Saturday, November 17, 2007

Weekly Swing Trading Calls -- Nov. 19-23, 2007

On the market -- stalemate, for now!

Bulls were able to significantly slow down the tremendous bears attack and ended week with a slight gain, while bears managed to thwart any serious rebounds.

On the weekly charts, all major indices posted more or less of a spinning top candle formation, indicative of indecision on both parties. Most indicators still favor more down side movement.

On the daily charts, both DOW/SP500 closed below EMA200, while NASDAQ successfully tested and closed above EMA200. The lows on Nov. 12 seem to firming up for all major indices, while downside momentum is diminishing.

On the 30/60 min charts, DIA/SPY/QQQQ all show signs of oversold rebound.

Overall, the bears and bulls are in a temporary stalemate right now. For bears to break through the impasse, relying on the carry-over negative momentum is no longer enough, instead, it will need more significant bad news on the macro-economy level, especially the solid evidences of consumers' faltering spending. For bulls, however, things are a bit easier: as long as there are no significant negative headlines, the favorable seasonability (Turkey rally and Santa Rally) may help them to steadily recover some of the lost ground.

My feeling for the next week is that while it will be a overall range-bound market between the Nov. 12 low and Nov. 14 high, the bias is mildly bullish. Therefore, I will continue the intra-day or very short swing trades from both sides using those key S/R as stop/entry references. Since it will be a non-trending market with high volatility in coming days, taking quick profits is very important.

Weekly Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: short-term rebound on the way!
Weekly: doji candle, still a clear up trend, indicators mostly bullish.
Daily: signs of temporary floor around 160, indicators slightly bearish
30/60 min: solid signs of more over-sold rebound.
** DT/SW L2, entry zone=159-165, IT=175
** DT S3 if it spikes towards 175/180 use tight stops.

2. AKAM: more pullback before rebounding?
Weekly: second losing week on light and diminishing volumes, indicators mildly bullish.
Daily: several successful tests of EMA50, but indicators point to possibly more pullback before rebounding
30/60 min: reluctant oversold rebound, slightly bearish
** DT/SW L2, entry zone=33-34.5, IT=38.

3. BIDU: A falling leader?

Weekly: neutral, second losing week on high volume, noticeably weaker than QQQQ/NASDAQ, repeated bullish calls from analysts could not stop the slide,
Daily: bearish, un-abating negative momentum as every rebound was sold down,
30/60 min: struggling to mount any over-sold rebound, test of Nov. 12 low around 298 is still in the card.
** SW CTT if it spikes towards key S/R levels: 298, 333, 360 use tight stops, don't trade the middle ranges.
** Consider DT/SW S2 if it breaks and closes below 294, IT=270?

4. CRM: Stellar Q report emboldens bull rampage!

Weekly: very bullish all around
Daily: every bullish with extreme bullish candle, there is no way that bulls will be satisfied with anything less than new highs.
30/60 min: bullish and in overbought regions, but if it is indeed trending to new highs, expect overbought to become even more overbought.
** SW L1, entry zone=55-57.1, stop just below 55, IT=65
** DT L1, entry zone=56-57.1, stop just below 56, or when it breaks 57.6, IT=62.

5. DRYS: running into a dry ground?
Weekly: 3rd straight down week on diminishing but still relatively high volumes, indicators favor further down side movement, MACD histogram is poised to become negative for the first time in months.
Daily: persistently high negative momentum kept it near over-sold region,
30/60 min: signs of oversold rebound but lacking strength.
** DT/SW S2 if it spikes toward key resistances around 95, 100, and 105 with tight stops.
** DT/SW L3, entry zone=82-85.11, stop just below 81, IT=92.

6. EXM: trouble water ahead?
Weekly: like DRYS but even weaker as it is on the verge of trend-reversal confirmation, very bearish
Daily: descending candles on persistent negative momentum, is another leg down in a short order?
30/60 min: stuck in oversold with all bearish indicators favor more oversold time.
** DT S1 break-down play if it breaks 43.5, stop just above 44, IT=40.
** SW S2, entry zone=48-52, stop just above 53, IT=44.

7. FSLR: indeed the first of solar!

Weekly: increasing bullish momentum, uptrend to continue
Daily: Friday's action conclude the pullback.
30/60 min: rebound in full swing, overbought conditions does not mean imminent pullback if it is trending up.
** DT L2, entry zone 200-205, IT=230, stop just below 200,
** SW L1, entry zone 185-201, IT=250, stop just below 185.

8. GRMN: have the fundamentals changed for better now?
Weekly: overall still mildly bearish, but will the bullish engulfing candle embolden the bulls?
Daily: diminishing negative momentum, sellers still abundant near key resistances.
30/60 min: poised for overbought pullback.
** CTT at key S/R: around 93.5, 102 and 109, don't trade the mid-region.

9. RIMM: from studs to suds?

Weekly: second weekly loss on increasing volume, indicators favor more down side move, but long shadows on the candle may define the short-term trading range.
Daily: Friday's high volume reversal may have lay down a short-term bottom, but un-abating negative momentum may cap any significant rebound.
30/60 min: over-sold rebound is running its course
** SW/DT S2 if it spikes towards 118, stop just above 120, IT=105

10. TBSI: the reverse of a fortune?

Weekly: 4th straight weekly loss with acceleration to the down side, extreme Marubozu candle along with other indicators point to further loss.
Daily: oversold becomes more oversold as it clearly trends down
30/60 min: clearly down-trend suppressed any over-sold rebound.
** DT/SW S1 if it spikes towards key resistance around 47, 52 and 58.
** DT/SW speculative L3 if it spikes down towards 35, with stop just below 34.5, IT=45.

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