Saturday, March 03, 2007

Weekly Trading Calls -- March 5-9, 2007

Based on my assessment of the current conditions, I will refrain from trading on the long side, especially SW longs. I will also actively seek for the short-on-top setups. DT-long may still be considered as long as there are strong support (and stop-loss) nearby.

1. AAPL: CTT between 83 and 90, short-term bias is neutral, don't trade the mid range.

2. ADBE: consider DT-L3 on bottom if it approaches key support around EMA200=37.2, but be ready to switch the side if it closes below 37 with a bearish candle.

3. ADI: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 34, with a stop just below 33.8.

4. AKAM: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=45.6 use a tight stop; SW-S1 on top, entry zone 51-54, stop just above 54. EMA=53.9.

5. ANF: CTT between EMA200=70.1 and 79.5 use very tight stops, bias is on the short side, EMA50=77.6, don't trade the mid range.

6. BIDU: S3 on top, entry zone 107.5-113, stop just above EMA50=113.3, IT around EMA200=98.5.

7. BOBJ: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 36-37, stop just above 37, IT=33.5. EMA200=35.1, EMA50=37.7.

8. CRM: DT-CTT between 38(EMA200)/41 and 44.6 use very tight stop,

9. DVN: DT-L3 if it spikes towards 61/63 use tight stops, S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=67.4 use a tight stop.

10. ENER: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=33, with a stop just above, IT=27.

11. ESRX: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 70 with a stop just below. First test of key support around 72.7 (both EMA50 and 200) was successful, but I doubt that will last.

12. FFIV: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=64.9, with a stop just below 64.

13. FMCN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 66.5/71 use tight stop, EMA200=65, IT=79.

14. GOOG: SW-S1 on top, entry zone=455-470, use EMA50=470.5 as stop reference. Not sure the key support around 428 can hold.

15. MRVL: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 18 with a stop just below.

16. NTAP: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=36.4, CS
17. NTES: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 19 use EMA200=18.7 as stop reference, IT=21.2.

18. NUE: CTT between EMA200=55 and 61.7 use very tight stops, bias on the short side.

19. OCR: speculative L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 38 with a stop just below, IT=42.

20. QCOM: L2 on bottom if it, entry zone 37-38, stop just below 37. currently sitting near EMA200=39.5, EMA50=39.3.

21. SINA: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=29, with a stop just below.

22. SONS: DT-CTT between 7 and 7.7 use tight stops, EMA50=7.2, don't trade the mid range.

23. STP: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=32.2 with a stop just below 31.5.

24. X: DT-L1 if it spike towards 83 use EMA50=81.9 as stop reference.

25. YHOO: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=29.2 use EMA200=28.9 as stop reference.

I will also keep an eye on some subprime mortgage lenders, such as NFI, AHM, CFC, NEW, most of them have lost 70% or more in the past 2 months, and as more bad news hit, they could be for a panic driven drop in the coming days, the question is, are they worth the risk of being killed by the falling knives??

2 comments:

flyingwabbit said...

it is kind of ironic that I just realized that though I am fairly bearish about the upcoming trend of the market, a majority of my calls are actually on the long side, which reflects the stubborn buy-on-dip mentality left from the multi-month bull run, and I think that is just another sign that decline is far from over...

Eric B said...

In an Operations Update last week, AHM released its pipeline data showing only 5% of its loans having credit scores less than 620.

In addition to being oversold, AHM has amazing fundamentals.

-4 P/E Ratio
-Operating Margin: 46%
-20% insider ownership
-$400 million in cash (40% of market cap)
-Return on Equity: 22%
-2006 EPS: 4.96/share

And most important of all, because AHM is a REIT, it must payout a certain percentage of its income in the form of dividends. During this 50% fall in share price, AHM has seen its dividend payout rise to 19%! If you’re afraid this dividend will be cut, consider that AHM has been steadily increasing its payout every quarter and has over $400 million in cash.