119 and 120. IT=125.

4. COH: will report BMO on Jan 23. I might look for a speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 50, with a stop just above 50.

5. EBAY: will report Jan. 24 AH. Key S/R: 25.5, 28.6, 30.8 (MA50), 31.7 (MA200), 33.3, 34, 35.

6. YHOO: will report Jan. 23 AH, Key S/R: 25, 26, 27.1 (MA50), 28.6 (MA200), 29.88 (recent high).

7. MSFT: will report Jan 25 AH, Key S/R: 27.5 (MA200), 28.8, 29.7 (MA50), around 30.2, 31.45 (recent high).


The rest:

1. ADBE: SW-S1 on top (100 share initial entry IE , 500 share full position FP), entry zone 39.5-40.5, stop just above 40.8, IT=MA200=36.5 if it breaks key support around 37.25.

2. ADSK: L2 at the bottom (200 share, 0.7 stop), if it spikes towards MA50=40.6, IDS just below 40, CS=40.5, IT=43.

3. BRCM: S2 on top (100 share IE, 300 share FP, 0.6 stop) if it spikes towards MA200=31.9, IDS just above MA50=32.3, CS just above 32., IT=27.

4. DVN: L2 at bottom (100 share IE, 300 share FP), entry zone=64.5 (MA200)-66.33, IT=70.

5. FFIV: speculative S3 on top (50 share IE, 150 share FP), entry zone 78.5-80.5, stop just above 81, IT= MA50=72.8.

6. FMCN: L3 on pullback (100 share, $1 stop)) if it spikes towards 71 or 73, IT=78.

7. KONG: speculative L3 (500 share, 0.1 stop) if it spikes towards 8 with a stop just below 7.95, IT=MA50=8.6

8. LRCX: S1 on rebound (200 share IE, 400 FP), entry zone 48.4-48.9, stop just above 49. MA200=46.7, MA50=51.2.

9. MOT: SW-L2 on bottom (300 share IE, 600 FP), entry zone 18.81-19.01, stop just below 18.58, IT=MA50=20.6.

10. NTAP: SW-S2 on rebound (100 share IE, 300 FP), entry zone 37.5-38.8, stop just above 39, IT=35.5, MA50=39.

11. NVDA: SW-S2 on rebound (100 share IE, 300 FP), entry zone=32.5-34.9 (MA50), stop just above 35, IT=30.

12. RACK: speculative L2 at bottom (100 share IE, 200 share FP), if it spikes towards 17, stop around 15; IT=22.

13. SONS: L1 on pullback (1000 share, 0.1 stop) if it spikes towards 7 or MA50=6.5 use very tight stops).

14. STP: CTT between MA50=31.9 and 37 use very tight stops (300 share, 0.3 stop), don't trade the mid range.

15. TOMO: speculative SW-L3 at bottom (300 share IE, 500 FP) if it spikes towards 13.5 with a stop just below 13.25, IT=MA50=14.7

16. UNH: L2 on pullback (200 share IE, 400 FP), entry zone 52-52.52, stop just below 51.9, IT=54.

17. LFC: SW-S3 on top(100 share IE, 300 FP), entry zone 48.8-49.5, stop just above 50, IT=MA50=42.5.

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