Thursday, January 18, 2007

Daily Calls -- Friday Jan. 18. 2007

Considering today's market action and IBM's decline in AH, I feel that the market will likely to gap down on the open tomorrow. With NASDAQ poised to test its MA50, fading the opening gap may be too risky. I will be very careful on any long-at-bottom plays -- will need to see an intra-day bottom on NASDAQ before taking any long positions. I need to be extra careful on longs of any semis, as SOXX broke down its 2-month trading range and closed convincing below its MA200. On the other hand, I am also hesitated to chase the bears tomorrow. One other note, the volatility is likely to kick up a notch in the coming days, be very nimble, and either take quick profits or raise stops when on the long side.

Focus List:

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between MA50=86.5 and 92/93 use tight stops (300 share, 0.5 stop), the bias is on the short side. It closed almost below the key 89-90 support zone, and drop to around 88.6 in AH.

2. IBM: S1 on top (200 share) if it spikes towards 95/96.5/98.5, OR if tomorrow's BM opening confirms further downside signal. The AH reaction to its Q report has been clearly bearish as it declines steadily and now even went under its MA=94.9. AH support seen around 93.3, next support zone is 91-92.

3. MOT: will release Q4 BMO tomorrow, consider CTT between 17.9 and 19.25 (2 week trading range). May also consider speculative L2 at the bottom (initial entry 200 share, $0.6 stop, 400 share full position) if it spikes down towards 17 or lower as the immediate reaction, IT=19, I suspect all the bad news are priced in by now.

The Rest:

1. ADSK: L3 at bottom if it spikes towards 41.6/40.5 (300 share, 0.5 stop), MA50=40.5.

2. BIDU: L2 at bottom (100 share, $1 stop) if it spikes towards 115.5, 117 or 119, IT=125.

3. CHINA: L2 on pullback (300 share, 0.3 stop), entry zone 9.25-9.61, stop just below 9.25.

4. FMCN: L3 on pullback (200 share, 0.5 stop) if it spikes towards 71 with a stop just below.

5. NTAP: S2 on rebound (300 share, 0.5 stop), entry zone 38-38.5, IDS=38.8, DS=38.3, IT=MA200=35.8. MA50=39.

6. RIMM: speculative L3 at bottom (100 share, $1 stop), if it spikes towards 115/118. Consider S1 on rebound if it spikes towards 127 with stop just above 128.

7. SONS: L1 on pullback, entry zone 6.81-6.91, stop just below 6.8. MA50=6.5.

8. STP: L3 on pullback if it spikes towards 32/33.5 (300 share, 0.4 stop), MA50=31.7.

9. UNH: L3 on pullback if it spikes towards 51.4 (MA50) or 52 (300 share, 0.3 stop), IT=54.5.

10. X: speculative L2 at bottom if it spikes towards 69 with stop just below 68.8 (300 share, 0.3 stop), IT=71.

11. CHRW: speculative SW-S2 on top (100 share intial entry) around 45 with a stop just above 45.5, IT=41.5. MA50=42.9, MA200=43.3.

No comments: