Swing Trade Calls -- Sept. 29, 2007

Have not posted for a month and what a month it has been!!

On the major indices

All major indices are only a stone-throw away from their previous highs. While they all looked somewhat tired/overbought on the daily charts, the weekly charts suggest that a new round of bull run is about to kick in. My feeling is that the market may test the highs early next week, however, I suspect that the first test might trigger a pullback, which will form the basis for a sustainable run at the new highs, possibly riding on the Q3 reports. I realize that I am sounding a lot more bullish than I have been, and that deep inside I have substantial doubts about the macro-economy outlook. What I am trying to do is to focus on the charts and let the charts dictate my thoughts and strategy.

Speaking of strategy, for all the swing trade in the coming weeks, the best will be buy-dips for those whose weekly charts show clear up trend. Shorting may still be considered but it must apply to those whose weekly charts show down trend, in addition, try to be nimble when booking profits.

1. AAPL: L1 on pullback, entry zone1=136-139, stop just below 136; entry zone2=145-146, stop just below 145.

2. AFFX: S1 on top if it spikes towards 26, stop just above 26.1, IT=24.

3. ANF: S1 on top, entry zone=83-85, stop just above 85, IT=78.

4. BIDU: speculative CTT between 270 and 300, 20-50 shares, $5-10 stop.

5. COH, S2, entry zone1=49.5-51, stop just above 51, IT=48; entry zone2=when it breaks 46, IT=43.

6. CROX: L2, entry zone=59-61, stop just below 59; speculative S3 might be considered if it spikes towards 70, IT=61.

7. CTRP: L1 if it spikes toward 49, stop just below 48, IT=53.

8. ILMN: L1, entry zone=48-49.2, stop just below 48, IT=53.

9. JCG: S2 on top, entry zone=44-46, stop just above EMA50, IT=40.

10. MRVL: CTT between 15.25 and 18 use very tight stops.

11. NUE: S3 on top if it spikes towards 61, stop just above 61, IT=56.

12. PFCB: CTT between 28 (all time low) and EMA50=33.4, prefer on the short side.

13. SINA: L1 if it spikes towards EMA50=43.7 now, IT=50,

14. SNDA: L1 if it spikes towards 33.5, stop just below 33, IT=37.

15. SNDK: S2 on top, entry zone=56-58, stop just above 58.5, IT=50

16. SOHU: L2 if it spikes towards 35, stop just below, IT=38

17. SONS: S1, entry zone1=6.3-6.5, stop just above; entry zone2=6.7-7, stop just above, IT=6.

18. UA: S3, entry zone=61-65, stop just above 65, IT=55

19. X: S3 if it spikes towards 109, stop just above, IT=98.

20. JRJC: speculative S3, entry zone=34-37, stop above 40, IT=23, CHINA craze is in full swing....

Swing Calls-- Aug. 25, 2007

Have not posted for 4 weeks because I have been phasing out the daily trading activities. However, I did make several trades in this period with a net profit around $1800. What four week we have had, speaking of the roller-coast ride! The only bid mistake I made during this 4-week stretch was on the Aug. 16 capitulation day, I actually fully anticipated the action, but I was too conservative nipping from the long side because I was hoping for a larger intra-day decline. Oh well…

On the market:

A string of low-volume rebound days brought an up week for the market. On the weekly charts, all major indices posted a nice bullish engulfing candle following a near-hammer candle, with diminishing downward momentum. On the daily charts, all major indices have moved up steadily during the week and closed around or just above the EMA50 levels. Most of indicators point out further gains in the coming days, and it is likely that the major indices will attempt to test the rebound highs on Aug. 8, or the following key resistance zones:

NASDAQ: 2630-2640
SP500: 1490-1504.
DOW: 13700—13780.

The fact that the market has been moving up on significantly low volume clearly suggest the lack of institutional buying and the lingering of fear, if such pattern persists in the next week, I would expect the major indices fail their first test of the aforementioned key resistance zone.

On the overall trading strategies for the coming weeks:

Let me make one thing clear: the multi-month uptrend for the market has been challenged and so far remains intact, which implies that it remains a possibility that the market may test or even set new highs. However, given the fact that the mortgage problem is actually still in the early stage, I suspect that the market will test their lows on Aug. 16 before testing the highs, and that it is a real possibility the market is yet to find the true bottom.

With those thoughts in mind, I think the most sound swing-trade strategy for the coming days is to short the ongoing rebound when the market approaches the resistance zones, the key here is to be patient about the setup, entering only when the daily charts show clear signs of overbought diminishing upward momentum AND 30/60 min charts show confirmed reversal signs. Also, use tight stops just above those resistance zones. It is also a good idea to scale-in such short setup, with the bulk of short-position added ONLY when the reversal is confirmed on majority of indicators on the daily charts.

Trading from the long side is doable, but should restrict to day-trading or very short swing trade (2-3 days), and should enter on the dips instead of “break-outs” to minimize the risk/reward ratios.

Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: Swing S2, entry zone1=just below 138 with a stop just above 138; entry zone2=just below 145 with a stop just above 145. IT=128.
2. ADSK: speculative Swing S3 on top if it spikes towards 48 with a stop just above 48.2, IT=42.
3. AKAM: Swing S1, entry zone=35-36, stop just above 36, IT=30.
4. ANF: Swing S3, entry zone=82.9-84.9, stop just above 85, IT=75.
5. ANN: Swing S3, entry zone=34.5-35.4(EMA200), stop just above 36, IT=30.5.
6. ARO: Swing S3, enter if it spikes towards 25, stop just above 25.5 (EMA50), EMA200=25.2, IT=22.
7. BIDU: speculative swing S3 on top if it spikes towards 215, closing stop just above 215, and intra-day stop just above 220.
8. COH: counter-trend-trading between 42 and 47 use very tight stop, don’t trade the mid-range.
9. DVN: Counter-trend trading between 72.5 and 80 use tight stops, don’t trade the mid-range.
10. FFIV: Swing S2 on top if it spikes towards 40 with stop just above 40.5, IT=37.
11. GOOG: Swing S2 on top if it spikes towards 525, with a stop just above 527, IT=503.
12. ILMN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=43.7, CS just below EMA50, IDS just below 43, IT=49.
13. JCG: Swing S3 on top if it spikes towards 54/57 use very tight stops, IT=48.
14. NTAP: Swing S2 on top if it spikes towards 30, with stop just above 30.5, IT=26.
15. SINA: Swing S2, entry zone=43-44.4, stop just above 44.5, IT=39.
16. SONS: S1 on top if it spikes toward 6.5 with a stop just above 6.5, IT=5.8.
17. STP: S1 on top if it spikes towards 40 with a stop just above, IT=34.
18. TIF: S1 on top, entry zone=48.5-50, stop just above 50.
19. SU: S3 on top, entry zone=91-93, stop just above 93, IT=85.

Weekly Trading Calls -- July 30-Aug.3

On the market:

The market ignored some very positive Q2 reports and obsessed with the credit-crunch woes last week and suffered a mini-meltdown. The huge losses across the board have significantly damaged the fundamental technicals underlying the multi-month uptrend. The extent and speed of the decline, especially the failed stabilization/rebound attempt on last Friday, clearly suggest that the jittery and crisis may lie deeper than most people expected. On the other hand, it is still premature to say that the uptrend is now convincingly reversed. As all major indices now oversold and sit just above their key support levels, I fully expect a technical rebound next week with a likely retest of their MA50 levels:

NASDAQ: strong support around 2530. Key resistance: EMA50=2618, around 2630
SP500: strong support around 1450. Key resistance: EMA50=1514, also around 1490.
DOW: strong support around 12845. Key resistance: EMA50=13529, also around 13700.

The overall trading strategy for August should be: short on top when the major indices and stocks rebound back to the key resistance levels. For very short-time frame trading, long at the bottoms as long as the indices stay above the aforementioned key support levels. However, for any long trades, be careful with the position sizes and be ready to take quick profits.

The bottom line: for the first time in months, there are solid signals pointing to a start of a bearish reversal of the uptrend. As always the case during the early stage of a trend reversal, one should start to establish short swing positions, but do so with patience and fully expecting of some dramatic rebounds.

L1: strong buy, untrend plays, may hold. L2: rebound-buy, only for a quick profit.

1. AEO: speculative L2, entry around 24 or as low as possible, IT=27, make sure you have a risk/reward ratio of 1:6 or better.

2. AMD: L2 on bottom, entry zone=13-13.71, stop just below 13, IT=15.5

3. ANN: L2 on bottom, entry zone=32.25-33, IT=34, stop just below 32, make sure you have a risk/reward ratio of 1:6 or better.

4. BIDU: L1, entry zone 200-204, stop just below 200, IT=215.

5. BRCM: L1, entry zone=32-32.3, stop just below 32, IT=34.5

6. COH: report Q2 on July 31, consider long near 42 if it spikes down initially, IT=48.5.

7. COST: L1, entry zone=57.25-58.5, stop just below 57, IT=61.

8. CTRP: L1, entry zone=72-74, IT=82

9. DVN: S1 on top if it spikes towards 78, stop just above 78.5, IT=71

10. FNM: S1 on top if it spikes towards 63, stop just above, IT=55.

11. HD: L2, entry zone 35.3-36.4, stop just below 35, IT=39.

12. ILMN: L1, entry zone=42.5-45, stop just below 42.

13. LRCX: L1, entry zone 55-56.1, stop just below 55, IT=60

14. MRVL: L1 if it spikes towards 18, stop just below 18, IT=20.

15. RACK: L1, entry zone=11.25-12, closing stop<11.25, intra-day stop just below 11, IT=14.

16. SBUX: L1, entry zone=25-25.61, stop just below 25.75, IT=28.5

17. SINA: L1, entry zone40-41.1, stop just below 40, IT=46. (Q2 on Aug. 7)

18. SNDA: speculative L2 if it spikes towards 27 with a stop just below, IT=30.

19. STP: L1 if it spikes towards 37, stop just below 36.5, IT=42.

20. X: S1 on top if it rebounds to EMA50 around 109, stop just above 110, IT=92

Swing calls -- July 22, 2007

On the market:

Last week turned out to be one of the most dramatic week in recent months, after notching new highs, all major indices registered a losing week. The overall reactions to the first week of peak Q2 reports are mildly negative. Earning reports will continue to pour in next week, feathering key companies in the oil sector, housing sector and tech titans such as TXN and AAPL. If market continues to react negatively, the major indices may be set to test key supports such as MA50. However, until the major indices broke their MA50, the trend is still up. One sector that demands particular attention is the banking sector, whose index just produced a death cross (see Trade Mike's chart and comments). All companies in this sector are now perfect short-on-top candidates. If the financial heavy weights continue their rapid descend, the possibility of new market highs will be significantly diminished.

1. AAPL: will report Q2 in Wed AH, also, Tuesday's AT&T Q2 report may also reveal iPhone sale situation and therefore impact AAPL price. Keep eye on key supports around 115, EMA50=122.7 and 127.5 if it drops following the report. Look at GOOG for possible AH play on the long side.

2. BIDU: S2 on top only if it spikes towards key resistance near 200 and 210 use very tight stop, don't go long unless it spikes towards EMA50 currently near 163.5.

3. BRCM: L1 on bottom whenever it spikes towards EMA10.

4. COST: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50 currently around 58.3.

5. ELN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 19.4, stop just below 18.9, IT=22.

6. HD: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 38, stop just below 37.8, IT=40.5

7. ILMN: will report Q2 on Wed. Keep eye on key supports around 35.5,37, EMA50=38.4, and prepare to trade from the long side if it drops quick in AH, however, if it breaks solidly above 42.3, consider buying the break-out!

8. LRCX: L1 if it drops to 55-56 due to market correction, stop just below 55.

9. MRVL: L1 if it spikes down towards 18/18.5, with CS<18.5, IDS around 17.8, IT=21.

10. PFCB: currently long at 35.21, will report earning around Wed noon. Consider exit half position if it spikes towards 36 on Monday and close all position if it spikes towards 37. intra-day stop just below 34.7 and closing stop just below 35.15.

11. RACK: reports on Thursday AH, long if it breaks 14.2, and watch for key support around 11.2.

12. SBUX: L1 if it spikes towards 26.8, IDS just below 25.8 and CS just below 25.5.

13. X: reports Q2 on Tuesday, it is poised to break down based on the chart, S1 if it spikes towards 116 with a tight stop?

14. AMZN: will report on Tues AH. watch for key supports around 60, 63.7, and 67.5 (EMA50). Long at 60 or 63.7 may be considered if it spikes down in the first few minutes following the report,but tight stop, small position size and quick profit-booking are needed.

15. DHI: will report on Thursday, it is approaching a historic support around 18.5. It made new 1-yr low last week, I suspect that the Q2 report will turn it around.


The following banking/brokers are poised to fall further, however, they are all not far away from key support levels (often strong long term supports), therefore, for swing trading, the best is to wait for them to bounce back towards EMA50, which will offer setups with good risk/reward ratios. On the other hand, they can be day-traded from the short side based on 10 day 30 min charts.

1. BAC: S2, entry zone=49.1-50.25, stop just above 51, IT around 47.

2. BSC: S1, entry zone=139-145.2 (EMA50), stop just above 146, IT around 127.

3. GS: S2 if it spikes towards it EMA50 (currently 220.6) stop just above 221, IT around 198.

4. LEH: S2 if it spikes towards its EMA50 (currently at 74.4) with a stop just above 75.

6. MER: S2, entry zone=83.8(EMA10)-86.9(EMA50), stop just above 87, IT=78.

7. MS: S2 if it spikes towards 70 or 73.5 use tight stops, IT around 65.

Swing trade calls -- July 15, 2007

On the market:

The persistent advance of NASDAQ finally drove both DOW and SP500 to the new highs last week. On any charts from any angles, the break-out is solid, though could be more convincing had the overall volumes been higher. Speak of the volumes, I have a gut feeling that the short-covering played a significant part in the dramatic bull run on last Thursday and follow-through on Friday. The relatively light volumes tell me:

1. Big boys are not adding to their long positions at this level, nor taking profits right now. They are probably waiting until they see a clear signal of Q2 report/Q3 outlook.

2. The shorts are yet to capitulate, which means that the market may have more room to run up.

All major indices and a lot of stocks are in extremely overbought region, which means swing-long at the current levels may not be very profitable. Buy-the-dip remains the best strategy.

The coming week is likely to set the tone for the earning season, if the market reacts very positively, I think there will be at least another 3-6 weeks of bull run (into mid or late August). Technically speaking, it is hard to conceive that the overall trend would reverse even if the Q reports from many key companies come in lower than expected.

Short plays should be avoided as a general rule.

1. AMD: L2, entry zone=14.81-15.2, stop just below 14.4, IT=16.

2. ANF: S1 if it spikes towards 79, stop just above 79.5, IT=71.

3. BBY: L2, entry zone=45-46.7, IT=50, clear bullish divergence on the weekly chart.

4. BIDU: L1 if it spikes towards 195 or 200 use very tight stops.

5. BRCM: L1 if it spikes towards 31.1, stop just below 31, IT=33.5.

6. GOOG: Consider L1 around 515 if it pulls back on earning in AH, stop below 500.

7. LRCX: watch for the 55 resistance, a close above 55 with volume could drive it to a new high.

8. MRVL: L1, entry zone 17.75-18.1, stop just below 17.7, IT around 19.5

9. NUE: S1 if it spikes towards 67 with a stop just above it, IT=60.

10. RIMM: L1 if it spikes towards 217, stop just below 215.

11. SHLD: S1 if it spikes towards 162, stop just above 162.5, IT=153.

12. SONS: S1, entry zone8.4-8.68, stop just above 8.7, IT=8

13. URBN: S1 if it spikes towards 23, CS>23, IT=20?

14. DRIV: S1 if it spikes towards 50, stop just above, IT around 46.

Swing trade calls -- July 8, 2007

On the market:

The NASDAQ had a low volume break-out week while both SP500 and DOW are approach their early June high for the 3rd time. Bears would be in a new round of despair if SP and DOW join NASDAQ to break to the new high in the coming days, and that may be determined by the early tone of the Q2 report season. If the market reverses right now, bears may be looking at a triple top formation, however, unless the major indices do break their early-June low, bulls can continue enjoy their party.

On the overall trading strategy:

The safest is buy-the-dip, shorts may only apply to those whose Q reports greeted by negative reactions AND have subsequently been rebounding as the rising water lifting all the ships.

1. ADBE: S2 on top, entry zone=42.4-43, stop just above 43.3, IT=39.

2. ADI: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 40, stop just above 41.1, IT=36.5.

3. BBY: S1 on top, entry zone=49.4-50, stop just above 50, IT=47.

4. ILMN: L1 if it breaks 42, CS<42 with a bearish candle,IDS
5. LRCX: S1 if it breaks and closes below 50.6, stop around 52, IT=47.5.

6. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 64 with a stop just above, IT=59/60.

7. WLT: CTT watch as it approaches 32.5.

Swing trade calls -- July 1, 2007

On the market:

There are plenty of signals that the bulls are losing strength, however, the major indices need to break its June low before bears can claim any upper hands. I still feel that the kick-off of Q2 report season will have a decisive impact on the intermediate term trend of major indices. Until that happens, play counter-trend trading near key S/R levels will have the best RSK/RWD ratio.

1. AAPL: Monday's market reaction to its iPhone IPO weekend may signal its near-term trend, go long if it breaks 126/127.61 with a stop just below 124/125, and consider short it it breaks/closes below 119/115, with IT around 104. MA50=113.4.

2. ADBE: S1, entry zone=41-42(MA50), stop just above 42, IT=37.5.

3. BBY: S1, entry zone=47.3-47.8, stop just above 48, or 48.4-48.9(EMA200), stop just above 49., IT=45.5.

4. BOBJ: S2, entry zone=39.7-40.8, stop just above 41, TI=EMA200=37,

5. COH: S1, entry zone=48.7-50, stop just above 50, or if it breaks/closes below 46, IT=42.

6. LRCX: S1 when it breaks/closes below 50.6 with a bearish candle, stop just above 51, IT=EMA200=49.3, may consider S1 on top if it spikes towards 55, with a stop just above 55.

7. MRVL: L1, entry zone=17.2-18, stop just below 17, IT=19.5.

8. NUE: S1, entry zone=60-62, stop just above 62, IT=53.

9. SNDA: L1, entry zone=28.6-30.1, stop just below 27.5,

10. X: S3 (possibly in early trend reversal stage, patient and scaled entry), entry zone=113-117.5, stop just above 118, IT=100

Swing trade calls -- June 16, 2007

On the market:

Looks like my previous predication of a top is falling apart. The strength and extent of the rebound exceeds a little bit of my expectation, and I must say that I am amazed to see how the market ignores the bad aspects while intensively focuses on the good aspects of any inflation report. However, I find it very hard to find the reasons that the inflation will stop rising, on the contrary, I think the non-core inflation, which the Wall Street has completely ignored so far, will gradually drive up the overall inflation, and that is only a matter of time. I still think the the cross over of 5% of the 10 year bond yield is a very significant event. The market will most likely consolidate at the current level until the Q2 report season kicks in in 3 weeks, which may dictate the next meaningful move of the major indices.

On what small players should do right now:

If you are not a trend decider, you must either follow the trend or just sit out. Don't fight the trend or you will be punished!

The bottom line is that the easy money on the long side has been made. Going long near the current high does not have a good risk/reward ratio, buying the dip use MA50 as stop reference is probably the safest way to approach the market right now.

1. AAPL: S1, entry zone=124-127, stop just above 127.7, IT=110.

2. ADBE: S1, entry zone=43.3-44.5, stop just above 45, IT=41.

3. AKAM: S2, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=46.5

4. COH: S1, entry zone=51-52, stop just above 52, IT=47.

5. ERTS: S1, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=49.

6. ILMN: L1, entry zone=36.3-38, stop just below 35.5, IT=42.

7. NUE: S1, entry zone=64.5-67, stop just above 67.5, IT=60.

8. NVDA: L1, entry zone=37-39, stop just below 37. IT=41

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.1-12.6, stop just below 12, IT=13.5. OR when it breaks and closes above 14.3, IT=16.8.

10. SNDA: L1, entry zone=27-27.6, stop just below 27, IT=30.6

12. SNDK: L1, entry zone=44-45.5, stop just below 44, IT=50.

Another dip before new high?

My answer to that question is NO for at least 3 months, why? because the 10 yr bond yield surged across the key 5% and closed at 5.1% today. Do I expect a rebound as the major indices approaching their key support zone near EMA50? very much so and I am looking for some buys. The bottom line is that the overall uptrend is yet to be reversed, but the precipitous drop of the major indices this week could signal the beginning of the end of the 10 month long strong up trend.

I will not be eager to establish swing shorts at this stage. I will be very patient for entering the long positions and will also cut the hold period for the long positions.

1. ADBE: L2, entry zone=41-42.2, stop just below 40.6, IT=43.2

2. BIDU: L2, entry zone=127-134, stop just below 127, IT=140.

3. CHAP: S3 on top, entry zone=70.5-71.2, stop just above 72, IT=65.

4. COH: S3 on top, entry zone=48.8-49.4, IDS just above 50, CS just above 49.5.

5. CRM: L2, entry zone=42.2-43.7, stop just below 42, IT=46.5

6. ESRX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 93.7, IDS just below 92, CS when closes below 93.7 with a bearish candle, IT=100.

7. LRCX: L2 if it spikes towards 49, stop just below 48.7, IT=52.

8. NUE: Quick L2 flip if it spikes to 60 or 63 with a very tight stop.

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.3-12.7, IT=13.6, stop around 12.

10. SINA: L1 when it spikes towards 36.5, IDS just below 36, CS just below EMA50 with a bearish candle.

11. SNDA: L2, entry zone=25.4-26, IT=28, stop just below 25.

12. SONS: L1 if it spikes towards 8.1, stop just below 8, IT=9.

13. TIF: Quick L2 flip if it spikes towards 47.7, IDS just below 47, IT=51

14. WLT: Quick L1 flip if it spikes towards 28, stop just below 27.5.

15. ARO: consider quick L2 flip if it spikes towards EMA50=43.5 or 42.5 use very tight stops.

16. USU: L2, entry zone 20.4-21.1, stop just below 20, IT=23

17. SGR: L1,if it spikes towards 36, use EMA50 as CS stop reference, IT=40.

Swing trade calls -- June 2, 2007

On the market:

I sense a fundamental change in the collective market mentality in the past 2-3 weeks: the bullish attitude has been solidified to such that the action (buy-on-dip) starts to firmly reflect the attitude. It is also quite clear that there is still quite a long way to go before the bullishness reach a frantic/crazy level, therefore, as a whole, swing short should be avoided. The market is unmistakably bullish, but with the interest rates continue to climb (the 10 yr yield is poised to break the key 5% level), more explosive movement to the upside may not occur before some kind of consolidations. The less-than-impressive up volumes in recent days indicate that big boys are not eager to commit more nor to take profit at this stage. So what do we do for swing trades? Avoid swing short and be patient with swing longs--both entry and exit.

1. NM: L1, entry zone=10.3-10.6, CS=bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 10.

2. OI: L1, entry zone=31.8-33.6, CS=very bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 31.7.

3. PCU: L1, entry zone=88-92.5, stop just below 87.

4. SGR: L1, entry zone=39.4-40.8, stop when it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

5. USU: L2, entry zone=20.7-21.3, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle, IT=24.5.

6. ADBE: L1, entry zone=43-44.2, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle or below 42.

6. BIDU: L1, entry zone=134-136, cs=very bearish close below 134, IDS=129.

7. CHRW: L1, entry zone=52-53, IDS=just below 50, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=57.

8. CRM: L1, entry zone=44.3-46.5, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=50.

9. GOOG: L1, entry zone=486-492 OR when it breaks 515.

10. RACK: L1, entry zone=11.5-12.1, stop just below 11.5, IT=EMA50=13.6, next target around 16.

10. SINA: L1, entry zone=38-38.8, stop if it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

11. TXN: L1, entry zone=34.5-35.5, IT=37, CS just below 34.5, IDS just below EMA10.

Swing calls -- May 22, 2007

Got some time to kill tonight, so here are some swing trade calls.

On the market: the bulls are just unstoppable, the bears, well, they are trying hard--just saw a link from the Kirk Report that the short interests are continuing to climb, and you have to wonder if these stubborn and early bears will see their grave before seeing the light of their pay day. Shorting is becoming very dangerous, even if you follow the charts of individual stocks, the river keeps rising, and that makes harder to sink any boats. On the other hand, long positions initiated at this stage may not have a decent risk/reward ratio, therefore, pick your own poison, or maybe the best is just sit tight and watch the show :P

1. ADI: S1, entry zone=38-39.5, stop just above 40.2, IT=34.

2. AFFX: S1, entry zone=25.1-26.8, stop just above 27 or EMA50, IT=23

3. ANN, S1, entry zone=37-37.3, stop just above EMA50, IT=35.

5. COH: S2, entry zone=49.5-51, stop just above 51, IT=EMA200 around 44.

6. MEDx: L1, entry zone=15.75-16.1, stop just below 15.7,

7. OCR: S1, entry zone=38.9-41, stop just above EMA200

8. SNDA: L2, entry zone=27.5-29, stop just below 27.

9. VRTX: L1, entry zone=30-31 (EMA50), stop just below 30, IT=36,

10. WFMI: S1, entry zone=41-EMA50, stop just above EMA50 or 44.

11. WSM: S1, entry zone=34.7-35.35, stop just above that, IT=33.

Weekly Swing Trading Calls -- May 12, 2007

I am going to try a completely different approach: instead of focusing on very short time frame, I will try to develop a strategy for swing trade, meaning that the weekly chart will become the center of the trading analysis, and holding time frame will change from 1-3 days to 1-4 weeks.

On the major indices:

It is hard to be a bear in this market, but it might be even harder to be a full-charging bull at this stage. The bottom line is that this is a up-trending market, and until if is proven otherwise, buy-on-dip is arguably the most sound approach. The ideal buy zone would be the NASDAQ from 2498 (EMA50) to 2530 and SP500 from 1450 to 1470.

1. AFFX: S1, entry zone=26-26.8-28.6, stop just above 28.8, IT=23.

2. AMD: L1, entry zone=13-14, or when it closes above 15, IT=17.5.

3. COH: S1, entry zone=48-51, stop if it closes above 51,IT=44.

4. MOT: L1, entry zone=17.65-18.02, stop just below 17.3, IT=20

5. MU: L1, entry zone=11.75-12.02, stop just below 11, IT=14

6. NVDA: L1, entry zone=32.1-33.5, IT=38

7. SHLD: S1, entry zone=179-181, stop just above 183.5, IT=168

8. URBN: S1, entry zone=25.5-26.5, stop just above 26.7, IT=23

9. WSM: S2, entry zone=34.9-35.8, stop just above 36, IT=30.

Swing calls -- May 9, 2007

I am settling down here in LA. Have not traded stocks since late March, which is the longest no-trading period since I started trading in 2001, kind of weird :) and the market has been even more weird during this period of time, as I have seen a lot more bearish signs than bullish ones every day in my life here. I admit that I did not expect it rising like this, especially NASDAQ. Bulls are in clear control here, but the party is probably not out of control yet, we shall see how long the good time will last...

Have a little bit of time to kill tonight, so I am going to look some charts, and try to make some swing trade calls (holding period 3 days-3 weeks) primarily based on the weekly charts, let's see how they turn out to be.

1. ADBE: S2, entry 42-43, stop just above 44, target 37-38.8 (EMA200),

2. AFFX: S1, entry zone=26.8-28.8, stop just above 29, target=20.5-23,

3. COH: S1, entry zone=50-52, stop just above 54, target=43.5-46,

4. SHLD: S1, entry zone=180-185, stop just above 190, target=168-171

Damn, how come I don't have any long calls? Will take a another look this weekend if I get time.

Best to all!

Daily Calls -- Friday, March 16, 2007

The overall volumes dropped significantly today as both bears and bulls slowed down to catch up their breath and position for tomorrow's quadruple option expiration day. Unlike others, I doubt tomorrow will be a very wild trading session, except for the first 30 min or so. I think bulls and bears are entering a "draw" stage and neither party is going to back down much. The material news that could change the deadlock won't come till next week at the earliest. It is probably a good time to take a little break.

1. AAPL: if the volume is light like today, CTT between 88/89 and 90.4 use tight stops.

2. ICE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 133/136 use tight stops, EMA50=134.8.

3. ARO: reported Q1 in AH, traded mostly between 38.8 and 39.74. Key S/R: EMA50=36.1, 37, 38.69 (day close), 39.35 (recently made 52-wk high).

4. SONS: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 7.8 with a stop just above.

Daily Calls -- Thur March 15, 2007

For a moment, the market looked like a playground for the bears, where bulls were running for their lives, but then the bulls turned back and chased the surprised bears all the way up till the close. Even though the major indices made intra-day lows that was below the previous lows, bulls' ferocious comeback marked the test a smashing success. As the result, I expect that the major indices will be range bound between their EMA200 and EMA50. Bulls will have a bit more time to make their case, but I doubt bears have enough patience to sit tight and listen up.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 88/89 and 93 use tight stops. bias on the long side.

2. BIDU: S1 on top if it spikes towards 102, with a stop just above 103, EMA50=98.2

3. BOBJ: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=36.8 with a stop just above 37, IT=EMA200=35.1.

4. CHAP: Speculative S3 on top with a stop just above 52.5, IT=EMA50=48.7.

5. ICE: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=135/138 use very tight stops.

6. MU: bull divergences continue to develop, either L2 or buy calls.

7. TIF: it is topping out, may consider buying puts here.

8. URBN: it is topping out, may consider buying puts here.