Saturday, November 11, 2006

Weekly Calls, Nov. 13-17, 2006

On last week's trading calls and executions:

The W/L ratio of last week's weekly calls is the second worst (1:2) in since the beginning of Sept., which reflects the fact that I seriously under estimated the bullishness of the market for the past week. The W/L ratio of last week's daily calls, however, fared much better (3:1). There were very few A calls.

My executions were quite good considering the subpar trading calls, I was able to realize my possible flawed bearing bias and followed the technicals only when opening any positions.

On the market:

All major indices registered a solid winning week, with NASDAQ leading with an impressive weekly gain of over 2.5%. On the weekly charts, all major indices closed at new closing high, and except SP500, all made new intra-day high. The weekly candles are also bullish. On the other hand, Stochastic and MACD histogram continue to exhibit clear bearish divergence. The similar technicals are also seen on the daily charts.

On next week:

The charts indicate two simple facts: (1) the major indices are yet to reach the top; (2). the bullish momentum is decelerating. Considering such facts, the overall guidelines for next week's trading are: (1). avoid SW shorts or longs, (2). avoid chasing break-downs or break-outs, (3). open positions close the major S/R with tight stops.

1. AFFX: DT-S2 on top when it approaches 26.85, CS=26.85, IDS=MA200=27.3, IT=25.

2. AKAM: SW-L1 on bottom, entry zone 46-46.5 (MA50), stop just below 45.5. DT-CTT between 47.8 and 52 use tight stops.

3. ANF: DT-S2 on top, entry zone 76-76.8, stop just above 77.

4. BIDU: SW-L2 on bottom, entry zone 91-93, stop just below 91, IT=98.5. may also consider DT-S2 on top, entry zone 98-99, stop just above 99, IT=94.

5. BRCM: SW-L2 on bottom, entry zone 29.5-30.4, stop just below MA50=29.5, IT=33

6. CEPH: SW-L2 on bottom, entry zone 71.2-72.4, CS=71, IDS=69.9. IT=76.

7. CHAP: DT-SW-S2 on top, entry zone 42-43, stop just above 43.2, IT=MA50=38.9.

8. DVN: SW-L1 on bottom, entry zone 67-68, stop just below 67. IT=72.

9. EBAY: SW-S3, possible top formation around 33.3, entry zone 33-33.3, stop just above 33.4, IT=30.

10. ERTS: SW-DT-L2 on bottom, entry zone 57.2-58, CS=57, IDS around 56.5, IT=60.

11. ESRX: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 1=63-63.6, stop just above 64, entry zone 2=66-67.5, stop just above 68.

12. GOOG: DT-S2 on top, entry zone 479-482, stop just above 483, IT=460. It significantly under performed NASDAQ in the past week.

13. LRCX: DT-CTT between 52 and 47.2 (MA50) use tight stops.

14. NVDA: SW-L1 on bottom, entry zone 31-32, stop just below 31, IT=37. MA50=31.1.

15. PEIX: DT-S2 on top, entry zone=18.05-18.3 (MA200), stop just above 18.5, IT=16. this is a play with well defined technicals and good risk/reward ratio.

16. RHAT: SW-S2 on top, entry zone 18.6-19.9 (MA50), stop just above 20, IT=15.8. Looks like the gap may be filled on dwindling volumes.

17. SNDK: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 48-49.2, stop just above 49.5.

18. SONS: CTT between 4.41 and 5.3, don't trade the mid-range for now.

19. UNH: may consider a speculative long from 42.9-43.5, stop just below 42.9.

20. X: DT-CTT between 65 and 68.5/69.5 use tight stop. Go short if it breaks down 65.

Earning Watches:

1. ADI: will report Q3 on Tues Nov. 14 AMC, key levels: around 29.4, around 30.4, 30.9 (MA50), 32.8 (MA200).

2. CRM: will report Q2 on Thur Nov 16 AMC, key levels: 32.9 (MA200), 35-35.6, around MA50=38, 39.5-39.8, 43.65.

3. MRVL: will report Q3 on Thur Nov 16 AMC, key levels: 15.91, around 17.2, MA50=18.3, around 20.1, MA200=21.4.

4. NTAP: will report Q3 on Wed Nov 15, key levels: around 33, MA200=33.6, around 34.7, 35.5, 36.1 (MA50), 39.73.

5. SBUX: will report Q3 on Thur Nov. 16, key levels: 33, 34.3 (MA200), 36.2 (MA50), 38, 39.5.

1 comment:

shortswings said...

Hi man,

Sorry, I didnt have time to write a comment on your weekly calls last weekend. when I looked through your calls this noon, I found that you did excellent calls again. your DT calls on Peix, affx, anf, ebay, were proven maraculouly accurate. I hope you acted on some of those!

Have a good trading day!