Saturday, September 29, 2007

Swing Trade Calls -- Sept. 29, 2007

Have not posted for a month and what a month it has been!!

On the major indices

All major indices are only a stone-throw away from their previous highs. While they all looked somewhat tired/overbought on the daily charts, the weekly charts suggest that a new round of bull run is about to kick in. My feeling is that the market may test the highs early next week, however, I suspect that the first test might trigger a pullback, which will form the basis for a sustainable run at the new highs, possibly riding on the Q3 reports. I realize that I am sounding a lot more bullish than I have been, and that deep inside I have substantial doubts about the macro-economy outlook. What I am trying to do is to focus on the charts and let the charts dictate my thoughts and strategy.

Speaking of strategy, for all the swing trade in the coming weeks, the best will be buy-dips for those whose weekly charts show clear up trend. Shorting may still be considered but it must apply to those whose weekly charts show down trend, in addition, try to be nimble when booking profits.

1. AAPL: L1 on pullback, entry zone1=136-139, stop just below 136; entry zone2=145-146, stop just below 145.

2. AFFX: S1 on top if it spikes towards 26, stop just above 26.1, IT=24.

3. ANF: S1 on top, entry zone=83-85, stop just above 85, IT=78.

4. BIDU: speculative CTT between 270 and 300, 20-50 shares, $5-10 stop.

5. COH, S2, entry zone1=49.5-51, stop just above 51, IT=48; entry zone2=when it breaks 46, IT=43.

6. CROX: L2, entry zone=59-61, stop just below 59; speculative S3 might be considered if it spikes towards 70, IT=61.

7. CTRP: L1 if it spikes toward 49, stop just below 48, IT=53.

8. ILMN: L1, entry zone=48-49.2, stop just below 48, IT=53.

9. JCG: S2 on top, entry zone=44-46, stop just above EMA50, IT=40.

10. MRVL: CTT between 15.25 and 18 use very tight stops.

11. NUE: S3 on top if it spikes towards 61, stop just above 61, IT=56.

12. PFCB: CTT between 28 (all time low) and EMA50=33.4, prefer on the short side.

13. SINA: L1 if it spikes towards EMA50=43.7 now, IT=50,

14. SNDA: L1 if it spikes towards 33.5, stop just below 33, IT=37.

15. SNDK: S2 on top, entry zone=56-58, stop just above 58.5, IT=50

16. SOHU: L2 if it spikes towards 35, stop just below, IT=38

17. SONS: S1, entry zone1=6.3-6.5, stop just above; entry zone2=6.7-7, stop just above, IT=6.

18. UA: S3, entry zone=61-65, stop just above 65, IT=55

19. X: S3 if it spikes towards 109, stop just above, IT=98.

20. JRJC: speculative S3, entry zone=34-37, stop above 40, IT=23, CHINA craze is in full swing....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

hi man,

I just looked through all your calls. They are excellent. However, on your call on X, if your stop get hit, are you going to go long right the way ?(a reverse order). To me, it looks like the stock is in the resistance zone now. if it breaks out, go-long seems make sense.

As for broad market, in my view, it is in overbought situation now and a pull back to its EMA10 is likely to happen in the next week(though it might test the previous high or even breaks it before the pull back happens). Therefore, it is logical to do some short-on-top stuffs and be able to take profit as quickly as you can, since the long term trend of the broad market is in uptrend (specially true if the indexes can test or break the previous high and then pull back).

Good luck in your next week's trading!