Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Daily Calls -- Thursday, Nov. 9, 2006

I once again was a bit surprised at the degree of bullishness in the market, especially given the gap down of this morning, this together with yesterday's market action, clearly suggest that I have under-estimated the strength of ongoing up trend. Is it time to make the amends with the market and just go long? probably not, at least in with swing trades, because I am not crazy about the risk/reward ratio for long trades at this stage of game. However, I need to be very cautious about any short-on-top setups.

1. AAPL: DT-L2 on pullback, entry zone 81.2-81.6, stop just below 81. It looks like ready to make new highs.

2. AKAM: consider DT-S2 on top when it spikes towards 52 with a stop just above 52, IT=48.

3. BOBJ: L2 on pullback, entry zone 37.7-38.2, stop just around 37.5, IT=39. risk/reward not great.

4. BRCM: L2 on pullback, entry zone 31.2-31.7, stop just below 31.

5. CHAP: DT-SW-S1, entry zone 41.7-42.6, stop at 43.2, IT=39.

6. ENER: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 39 in AM, stop just above 39., IT=37.

7. ERTS: DT-CTT between 56.5 and 59 use very tight stops.

8. LRCX: DT-CTT between 48 and 52 use very tight stop.

9. XRTX: L1 on pullback, entry zone around MA200=21.7, stop around 21.25.

10. CSCO: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates and outlook also exceeded expectation, traded mostly between 25.5 and 27.7, with AH resistance around 27.4 and support around 26.9.

11. CTRP: L3 when it approach key support (MA50, MA200). reported Q3 in AH, missed earning estimates, traded lightly between 50 and 53, closed around 50.8. Key levels: 42.4, 43.4, 44.5 (MA200), 46, 48.3 (MA50), 50, 53, 53.75 (close), 56.5 (all time high).

12. PCLN: consider L1 on pullback use 41.5 as stop. Reported Q3 in AH, beat the estimates and raised guidance, traded mostly between 42.8 and 43.6, with AH high around 44.3, and closed around 43.1. Key levels: 40.4 (close), 41.49 (recent 52 wk high), 42.8 (AH support), 43.1 (AH close), 43.6 (AH resistance), 44.3 (AH high). The short interests jumped 67% last month to near 37% of the float!!!

2 comments:

shortswings said...

Hi Man,

Your calls on AKAM,XRTX were amazingly accurate. Its a kind of maracle! I do understand your xrtx call, which is based on yesterdays session. But I dont fully undersatnd your call on AKAM. Why it was 52, rather than 52.93? If you get in at 52, what would be your stop, 53? why your IT was 48 instead of around 45.50? your explanation will be appreciated.


later,

shortswings

flyingwabbit said...

Hey, Man:

First of all, as usual, I did not act on the calls. Secondly, on AKAM call, the reason I chose 52 is because that level was tested on 5 occations therefore is a meaningful S/R level, if I get in just below 52, the stop should be just above 52. 52.93, on the other hand, is only posted on one session, therefore not a very strong S/R level. As for using 48 as the lower boundary of CTT was not a very good call, instead, it should either be around 47.7 or as you suggested, near 45.5. I hope I explained the calls well.

I have done alright so far this week, but I did miss a lot of good opportunities, oh well.

Best luck for tomorrow's trading!

FW