Daily Calls -- Weds Dec. 27, 2006

The market bounced back today and recovered most of last Friday's loss on even lighter volumes. It is likely that the rebound will continue throughout this week as people look for the santa rally. Short sell at the current levels is probably risky, but swing long could be riskier. I will look for some day trades at both direction if I have key S/R back them up.

1. AAPL: consider L3 use 80.9 as stop, IT=MA50=83.9.

2. AKAM: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 51/52 use tight stops.

3. BIDU: CTT between 110 and 116 use tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

4. DVN: CTT between 65 and 69.1 (MA50) use tight stops, don't trade the mid range. MA10=69.3

5. ESRX: L2 on bottom use MA10=71.6 or MA50=70 as stop references.

6. FMCN: L2 on bottom use MA50=65.1 as stop reference.

7. GOOG: S2 on top if it spikes towards MA50=466.7 (MA10=466.5) use tight stops.

8. RIMM: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=124.5, but also watch for S3 on top if it spikes towards today's high at 130 or MA10=131.5.

9. SHLD: S2 on top if it spikes towards today's high=168 or MA50=170.7 (MA10=170.5) use tight stops.

10. STP: L1 when it breaks 33.5 with a stop just below 33, IT=34.25. Or what for pullback use 32.5 as stop.

11. UNH: L1 on pullback if it spikes towards MA10=52, or around 50.5, and finally MA50=49.6.

Weekly Calls Dec. 16-29, 2006

On last week's trading calls and executions:

While the W/L ratio for the weekly calls came in below average at 1:1 last week, the ratio for the daily calls reached near 3-month high at 3.3:1. On the execution side, I started the week quite positively as I successfully overcome the "fear" factor on several occasions and made the right decision. However, the old problem regained its footing as the week progressed. The frustration further induced some mental mistakes late in the week and in the end turned a promising week into a disappointing one. Nonetheless, I did have some success in dealing with the "fear" factor this week, and each time I did it, it felt extremely positive. I will continue to focus on the issue in the coming days. In addition, I need to avoid some low-level mental mistakes. I plan to write up some simple trading guidance/rules that I can refer to before start of each trading session.

On the market:

The market fell pretty hard last week. The divergence between NASDAQ and SP500/DOW finally went to bears' way, as NASDAQ led the decline with a over 2.2% weekly loss. On the weekly charts, for the 2nd time in past four weeks, bearish engulfing candles were formed for both NASDAQ and SP500. Bearish divergences of Stochastic and MACD histogram are also clear for all major indices. The action in NASDAQ is particularly ominous for bulls as it failed to break the Nov. high again and now poised to test lower boundary of the 6 week trading range near 2388, as well as MA50 around 2391. On the daily charts, similar cases can also be made for all major indices, especially the NASDAQ which seems to form a double top. Some basic statements can be made here:
(1). the momentum for the 4 month long up trend continues to diminish for 4th weeks.
(2). bearish divergences for all major indices become rampant.
(3). As the market leader, NASDAQ seems topping out.
(4). The reversal of the up trend requires, at the minimum, that NASDAQ closed below it MA50, something yet to occur.

On next week:

The market dropped almost every day for last week, and I expect some kind of rebound in next week, probably aided by the notion of the "santa" rally. While it is possible that SP500/DOW may make new highs in the next week or two, such feat seems difficult, if not impossible, for NASDAQ. At this stage, the following strategy should be taken into consideration:
(1). Don't go long with the break-outs.
(2). Don't chase the bears just yet.
(3). Actively seek the short-the-top setups for stocks that attempt to rebound.
(4). Play long-on-bottom for some very strong stocks that have fallen to their key support levels, but be quick when taking profits.

Trading calls:

Group 1 -- The short-on-top plays (No long plays allowed for this group)

1. AAPL: No long plays until it approaches 78. S1 on top when it appoaches key resistances: 84 (MA50), 85.6 (MA10), 87, 89.5-90. It has droped on high volumes for 4 straight weeks now, there could be some rebound, but big-boys' view and action on this stock is pretty clear.

2. AFFX: S2 on top when it spikes towards 24.5 (both MA50 and MA10), with a tight stop just above that level, IT=20.5.

3. CHAP: S2 on top, entry point 1 around 45.2 (MA10), entry point 2 just below 47, IT=40. MA50=43.5.

4. EBAY: S2 on top if it spikes towards MA50=31.5 (MA10=31.6), IT=28.5.

5. ERTS: S1 on top if it spikes towards MA200=52.8 or MA50=54.5 use tight stops, IT=49.

6. JCG: S1 on top if it spikes towards 39.3/40 use tight stops OR when it breaks 37.4, IT=MA50=35.9.

7. SHLD: S1 on top, entry point 1=around MA50=170.8, entry point 2=around 174. Also consider S1 when it breaks 167, IT=164.

8. TIF: speculative S3 on top when it spikes towards 43, stop just above 44, IT=38.

Group 2 -- The long-on-bottom plays

1. ADSK: L1 on bottom when it sparks down towards 39 (MA50) (stop just below 39) or 37.4 (stop just below 37).

2. AKAM: L1 on bottom when it approaches key support levels at 50, 50.5 (MA50), 51, 52, 53; use tight stops if larger size is opened.

3. DVN: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 65, use MA200=64.2 as stop references.

4. ESRX: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=69.9 use a tight stop. MA50=73.1

5. FFIV: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=69.2 or 68 use tight stops.

6. FMCN: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 65.5 use MA50=65 as stop reference.

7. LRCX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 47 with a stop just below it.

8. MDRX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=26.1/25.5 use tight stops.

9. MRVL: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 18.3 use 18 as stop reference, IT=20.

10. NVDA: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 35 use 34.5 as stop reference, IT=37.5

11. STP: L1 on bottom, entry zone 30-31.6, use MA200=29.7 as stop reference. MA 50=29.3.

12. TOMO: L2 on bottom when it spikes towards 14.8 with stop just below MA50=14.5.

13. UNH: L1 on bottom when it spikes towards 53, stop just below 52.5. IT=57. MA200=49.9.

14. WLT: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA200=24.9 use tight stop, IT=28.

Group 3 -- The range-bound CTT plays

1. BIDU: L1 on bottom only when it spikes towards key support around 106.6 (MA50), and 110 use key stops. Also consider S3 on top when it approaches key resistances around 115.5, 117 (MA50=116.9), and 119.5. Don't initiate any positions that are far away from key S/R levels.

2. CEPH: CTT between 67 and 71 (MA50) use tight stops. MA10=71.1

3. RIMM: CTT between MA50=124.4 and 140 use tight stops,

4. SONS: CTT between 6/6.1 and 6.7/6.9 use tight stops, MA50=5.9.

5. X: CTT between MA50=70.6 and 75 use tight stops. If it closes below MA50, it may test 68.

Daily Calls -- Friday Dec. 22, 2006

The NASDAQ bears finally gained up hand today, dragging down both SP and DOW with it. The chip sector is on the verge of breaking down, and it that occurs, the NASDAQ is likely to at least test its MA50 around 2391. Before that happens, the major indices are still well in the recent trading range and bulls still have the reason to buy the dip. Since several tech names released good Q4 reports and had sizable gains in AH (RIMM, RHT, MU), let's see if they can lead the tech rebound tomorrow. Given the anticipated low volumes for the remaining of the year, the major indices are likely to be range bound before 2007, which means, trading with key S/R may provide the best bets.

Focus list:

1. AAPL: CTT between 82.2 and 87 use tight stops, try not trade the mid-range. MA10=86.4, MA50=84.1.

2. AFFX: S1 on top use 24.7 (MA10)/24.6(MA50) as stop reference, IT=21.75.

3. BIDU: CTT at 114 and 119.5 use tight stops, also consider S2 on top near 116/117/118. Be quick to take profits the CTT stops moving in anticipated direction.

4. CEPH: S2 on top if it spikes towards 71.1 (MA50) use 71.4 (MA10) as stop reference., IT=67.

5. RIMM: reported Q4 in AH, beat the estimates and raised guidance, traded mostly between 139 and 143.5, key levels: 139-140 (key support and solid AH support around 139.8); 142 (AH resistance), 143.66 (recent 52 wk high), 143.5 (AH high).

Keep an eye on list:

1. AKAM: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 53, stop just below 52.7.

2. FMCN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 65.5, stop just below MA50=64.8.

3. SNDK: speculative L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 42, stop just below 42, IT=44.3.

4. SONS: CTT between 6.44 and 6.88 use tight stops, don't trade the mid-range.

5. STP: L1 on bottom, entry point1=near 32, entry point2=near 31.5, use tight stops.

6. X: Speculative L2 on bottom, entry point1=near 72, entry point2=around MA50=70.5, use tight stops.

7. ENER: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 35, stop just below 34.9, IT=38

8. CTRP: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 60, stop just below 59.9.

Daily Calls -- Thurs Dec. 21, 2006

Once again, the market gaped up at the open,only to sold down throughout the day. It appears that the NASDAQ bears are holding on well despite the unfavorable seasonality pattern. It might be time to actively seek short-on-top setups with very good risk/reward ratios.

1. AAPL: S1 on top when it spikes towards key resistance levels: 87.1 (MA10), 89.3 and 90.

2. AEOS: CTT between 29.5 and 31.5 (MA10) use tight stops, bias is on the short side. MA50=30.8.

3. BIDU: CTT between 114 and 121, keep eyes on key support around 105.5, 116.5, and resistances around 117.8, 119.5, and 121.

4. CHAP: CTT between 42 and 45.5 use tight stops, bias is on the short side. MA50=43.5.

5. ESRX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 72 - 73.3, stop just below 72.

6. SNDK: CTT between 42.2 and 44.4 use very tight stops.

7. SONS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 6.85, stop just above 6.9; L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 6.2/6.3 use tight stops.

8. STP: currently long at 33.03, stop 1 just below 32.8, stop 2 around 32.3. L2 on bottom from 31.5 to MA10=32, stop just below 31.5.

9. UNH: L1 on bottom, entry zone 53.3-53.6, stop just below 53.

10. YHOO: S1 on rebound if it spikes towards 26, MA10=26.5, MA50=26.6, IT=24. It is breaking down here.

11. COGN: reported Q4 in AH, beat the estimates and raised guidance. Traded between 40.7 and 43, but mostly between 41-42.5. Key levels: 39.7 (MA50), 40.7 (AH low), 41.84 (day close, also MA10), 42.37 (day high), 42.5 (AH resistance), 43 (AH high), 43.55, 44.19 (52 wk high).

Daily Calls -- Weds. Dec. 20, 2006

Looks like a tug of war between the NASDAQ bears and SP/DOW bulls is intensifying. I am not sure if anything definitive will be determined before 2007, but I get a feeling that the market is going to be choppier than ever.

1. AAPL: CTT between 83.6 and MA10( 88), also consider S2 on top when it approach key resistance around 87. The bias is on the short side. It tested MA50 (84) today with success.

2. ADBE: S2 on top if it spikes towards 42, stop just above 42.3. May consider L2 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=39.2.

3. BIDU: CTT between 115.5 and 119.5 use tight stops, try not to trade the mid of the range. Consider trade along the break-down if it moves out the range.

3. DVN: CTT between 65/67 and 70.8 (MA10)/72.5 use tight stops.

4. ESRX: L1 on pullback, entry zone 70.5-71.5, stop just below 70.5, IT=73.5.

5. GOOG: S2 on top, entry zone 469-477, stop just above 478.5.

6. MDRX: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=25.9, stop just below it, IT=28.2.

7. NTRI: CTT between 61.2 and 67.5 use tight stops.

8. RBAK: L1 on pullback use MA10=19 as stop reference.

9. SNDK: L2 either when it spikes towards 42.3/43 or when it breaks 44.4 use tight stops.

10. SONS: CTT between 6.2 and 6.7 use tight stops. DT bias is on the short side.

11. STP: L2 on pullback, entry zone 31.5=32.8, stop just below 31.5.

12. UNH: L1 on pullback, 51-52, stop just below 51. It is approaching its 6 month high around 52.84.

13. X: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 72 or MA50=70.4 use very tight stops.

Daily calls Tuesday 19, 2006

The market gapped up in the morning, but once again was systematically sold down and closed in red by the end. The bearish action was particularly evident in NASDAQ, which failed to break the Nov. high last week and now seemingly leading the way down. Looking at the mini-breaking down of some leading tech names (AAPL, GOOG), I start to doubt if the NASDAQ can hold steady before Jan. 2, 2007, let along rise above its Nov high.

1. AAPL: CTT between MA10 (84) and MA50 (88), also consider S2 on top when it approach key resistance around 87. The bias is on the short side. If it breaks down MA50, it will test next support around 82.4.

2. ADBE: S2 on top if it spikes towards 42, stop just above 42.3. May conisder L2 on bottom if it spikes towards MA10=40.6 or MA50=39.2.

2. AKAM: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 53, stop just below 52.7. MA10=53.9.

3. AMZN: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=38, stop just below 37.7.

4. BIDU: CTT when it approaches key S/R levels, 110, 111, 116, 119.5, 121, 123, 125.

5. CRM: consider S1 if it breaks key support around 37.6, IT=35, stop around 39.1 (both MA10 and MA50). May also consider S2 on top if it spikes towards 39, use MA50 as stop references.

6. DVN: L2 on bottom, entry point 1=around 67.3, stop just below 67; entry point 2= just above 65, stop just below 65.

7. ESRX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 68-69.5, stop just below 68, IT=73.1. MA10=69.2, MA50=69.4.

8. GOOG: S1 on top, entry zone 1=465-468.2 (MA50), entry zone 2=4.72-4.77. It sure looks like breaking down.

9. MDRX: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=25.9, stop just below it, IT=28.2.

10. MEDX: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 13.75, stop just below MA50=13.4, IT=16.

11. NTRI: speculative L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 59.6, stop just below 59, further support around MA200=56.8.

12. RACK: S2 on top if it spikes towards 32.2/33.6 use tight stops.

13. RIMM: L2 on bottom, entry zone 127-129, stop just below 127.

14. SONS: speculative S2 on top if it spikes towards 7, stop just above 7.01. Consider L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA10=6.6 and 6.4, use tight stops.

15. STP: L1 on bottom, entry zone 1=33-33.5, stop just below 32.8; entry zone 2=31.5-32.4, stop just below MA10=31.5. IT=37.

16. X: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=70.2, stop just below 70.

17. SNDK: DT-L2 on bottom, entry zone 43-43.5, stop just below 43.

Weekly Calls Dec. 18-22, 2006

On last week's trading calls and executions

The W/L ratio of both weekly and daily calls came in just above 2:1, which was not bad at all considering the volatile market we had for the past week.

Last week's execution, on the other hand, was terrible. Even though I planed the week before that I will force myself into the trades when a pre-planed setup arrived, but I largely failed to do that. In addition, I had multiple winning positions which I failed to let me run at all, often left more than 80% of profits on the table. I felt increasingly frustrated and disgusted about the fact that I just could not overcome the "fear" factor to stick with the well-thought trading calls and the technical signals. It is a terribly feeling the see such a gap between what I am capable to do and what I actually did. I really really need to come up with some concrete protocol to tackle this psychological issue.

I have been dissecting my decision-making process. I think that when I abandoned the plans, I was griped by the fear of losing. Specifically, fear of losing profits for the winning positions, or fear of suffering loss after entering a setup. Now, let's look at the facts on these two types of fear:
** The fear of losing profits for the winning positions: there is no doubt that sometimes, had I not taken the small profits, I would've lost the profits or even incur small losses. However, if I stick with the trading plans and always let the winners run, very likely that at least 50% of the winners would generate at least 3 times more of the profits, which should more than enough offset the possible loss of the small profits or even small loss resulting from the existing practice.
** The fear of suffering loss after entering a setup: it is true such risk always exists, however, the W/L ratio of my trading calls have been basically around 2:1 or better, which means if I act on every call, the winning chance beats out the losing by 2:1. What's more compelling is that I often have a very close by stop-loss point for each setup, which means that the loss is very limited even if the trade fails. On the other hand, if I can let the winners run here, the actually W/L ratio would be substantially larger than 2:1 dollar wise.

The problem right now is I am almost unwilling to take any losses, which obviously is not right. Whenever I face a decision to act on a setup, I find myself obsessed by the potential loss instead of the possible gain. This is a very negative thinking pattern and I really need to snap out of it. One way to minimize the fear of possible loss is to cut down the size of the possible loss. This can be done by two measures:
(1) use smaller size, such as 100-200 shares and
(2) act only on the setups that have a very tight stop-loss point AND a good risk/reward ratio (1:3 or better).
Knowing that the possible loss is small and limited, I may then be able to free up my mind and focus only on the technical signals.

Whenever I have a winning position, I fear the profits will evaporate, and such fear drives me to take profit prematurely rather than thinking big and letting the winners run. It has been common that the profits I take are less than 20 or even 10% of actually attainable profits, and this is simply terrible. To solve such problem, once again, I should use smaller size so that I won't worry too much by the possible small loss if I don't take small profits prematurely, and I may also feel less compelling to take the small profits as they might be too small due to the small sizes.

AT this stage, I probably should also consider some concrete protocols to deal with a winning position, such as:
(1) Don't enter a position if the initial profit target (based on the choosen trading size) is less than $100.
(2) Unless there is compelling technical signals, never ever take a profits that is less than $50 (excluding commissions),
(3) when the net profits exceed $200, either lock in partial profits or raise the stop-loss to guarantee at least $100 profits;
(4) when the net profits exceed $300, set up a trailing stop order that allows no more than $100 loss from the set point.

I am committed to overcome the "fear" factor, and I will really push myself in the coming weeks. There is no excuse to let the "fear" factor rule and ruin my trading any longer.

On the market:

It was another victory week for bulls last week. Both DOW and SP500 convincingly broke out their early Nov. high and closed at new highs. It is intriguing that NASDAQ failed to accomplish the same feat -- it challenged the previous high on the opening moments on last Friday, but failed to close above that. In addition, NASDAQ's weekly gain (0.81%) is significantly smaller than SP500 (1.22%). From the weekly charts, all major indices show clear strong up trend, with no signs of tops. On the daily charts, everything is looking bullish, except last Friday's action, where the market started strong, but was sold down for the rest of the day and barely closed in green. The "distribution" was especially clear in NASDAQ.

On next week:

The up trend is strong and clear, the seasonality also favors bulls. Unless NASDAQ falls significantly, I expect market to go up and NASDAQ to make new high. However, be very careful going long as many stocks look tired. On the other hand, don't go short unless both weekly and daily charts show clear bearish signals. On the execution, use all the resolve to act on trading plans and over come the "fear"!!!


Weekly Calls:

1. AAPL: CTT between MA50=84 and 90 use tight stops. Re-evaluate the technicals if it moves out of this trading range.

2. AMZN: L1 on pullback, entry zone 1=39.2 (MA10) -39.6, stop just below 38.9; Entry zone 2= just above 38 use MA50=37.9 as stop. IT=42.2.

3. BIDU: CTT between 110/111 and 123/125 use tight stops. Also consider S3 on top if it approaches key resistance around 119 and 121. MA50=104.5.

4. CEPH: L3 when it breaks or closes above MA10=72.5, stop just below 71.9, IT=73.3.

5. CTRP: L1 on pullback, entry range 60-61.5, stop just below 59.9.

6. DVN: L1 on pullback, entry point 1=around 69.5, stop just below MA50=69.3; entry point 2=around 67.3, stop just below 67.

7. ERTS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 55.1 (MA50=55.1), CS=55.1, IDS=55.55, IT=52.5.

8. ESRX: L3 on bottom, entry point 1= just above 68, stop just below 68; entry point zone 2=66-67.5, stop just below 65.9. MA50=69.4.

9. FFIV: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 73, stop just below 72.8.

10. MSO: L1, entry zone 22.7-23.2, stop just below 22.5.

11. RACK: S1 on top if it spikes towards 32.5/33.6 use very tight stops, MA50=32.2.

12. SNDK: S1 on top, entry zone 43-44, stop just above 44.2. It may break down further if NASDAQ falls.

13. STP: consider L2 if it breaks 33, stop around 32.8, IT=37-38.

14. VRTX: CTT between MA200=35.4 and MA50=40.4 use tight stops. Don't trade the mid range.

15. WMT: S1 on top if it spikes towards 47, stop just above MA200=47.1 or MA50=47.2, IT=45.5.

16. X: CTT between 72.3 and 77/79, bias is on the long side. MA50=70.1

Daily Calls -- Friday Dec. 15, 2006

Both SP500 and DOW moved decisively out of the 1 month trading range and closed at new highs, but NASDAQ failed to do so. I wonder how long such divergence will remain.

1. AAPL: S1 on top, entry zone 89-89.7, stop just above 90. The distribution continues here.

2. BIDU: CTT between 119 and 125, try not to trade the mid range, if it breaks 119, it may well test support around 116.

3. DVN: L1 on bottom, entry zone 71.3-72, stop just below 71.2.

4. ERTS: S1 on top if it spikes towards MA50=55.2, stop just above 55.4.

5. ESRX: L1 on bottom, entry zone 66-67.5, stop just below 66.

6. FMCN: S2 on top if it spikes towards 71, stop just above 71, IT=67.5.

7. NTRI: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 60, stop just below 59.5.

8. RIMM: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 139.7, stop just above 140.

9. STP: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 33, stop just above 33.

10. WLT: L1 on pullback, entry zone 48-49, stop just below 47.4, IT=51, MA200=49.6.

11. X: CTT between 72.3 and 76 use tight stops.

12. ADBE: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 39.4 and 43.5, key levels: 37.2, 39.4 (AH low), 40.05 (day low), 40.81 (close), 42 (AH support), 42.75 (recent high); 43.5 (AH high).

Daily Calls -- Thurs Dec. 14, 2006

All major indices mustered a tight gain on very light volume today after opening higher. Everything is in holding pattern, not sure what factors/events are capable of driving the indices out of their 1 month trading range.

One note: there is some concerted selling in all China stocks, such as TOMO, NCTY, KONG, LTON, SNDA, etc. the drops were rather sizable but the volume was not. Keep an eye on this sector.


1. AAPL: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards key resistance levels around 89.5, 90, 90.5, 91, and 92.33, use tight stop, and be patient.

2. ADBE: will report Q4 in AH, watch key levels: 42.75, 42, 38.3 (MA50), 37.2, 35.3 (MA200).

3. BIDU: CTT when it approaches key levels: 116, 117, 119 (MA10), 123, 125.

4. DVN: CTT when it approaches key levels: 69.2 (MA50), 70.4, 72.

5. ESRX: SW-L2 on bottom, entry zone 66-68, stop just below 66, be patient.

6. FMCN: S1 on top when it spikes towards 69/70/71 use tight stops; also, L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 64/65.5 use tight stops, MA50=63.8

7. LRCX: S2 on top, entry zone 52-53.5, stop just above 54, looks like it is ready to dive.

8. MRVL: L3 on bottom, entry zone 19-19.5 (MA50), CS=19.5, IDS=19.

9. SNDK: S1 on top if it spikes towards 43, stop just above 43.2.

10. SONS: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards key support levels at 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4, use tight stops.

11. VRTX: L2 on bottom entry zone 36.3-37.1, stop just below 36. MA200=35.3.

12. WLT: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 47.4/46.1 (MA50), use tight stops.

13. X: CTT between 73 and 76 use tight stops, don't trade the mid-range.

Daily Calls -- Weds Dec. 13, 2006

The major indices spent the day in the red and the FOMC decision failed to move the market in any convincing way. Bulls and bears are obviously in holding pattern for the past weeks, and I am not sure it that will change this week.

1. AAPL: CTT between 83.4 (MA50) and 87/89.5 use tight stops. Try not to trade mid range. Day trading bias on the short side.

2. BIDU: DT-CTT between 117 and 125, be very careful when trade the mid-range, bias on the long side.

3. CEPH: S1 on top if it spikes towards 72/73 use tight stops, IT=69.

4. DVN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=69.1, stop just below 69.

5. ESRX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 66-67.51, stop just below 66.

6. LRCX: CTT between 50.9 (MA50) and 54 use tight stops.

7. NTRI: speculative L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 64, stop just below 63.6., IT=69.

8. RBAK: L1 on pullback, entry zone 16.75-17.5, stop just below 16.7.

9. RIMM: DT-S1 on top, entry zone 125-127, stop just above 127.3. IT=MA50=121.

10. SNDK: S1 on top if it spikes towards 43, stop just above 43.3.

11. SONS: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 5.4, stop just below 5.4.

12. STP: consider L3 on bottom when it spikes towards 29 and MA50=28.1 use tight stops, MA200=29.5. It is a shame that I once again let it slipped through my hands.

13. VRTX: CTT between 37 and 40 use very tight stops.

14. WLT: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 46 (MA50) or 47.4 use very tight stops.

15. X: CTT between 70.5 and 74.5 use very tight stops.

Daily Calls --Tuesday Dec. 12, 2006

Another up day, but the volume dropped to below average. Will tomorrow PM FOMC decision move the market dramatically one way or the other?

1. AAPL: CTT when it approaches key S/R around 84, 86.3, 87, 89.5, 90, 91. Pay particular attention to 87 and 89.5 as they formed the range for the last 3 days, CTT at these two boundaries might be risky.

2. AKAM: L1 on bottom when it approaches 52 and 52.8 use tight stops, don't chase now.

3. BIDU: CTT between 117 and 125, try not trade the mid-range.

4. CEPH: S1 on top, entry zone 72.3-73, stop just above 73.43. Looks like it is really to nose dive here, but the support zone is very close 69- MA50=71.1,

5. ENER: Speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 41, stop just above 41.1. I cannot put a finger on this stock, it looked like ready to break down in the past few days, and then, today's big gain on no news....

6. ESRX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 66-67.6, stop just below 65.9.

7. FFIV: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 72/74 use tight stops.

8. LRCX: CTT between 50.8 (MA50) and 54.1 use tight stops.

9. NTRI: speculative L2 on bottom, entry zone 64-65.5 (MA50), stop just below 64.

10. RACK: consider CTT between 30.8 (MA200) and around 34.25.

11. RBAK: L1 on pullbacks, entry zone 17-17.5, stop just below 16.9.

12. STP: S1 on top, entry zone 31.5-32.4, stop just above 33, IT=29.4 (MA200). check it against what happended on Aug. 17, sure it looks like to repeat the pattern.

13. VRTX: S1 on top, entry zone 41.8-43, stop just above 43, IT=39.

14. X: L1 on pullback if it spikes towards 74/76, use tight stops.

15. DVN: CTT between 69 (MA50) and 74.5 use tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

Weekly Calls Dec. 11 - 15, 2006

On last week's trading calls and executions:

The W/L ratio of both daily and weekly calls came in just above 2:1. I continued to be trigger-shy when anticipated setups came along, I realize it is because of the "fear" of losing. Fear is on psychological issue that has long plagued my trading, and I think it is time to really force myself to address the issue. Starting next week, I will force myself to act on the setups that come to reality, but I will use small size (100-200 shares) initially so I will breathe easy and focus more on the technicals rather than P/L. I have to say that day after day, week after week, I have missed so many good trades that were perfectly analyzed and predicted that it started to feel not only frustrated but also discouraging. I just have to do something now.

On the market:

All major indices bounced back from previous week of loss. The market becomes increasingly choppy as the trading volume on the light side. Among the major indices, SP500 continues to be the strongest one as it made/closed at new highs (weekly), while both DOW and NASDAQ failed to break the late Nov. high, with the relative weakness especially clear for NASDAQ. On the weekly chart, while all indices show a clear and strong up trend, multiple indicators suggest diminishing upward momentum. The major indices appear weaker on the daily charts, especially NASDAQ which is yet to fully recover from the free-fall on Nov. 27.

On next week:

The market is entering the final three weeks of the year. Both the strong multi-month up trend and the seasonality favor the bulls, which means that dips of strong stocks near key support levels should be bought. On the other hand, the market starts to show some vulnerability here as seen in the latest charts of NASDAQ. Also, some market leaders, notably AAPL, RIMM, ADBE; have not only stalled but started to go down. I think the key is on NASDAQ: as long as NASDAQ can maintain above 2390, the overall strategy should be buy-on-dips and be very careful on any short-the-top set-ups. On the other hand, if NASDAQ can break its high around 2368.5, the party for bulls may get wilder before it is over.

For next week, again DT-CTT between key S/R levels should be remained as primary strategy. Because the market is becoming very choppy, be nimble when taking profits, and try to avoid holding position more than 2-3 days.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT when it approaches key S/R around 84, 86.3, 87, 89.5, 90,91, 92.4; use tight stops. Weekly chart show intact strong up trend, but candle formation and other indicators flash possible top-reversal signals. Daily chart is more bearish. A close below MA50=83.1 will likely change the trend.

2. ADBE: L1 on bottom, entry zone 37.3-37.8, stop just below 37; also consider S2 on top if it spikes towards 40, stop just above 40.2. MA50=38.7.

3. AEOS: S3 on top if it spikes towards 49/49.5, stop just above 50., IT=MA50=45.7.

4. AKAM: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 50/52 use tight stops. The intra-day support is around 53, 52.8 and 53.3.

5. AMZN: L3 on bottom if it spikew towards MA50=37.7 use a very tight stop; also consider S2 on top if it spikes towards 39.75 use 40 as stop. Its weekly chart shows an evening-star formation, possibly signal the reversal of the trend.

6. ANF: S1 on top, entry zone 68.3-70, stop just above MA50=70.5, IT=MA200=64.9.

7. BIDU: L1 when it approaches key S around 111, 115, 116, 118 use tight stops. Its short-term R is around 123.

8. BRCM: CTT between 31.8 (MA200) and 35.2 use very tight stops, don't trade the mid-range.

9. CEPH: CTT between 71.1 (MA50) and 75 use very tight stops.

10. DVN: L1 on bottom, entry zone1=71.5-72.2, stop just below 71.4; entry zone 2=68.8-69.5, stop just below 68.8. IT=74.

11. ENER: S1 on top, entry zone 37.2 (MA200) to 38, stop just above 38, IT=35.

12. ERTS: S1 on top, entry zone 54-55.6 (MA50) or near 57, IT=50. Weekly chart suggests it is on the verge of trend-reversal.

13. ESRX: L1 on bottom, entry zone 68 - 69.5 (MA50), IT=MA200=73.3.

14. FFIV: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 72/74, use tight stops,

15. FMCN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 65.6/67.5/69, use tight stops.

16. LRCX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 51, IDS=50.5, CS=MA50=50.7, IT=54.5

17. MRVL: L2 on bottom, entry zone 19.5-20.1, stop just below MA50=19.4, IT=22.

18. NTRI: tentative S3 on top, entry zone 74-76, stop just above 76.2.

19. QCOM: S1 on top only when it spikes towards 41, stop just above 41.

20. RACK: S1 on top, entry points around 33, 34.25, and 36, use tight stops, IT=MA200=30.7. Its short-term trend is changing as it closes below MA50=32.5.

21. RBAK: L1 on pullbacks, entry zone 17-17.5, stop just below 16.9, IT=19.5,

22. RIMM: S3 on top when it approaches 130.6 and 134.6 use tight stops, IT=MA50=120.8; also consider L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50 or 119, use tight stops. Its weekly chart shows signs of possible trend reversal.

23. SNDK: S1 on top if it spikes towards 45 or 47 use tight stops, looks like it is poised to break recent low at 43.15.

24. SONS: L1 on bottom if it spikes toward 6 or 6.2 use tight stops, IT=6.6.

25. STP: L1 on bottom, entry zone 31-32, stop just below 31, it is poised to break the key resistance around 33. IT=37.

26. TOMO: L1 if it breaks 15.8, IT=17, stop just below 15.5, MA200=15.7, watch for volume, it looks ready to break out!!.

27. WLT: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 51/52 use very tight stops. This stock has shown some class-book movement in the past year, let's see how it goes from here.

28. X: L1 on pullback if it spikes towards 72/74/76 use tight stops.

Daily Calls -- Friday Dec. 8, 2006

The bulls struggled ahead of tomorrow's Nov. employment report, with NASDAQ led the decline.

1. AAPL: CTT between 84 and 89.5/90.5 use tight stops, bias on the short side, it finally broke down. MA50=82.8.

2. ADBE: CTT between 37 and 39 use tight stops, bias on the short side, MA50=38.7.

3. AKAM: L1 on pullback, entry zone 52.1-52.81, stop just below 52. This is a classic break-out, and should be bought on any weakness.

4. AMZN: DT-L2 on bottom, entry zone 36-37, stop just below MA200=35.9.

5. BIDU: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards key support around 116 and 112, IT=122. be nimble when taking profits, use 100-300 share size, stop no more than $1.

6. DVN: L1 on bottom, entry zone 71.5-72.4, stop just below 71.4.

7. ERTS: CTT between MA200=52.8 and 55.55 use tight stops, bias on the short side. NOTE: it dropped as low as 51.8 in AH without any news.

8. ESRX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 68-69.4 (MA50), stop just below 67.5.

9. FFIV: L2 on bottom if it spikes down towards 70.5, stop just below 70.5.

10. RACK: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards MA200=30.7, stop just below it.

11. SONS: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards key support levels at 6.2 and 6.3, use tight stops.

12. VRTX: L3 o bottom if it spikes towards 42.6, stop just below 42.5.

13. X: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 76, stop just below 76.

Daily Calls Thurs Dec. 7, 2006

Bulls had problem to keep the momentum and the market became choppier than ever. I expect it will remain choppy until after the release of Nov. employment report on Friday.

1. AAPL: CTT between 87 and 91.4. Bias on the short side. The heavy distribution continues.

2. ADBE: CTT between 37 and 39.5 use tight stops, bias on the short side, it closed below MA50=38.7 for the first time in 3 months.

3. BIDU: DT-L2 on pullback when it spikes down towards support levels around 119, 120.5, 123, 124.3, 125 use tight stops.

4. BRCM: DT-S2 on top, entry zone 35.9-36.2, stop just above 36.3, IT=31.8.

5. DVN: L1 on pullback, entry zone 71.4-72.3, stop just below 71.4.

6. ERTS: DT-L2 on bottom, entry zone 53-53.5, stop just below MA200=52.8.

7. ESRX: SW-L1 on bottom, entry zone 67.5-69.4, stop just below 67.5.

8. QCOM: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards MA200=39.8, stop just above 40.

9. RACK: DT-CTT between MA50=32.5 and 36 use tight stops.

10. X: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 74, stop just below 74.

Daily Calls -- Weds, Dec. 6, 2006

The rally continues with SP500 making yet another new high, while DOW and especially NASDAQ lagging. I think the trend will drift higher until Friday when the Nov. employment report is out, which is likely to have a big impact on the market.

1. AAPL: CTT between 90-93, try not to trade the mid-range. If it breaks out the 89.5-93.2 range, consider go along the direction of the break out.

2. BIDU: L1 on pullback, entry zone 116-119, stop just below 116.

3. DVN: L1 on pullback, entry zone 72-73, stop just below 71.8.

4. ESRX: L1 on pullback, entry zone MA50=69.4 to 70.3, IDS=68.9, CS=69.4.

5. ERTS: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 53.5, use MA200=52.8 as stop, IT=56.6.

Daily Calls Tuesday Dec. 5, 2006

I kind of expected that the market will bounce back a bit, but I am surprised that SP500 actually made and closed at new high, so it looks like that so called "kiss-and-goodbye" rebound may not be true. The market is become really unpredictable at this stage, probably should be very very selective when open any positions.

1. AAPL: S1 on top, entry zone 91.6-92, stop just above 92.1, IT=MA10=90. It has been under distribution for 4 straight days now. Consider overnight short position if it closes below 89.5 with a bearish candle.

2. AEOS: speculative S1 on top, entry zone 48.8-49.5, stop just above 50, IT=45. I tend to believe that the top is in for most retailers.

3. BIDU: CTT between 108 and 116.5 use tight stops.

4. DVN: L1 on bottom, entry zone 71.4-72.3, stop just below 71.4.

5. ERTS: S2 on top if it spikes towards 57.8, stop just above 58.

6. ESRX: L2 on pullback, entry zone 68.6-69.4, stop just below 68, IT=MA200=73.4.

7. FMCN: CTT between 67.5-71/73 use tight stops, bias on the long side.

8. LRCX: speculative S2 on top if it spikes towards 56, stop just above 57, IT=MA50=50.2.

9.RACK: S2 on top if it spikes towards 36, stop just above 36.2, IT=MA50=32.4.

10. TIBX: watch key resistance around 9.7.

Refer the follow stocks to their weekly calls.

AMZN, ANF, BRCM, TIF

Weekly Calls, Dec. 4-8, 2006

On last week's trading calls and executions:

The daily calls continue to excel as the W/L ratio higher than 8:1. On the other hand, the weekly calls came in sub-par with a 3:4 ratio. My executions have been steadily improving, especially in risk control, self-discipline, and patience. However, I am still having big problem to deal with fears and cannot let my winners run. I need to find a better strategy to balance between the risk and profit.

On the market:

All major indices were down on high volume last week. For the first time in over 4 months, the bullish uptrend was seriously challenged. On the weekly charts, NASDAQ formed an ominous bearish candle, while both DOW and SP500 formed hammer like candles. The technical indicators for all indices show clear top-reversal signs. On the daily charts, bulls' attempt to recover the big loss on the Monday was unsuccessful as the sell off resumed on the Friday.

On next week:

The long over-due technical pullback finally occurred last week. The question now is if this is just a technical pullback or it is the turning point for the 4-month long up trend. Bulls have to take comfort in the fact that major indices recovered significant of loss during the last hour of Friday, which would otherwise have been an outright bearish turning point. The short-term key point is 2390 level for the NASDAQ, if it breaks down this level with a bearish candle, I would expect another leg down to test its MA50 around 2357, and in doing so, it may lead the entire market down. On the other hand, due to the seasonality factor and the factor that the market is split on the economy outlook, I suspect that the market will trade within the 3-week trading range rather than moving decisively out of this range for the last month of the year.

For the next week, DT-CTT at key S/R levels should be the primary strategy, specifically, CTT should be in the direction of primary trend to minimize the risks. In general, swing trades should be avoided in this anticipated choppy market.
1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 89.5 and 93.2, if it breaks to the upside, consider trade along the break-out. On the other hand, if it breaks down to the key support levels around 84.5 and 87, consider L1 on bottom use tight stops.

2. ADBE: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards key support levels at 36.5, 37, and MA50=38.7 use tight stops.

3. ADSK: L1 on bottom if it spikes toward 40, stop just below 39.8. It if breaks down 39.8, consider L1 on bottom use MA50=37.2 as stop reference.

4. AEOS: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 46.75-48, stop just above 48, IT around 43.5. Like other retailers, it seems topped out.

5. AKAM: CTT between 44 and 52, don't trade the mid-range.

6. AMZN: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards key support levels around MA50=37.5 and 38.5 use tight stops, IT around 41.

7. ANF: S1 on top, entry zone 69.8-71, stop just above MA50=71.2, IT=MA200=64.8.

8. BIDU: L1 on bottom if it spikes down towards key support levels at 99. 100, 103, 106, 110, use 100-200 share, stop no more than $1.

9. BRCM: DT-L2 on bottom, entry zone 30.70-31.7, CS=31.5, IDS=30.7, IT=35. Also, consider S2 on top if it spikes towards 35, stop just above 35.2.

10. DVN: DT-L1 on bottom, entry zone 71.4-72.2, stop just below 71.4, SW-L1, entry zone 68 (MA50)-69.5, stop just below 68.

11. ERTS: DT-L2 on bottom, entry zone 53-53.6, IDS=MA200=52.7, CS=53.5, IT=57.5. MA50=55.9.

12. ESRX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 66-67.2, stop just below 65.9, IT=MA200=73.5.

13. FFIV: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 71, stop just below 70.5.

14. FMCN: L1 on bottom, entry zone 64.5-66.1, stop just below 64.5, IT=71.

15. JCG: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 38, stop just below 38, IT=41. SW-L1 on bottom, entry zone 35.2-36.6, stop just below 35.2.

16. LRCX: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards MA50=50.1, stop just below 50, IT=54.

17. MRVL: CTT between MA50=19.1 and MA200=21.2 use tight stops, consider trade along the break-out direction should the range is broken.

18. NTAP: L2 on bottom, entry zone 37.2-37.6 (MA50), stop just below 37, IT=40.

19. SONS: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 6.2, stop just below 6.2. SW-L1, entry zone 5.7-6.01.

20. TIBX: SW-S2 on top, entry zone 9.38-9.5, IDS=9.71, CS=9.5, IT=8.7, MA50=9.

21. TIF: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 39.5-41,5, stop just above 42, it is on the final stage of the year-end run-up. May consider buy puts once it rises above 40.

22. X: DT-CTT between 70 and 76 use tight stops, don't trade the mid-range.