Sunday, August 17, 2008

Weekend notes -- August 17, 2008

Got a few moments at hand so here we go:

Major Indices Assessment

Weekly – more upside possible, but may consolidate first.
** RSI2--clearly overbought for all
** MACD histogram: turned positive for NASDAQ, growing (3rd week) for Russell; poised to turn positive for DOW/SP500.
** Russell on 6 week winning streak with volume spike but backed off from the June high, stochastic near overbought; COT show increasing commercial shorts in Russell.
** VIX MACD histogram just flipped to the negative side.

Daily – rally overstretched but no clear reversal yet.

** Well defined ascending channel for all.
** Extended period of positive momentum for all but stalled
** Overbought for both NASDAQ/Rut, which are also over-stretched and crashing the Bollinger bands
** VIX breaking down
** MA50 and MA200 all with clear bearish slopes.

Weekly Swing Trading Calls

** Calls should be seriously reconsidered when there are major company-specific material events.
** All long calls for the energy/commodity/fertilizer sectors are primarily technical driven at this stage.
** Once again, EZ are set conservatively. Entries above the EZ can be used, but position sizes might need be reduced to manage the risks.

1. ABX: L1, 27-30, IT=35/38

2. ACI: L1, 37-44, IT=55

3. AGU: L1, 65-73, IT=88

4. CLR: L1, 37-42, or when it closes above MA10, IT=55/60.

5. CNX: L1, 50-58, IT=68/72

6. ELN: L1 if it spikes towards 12, IDS<11, CS>12, IT=18.

7. EWZ: L1, 60-66, IT=75

8. FCX: L1, 69-81, IT=90

9. MOS: L1, 82-93, IT=110

10. OIH: L1, 170-173, IT=190

11. POT: L1, 142-160, IT=183/190

12. RIG: L1, 110-121, IT=132

13. SLV: L1, 10.5-11.7, IT=13.7

14. USO: L1, 85-88, IT=95

15. X: L1, 111-121, IT=140/150

16. IWM: quick swing (1-2 wk), S1, from 76-80, IT=72

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