Based on my assessment of the current conditions, I will refrain from trading on the long side, especially SW longs. I will also actively seek for the short-on-top setups. DT-long may still be considered as long as there are strong support (and stop-loss) nearby.
1. AAPL: CTT between 83 and 90, short-term bias is neutral, don't trade the mid range.
2. ADBE: consider DT-L3 on bottom if it approaches key support around EMA200=37.2, but be ready to switch the side if it closes below 37 with a bearish candle.
3. ADI: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 34, with a stop just below 33.8.
4. AKAM: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=45.6 use a tight stop; SW-S1 on top, entry zone 51-54, stop just above 54. EMA=53.9.
5. ANF: CTT between EMA200=70.1 and 79.5 use very tight stops, bias is on the short side, EMA50=77.6, don't trade the mid range.
6. BIDU: S3 on top, entry zone 107.5-113, stop just above EMA50=113.3, IT around EMA200=98.5.
7. BOBJ: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 36-37, stop just above 37, IT=33.5. EMA200=35.1, EMA50=37.7.
8. CRM: DT-CTT between 38(EMA200)/41 and 44.6 use very tight stop,
9. DVN: DT-L3 if it spikes towards 61/63 use tight stops, S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=67.4 use a tight stop.
10. ENER: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=33, with a stop just above, IT=27.
11. ESRX: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 70 with a stop just below. First test of key support around 72.7 (both EMA50 and 200) was successful, but I doubt that will last.
12. FFIV: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=64.9, with a stop just below 64.
13. FMCN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 66.5/71 use tight stop, EMA200=65, IT=79.
14. GOOG: SW-S1 on top, entry zone=455-470, use EMA50=470.5 as stop reference. Not sure the key support around 428 can hold.
15. MRVL: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 18 with a stop just below.
16. NTAP: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=36.4, CS
17. NTES: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 19 use EMA200=18.7 as stop reference, IT=21.2.
18. NUE: CTT between EMA200=55 and 61.7 use very tight stops, bias on the short side.
19. OCR: speculative L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 38 with a stop just below, IT=42.
20. QCOM: L2 on bottom if it, entry zone 37-38, stop just below 37. currently sitting near EMA200=39.5, EMA50=39.3.
21. SINA: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=29, with a stop just below.
22. SONS: DT-CTT between 7 and 7.7 use tight stops, EMA50=7.2, don't trade the mid range.
23. STP: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=32.2 with a stop just below 31.5.
24. X: DT-L1 if it spike towards 83 use EMA50=81.9 as stop reference.
25. YHOO: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=29.2 use EMA200=28.9 as stop reference.
I will also keep an eye on some subprime mortgage lenders, such as NFI, AHM, CFC, NEW, most of them have lost 70% or more in the past 2 months, and as more bad news hit, they could be for a panic driven drop in the coming days, the question is, are they worth the risk of being killed by the falling knives??
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Weekly Trading Calls -- March 5-9, 2007
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2 comments:
it is kind of ironic that I just realized that though I am fairly bearish about the upcoming trend of the market, a majority of my calls are actually on the long side, which reflects the stubborn buy-on-dip mentality left from the multi-month bull run, and I think that is just another sign that decline is far from over...
In an Operations Update last week, AHM released its pipeline data showing only 5% of its loans having credit scores less than 620.
In addition to being oversold, AHM has amazing fundamentals.
-4 P/E Ratio
-Operating Margin: 46%
-20% insider ownership
-$400 million in cash (40% of market cap)
-Return on Equity: 22%
-2006 EPS: 4.96/share
And most important of all, because AHM is a REIT, it must payout a certain percentage of its income in the form of dividends. During this 50% fall in share price, AHM has seen its dividend payout rise to 19%! If you’re afraid this dividend will be cut, consider that AHM has been steadily increasing its payout every quarter and has over $400 million in cash.
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