Daily Calls -- Friday, March 16, 2007

The overall volumes dropped significantly today as both bears and bulls slowed down to catch up their breath and position for tomorrow's quadruple option expiration day. Unlike others, I doubt tomorrow will be a very wild trading session, except for the first 30 min or so. I think bulls and bears are entering a "draw" stage and neither party is going to back down much. The material news that could change the deadlock won't come till next week at the earliest. It is probably a good time to take a little break.

1. AAPL: if the volume is light like today, CTT between 88/89 and 90.4 use tight stops.

2. ICE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 133/136 use tight stops, EMA50=134.8.

3. ARO: reported Q1 in AH, traded mostly between 38.8 and 39.74. Key S/R: EMA50=36.1, 37, 38.69 (day close), 39.35 (recently made 52-wk high).

4. SONS: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 7.8 with a stop just above.

Daily Calls -- Thur March 15, 2007

For a moment, the market looked like a playground for the bears, where bulls were running for their lives, but then the bulls turned back and chased the surprised bears all the way up till the close. Even though the major indices made intra-day lows that was below the previous lows, bulls' ferocious comeback marked the test a smashing success. As the result, I expect that the major indices will be range bound between their EMA200 and EMA50. Bulls will have a bit more time to make their case, but I doubt bears have enough patience to sit tight and listen up.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 88/89 and 93 use tight stops. bias on the long side.

2. BIDU: S1 on top if it spikes towards 102, with a stop just above 103, EMA50=98.2

3. BOBJ: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=36.8 with a stop just above 37, IT=EMA200=35.1.

4. CHAP: Speculative S3 on top with a stop just above 52.5, IT=EMA50=48.7.

5. ICE: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=135/138 use very tight stops.

6. MU: bull divergences continue to develop, either L2 or buy calls.

7. TIF: it is topping out, may consider buying puts here.

8. URBN: it is topping out, may consider buying puts here.

Daily Calls -- Weds March 16, 2007

Well, turns out that bears found the catalyst first and bulls were looking for their broken teeth everywhere. Tomorrow will be crucial for both bears and bulls as the major indices are poised to test the recent low. A close below those lows could triger even bigger sell-off in the days to follow, a successful test of those lows, on the other hand, will definitely buy bulls some time to regroup.

1. AAPL: DT-L2 on bottom with a stop just below 87.4, IT-90.

2. ICE: Either S1 on top use EMA50=135.2 as stop reference or when it breaks 127, IT=123.

3. SNDK: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 39 with a stop just below 38.8, IT=42.

4. SONS: DT-CTT between 6.8 and 7.3 use tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

5. Most of the stocks on my list are the candidates for the short-on-top setups if they spikes towards the high ends of today's ranges.

Daily Calls -- March 13, Tue, 2007

The market continues rebound on declining volume. Bulls should be happy since no one is really motivated to sell, bears can take comfort on the very light volume. Looks like everyone is waiting for some kind of catalyst or signs, conviction is probably in short supply on the Wall Street right now.

1. AAPL: CTT between 89/89.4 and 93, don't trade the mid-range.

2. AKAM: speculative S2 on top, entry zone 53 (EMA50)-54.5, stop just above 54.6. Be a bit patient, better wait for intra-day reversal signal near the key R levels before opening any position.

3. SONS: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 7.8 with a stop just above.

4. COH, ICE: refer to the weekly calls.

Weekly Trading Calls -- March 12-16, 2007

First, this is my last post of the weekly trading calls for a while. I will be relocating to LA and starting a new position in April, and I don't think I will be able to trade at least for the first several months. I have a lot of thoughts as I am winding my trading activities next week, which all started in 2001, and if I get time in the coming days, I will share some of those with you. I expect to continue posting the daily calls for the coming week.

My overall trading strategy for this stage is on the short side, especially the SW-short-on-top setups, I would avoid any SW-long trades, but I may take some DT-long trades when the market rebounds.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 83/EMA50=86.4 and 89 use very tight stops, bias neutral. Don't trade the mid-range.

2. ADSK: DT-CTT between 37 and 40 use tight stops, bias is on the short side, EMA50=41.1, EMA200=39.

3. AKAM: DT-CTT between EMA200=45.8 and 52/EMA50=53, bias on the short side, don't trade the mid range.

4. BOBJ: SW-S1 on top if it spikes towards 36-EMA50=37.1, IDS>37.5, DS=37, IT=33.66.

5. COH: speculative S2 on top, entry zone=50-51, stop just above 51, IT=EMA50=46.5.

7. DVN: speculative S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=66.9 with a stop just above 67, OR when it closes below 63 with a bearish candle.

8. ENER: S2 on top if it spikes towards 35 use EMA200=35.4 as stop references. EMA50=32.7.

9. FMCN: CTT between 71 and 79 use very tight stops, EMA50=76.9, EMA200=65.5.

10. ICE: SW-S2 (100 share) on top if it spikes towards 138 with a stop just above, IT=123.

11. NUE: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 66, stop just above 67, IT=60.

12. SONS: S2 on top, entry zone 7.28-7.48, stop just above 7.6, IT=6.8.

13. STP: SW-S2 on top, entry zone 39.5-40.5, stop just above 41, It=33.

14. URBN: speculative S2 on top if it spikes toward 26.6 with stop just above 26.7, IT=24.

15. X: speculative SW-S2 on top if it spikes 94 with a stop just above 95, IT=86.

Weekend notes -- March 10 ,2007

Last Friday's market reaction to seemingly bullish Feb employment report was anything but bullish, it was pretty much a gap-then-crap for major indices and a lot stocks, even though the market mounted a late session rebound to close nearly flat, the tape just did not look good for the bulls.

On the weekly charts, despite of the fact that all major indices had some respectable gains for the week, they just look pale in comparison to the huge drop in the prior week. Technical indicators are overall on the bearish side.

On the daily charts, while all major indices made a successful test of EMA200, their attempt to test the overheaded EMA50 clearly fall short. Technical indicators are mixed.

Next week or two will be crucial: the longer the rebound stalls below EMA50, the higher the likelihood that the market will have another leg down. Personally, I don't expect the bulls to give it up right away, and it is entirely possible that a test of EMA50 may come up, but at this stage, I doubt that the bulls will be able to hold the market above EMA50, and I firmly believe that the top is in for the major indices and that the overall down trend will persist for the next 2-4 months if not longer.

weekly calls will be posted later....

Daily Calls -- March 9, Friday, 2007

A sudden sell-off around 2:30 pm almost derailed bulls' rebound, but they mustered enough strength to stay in the green. NASDAQ failed to close above the key resistance around 2390, while SP500 managed to close above the key 1400 support. The low volume rebound will be tested tomorrow when the Feb employment report releases BMO, and we will see how much life still left for the bulls.

1. AKAM: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=53.1/54.4 use very tight stops.

2. ENER: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 34.75, stop just above 35, EMA50=32.7, EMA200=35.4.

3. FFIV: S1 on top if it spikes towards 73, use EMA50=73.2 as stop references.

4. FNM: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=57.3 use a tight stop.

5. ICE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 136, stop just above 137. EMA=135.6; also consider S1 if it breaks down 128.5, IT=123.

6. LRCX: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA200=46.3/EMA50=46.7, stop just above 47.

7. MA: S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50/106 use tight stops, IT=99.

8. MRVL: speculative DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 18, stop just below 17.8.

9. NVDA: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=32.6 use a tight stop.

10. SNDK: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=41/42 use tight stops.

11. URBN: DT-CTT between today's high=26.65 and low=24 use tight stops, bias on short side.

Daily Calls -- March 8, Thursday, 2007

Bulls tried hard to keep the rebound going, but after failing to break the key resistances (1400 for SP500 and 2390 for NASDAQ), major indices slided back to the red in the end. It has mostly a boring session as many stocks set the day range early in the session, and I suspect that will continue until after Friday's Feb employment report.

1. AEOS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 31, use EMA50=31.4 as stop references. Its first test of EMA200=28.3 was successful, but its long up trend is clearly reversed.

2. CEPH: S1 on top if it spikes towards 68, stop just above 68.5, EMA200=67.7.

3. DVN: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 64.5 with a stop just below 64, IT=EMA50=67.1

4. NTAP: closed just above the key EMA200=36.4 today, next support is around 35.5...

5. SONS: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA=7.1, with stop just above 7.2.

Daily Calls -- Weds March 7, 2007

Bulls had a good bounce today, which came in lower volume. The short-term oversold bounce may continue another day or two, or even three if this Friday's Feb employment report favors the bulls, in which case, we may see a lot of stocks testing their EMA50, but I suspect that would be a good-bye kiss before the market resumes the downward motion. If you did not get in today, you might have missed the major part of the rebound. For me, I will focus on the short-on-top setups in the coming days.

1. AEOS: Wait for its Q1 report in AH. Consider S1 on top if it spikes towards 31 use EMA50=31.5 as stop reference, IT=EMA200=28.3

2. BIDU: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards 108 with a stop just above.

3. FMCN: speculative S2 on top if it spikes towards 79 with a stop just above, EMA50=77.

4. GOOG: S1 on top, entry zone=464-468, stop just above 470, IT=440.

5. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 61.8/63 use tight stops, IT=58.

6.NVDA: S1 on top if it spikes towards 32.5 use EMA50=32.8 as stop reference.

7. SONS: S1 on top, entry zone 7.06-7.29, CS=EMA50=7.2, IDS just above 7.3.

Daily Calls -- Tuesday March 6, 2007

The bulls put up another fight as the old "buy-on-dip" habitat dies hard, and for a brief period during the session, it seemed that as it they were ready to derail the bears march, but they were out of breath and out of numbered, and they had to settle for another failed counter-attack. It is kind of ironic that bulls are no doubt turning less bullish, some early bears (including me, Lauriston, etc) are itching for buy-at-bottom-for-quick-rebound, which actually is very risky. If you want play such game for a quick profit, make sure you have a very close legit stop-loss point, and you won't get greedy when in green.

1. AAPL: follow the weekly call, CTT between 83 and 90, don't trade the mid-range.

2. ADI: DT-L1 on bottom, entry zone 33.7-34.1, stop just below 33.7.

3. ANF: CTT between 70 and 79 with tight stops, bias on short side.

4. BIDU: CTT between the support zone from 90-94 and 103 use tight stops., EMA200=98.4 will be tested.

5. CRM: consider DT-L3 on bottom when it spikes towards key support around 38, 39, 40 and 41 (strong).

6. CTRP: consider L3 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=54.2 with stop just below 54., IT=57.

7. DVN: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 61 with a stop just below.

8. MRVL: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 18 with a stop just below.

9. NTAP: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=36.4.

10. NVDA: S1 on top if it spikes towards 30, use EMA200=30.2 as stop references.

11. SONS: CTT between 6.4 and 7 use very tight stops, bias on the short side.

Weekly Trading Calls -- March 5-9, 2007

Based on my assessment of the current conditions, I will refrain from trading on the long side, especially SW longs. I will also actively seek for the short-on-top setups. DT-long may still be considered as long as there are strong support (and stop-loss) nearby.

1. AAPL: CTT between 83 and 90, short-term bias is neutral, don't trade the mid range.

2. ADBE: consider DT-L3 on bottom if it approaches key support around EMA200=37.2, but be ready to switch the side if it closes below 37 with a bearish candle.

3. ADI: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 34, with a stop just below 33.8.

4. AKAM: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=45.6 use a tight stop; SW-S1 on top, entry zone 51-54, stop just above 54. EMA=53.9.

5. ANF: CTT between EMA200=70.1 and 79.5 use very tight stops, bias is on the short side, EMA50=77.6, don't trade the mid range.

6. BIDU: S3 on top, entry zone 107.5-113, stop just above EMA50=113.3, IT around EMA200=98.5.

7. BOBJ: SW-S1 on top, entry zone 36-37, stop just above 37, IT=33.5. EMA200=35.1, EMA50=37.7.

8. CRM: DT-CTT between 38(EMA200)/41 and 44.6 use very tight stop,

9. DVN: DT-L3 if it spikes towards 61/63 use tight stops, S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=67.4 use a tight stop.

10. ENER: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=33, with a stop just above, IT=27.

11. ESRX: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 70 with a stop just below. First test of key support around 72.7 (both EMA50 and 200) was successful, but I doubt that will last.

12. FFIV: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=64.9, with a stop just below 64.

13. FMCN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 66.5/71 use tight stop, EMA200=65, IT=79.

14. GOOG: SW-S1 on top, entry zone=455-470, use EMA50=470.5 as stop reference. Not sure the key support around 428 can hold.

15. MRVL: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 18 with a stop just below.

16. NTAP: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=36.4, CS
17. NTES: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 19 use EMA200=18.7 as stop reference, IT=21.2.

18. NUE: CTT between EMA200=55 and 61.7 use very tight stops, bias on the short side.

19. OCR: speculative L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 38 with a stop just below, IT=42.

20. QCOM: L2 on bottom if it, entry zone 37-38, stop just below 37. currently sitting near EMA200=39.5, EMA50=39.3.

21. SINA: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=29, with a stop just below.

22. SONS: DT-CTT between 7 and 7.7 use tight stops, EMA50=7.2, don't trade the mid range.

23. STP: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA200=32.2 with a stop just below 31.5.

24. X: DT-L1 if it spike towards 83 use EMA50=81.9 as stop reference.

25. YHOO: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=29.2 use EMA200=28.9 as stop reference.

I will also keep an eye on some subprime mortgage lenders, such as NFI, AHM, CFC, NEW, most of them have lost 70% or more in the past 2 months, and as more bad news hit, they could be for a panic driven drop in the coming days, the question is, are they worth the risk of being killed by the falling knives??

Weekend notes on the market -- March 3 ,2007

Bulls tried to come back from the steep loss at the opening just like they did on the previous sessions, but this time, the bears took off the gloves and smacked the bulls down hard to end a horrendous week for the bulls.

The action on the Friday signals a very important change of the collective psychological status of the market: for the first time, the bears had the confidence and strength to overpower bulls' buy-on-dip mentality that worked since last August. Such change is likely to setup the psychological basis for the next stage, and trigger the bearish cycle:

** Stage 1 -- bulls continue their buy-on-dip routine in the face of first wave of big declines, bears become more self-assured as bulls efforts start to fall shorter and shorter.
** Stage 2 -- as bears gaining more strength and confidence, bulls start to second guess their decision, and hold back on they buy-on-dip.
** Stage 3 -- bears establish clear dominance, and weak bulls start to liquidate their positions.
** Stage 4 -- bears roaring around, even strong bulls start to sell their positions
** Stage 5 -- bears become over-confident, some bulls start to become bears, end is near for the bears.

We are currently near the end of the stage 1.

On the weekly charts, every technical indicators for all major indices were so bearish, I am going to say this for the first time in months: the multi-month uptrend has ended, the stage for a multi-week 10% correction at least is set. It is too early to say that the bear cycle has started. Use NASDAQ as an example, what happened this week is very similar to those happened during the week of May 12, 2006, Jan 7, 2005 and Dec. 20, 2004. In all those 3 occations, the dramatic weekly decline led to multi-month down trend resulting a correction of 10 to 20%. Daily charts are not any better as all major indices decisively dropped below EMA50 and on the way to test EMA200.

Are bulls totally done? Most likely not, in fact, I expect bulls to mount another major comeback, and may even be able to test EMA50, but that would be the last kiss-and-goodbye of a fleeting era.

weekly calls will be posted later....

Daily Calls March 2, Friday, 2007

I would be hard-pressed to say that today is a follow-through day for the bears. Bears are piling up, but bulls showed that they are far from done. However, the burdens are now on the bulls to prove that they still have enough left to take the market higher, and the time is not on their side.

1. AAPL: L2 on pullback use EMA50=86.2 as stop reference.

2. ESRX: L2 on the bottom if it spikes towards the key support level around 72.7 (EMA200 and EMA50), IT=78.

3. BOBJ: SW-S1 on top, entry zone=35.75-37.8(EMA50), stop just above 38. Be patient as it might rebound more.

4. SONS: DT-CTT bewtween 7/EMA50=7.2 and 7.6/7.8.

5. PETM: DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 29, stop just below 28.5, EMA200=28.7, IT=EMA50=30.7.

6. DELL: reported Q4 in AH, traded between 22.5 and 23.9 but mostly between 22.5 and 22.8. Key S/R: 20.5, 21, 22, 22.5 (AH low), 23.42 (today's high), 23.9 (AH high), EMA50=24.4, EMA200=25.2.

7. OVTI: reported Q4 in AH, traded between between 12.1 and 13.55, but mostly between 12.2 and 12.6. Key S/R: 11 (recent 1 yr low), 12-12.25, 13.1 (EMA50), 13.5, 14.