Swing trade calls -- June 16, 2007

On the market:

Looks like my previous predication of a top is falling apart. The strength and extent of the rebound exceeds a little bit of my expectation, and I must say that I am amazed to see how the market ignores the bad aspects while intensively focuses on the good aspects of any inflation report. However, I find it very hard to find the reasons that the inflation will stop rising, on the contrary, I think the non-core inflation, which the Wall Street has completely ignored so far, will gradually drive up the overall inflation, and that is only a matter of time. I still think the the cross over of 5% of the 10 year bond yield is a very significant event. The market will most likely consolidate at the current level until the Q2 report season kicks in in 3 weeks, which may dictate the next meaningful move of the major indices.

On what small players should do right now:

If you are not a trend decider, you must either follow the trend or just sit out. Don't fight the trend or you will be punished!

The bottom line is that the easy money on the long side has been made. Going long near the current high does not have a good risk/reward ratio, buying the dip use MA50 as stop reference is probably the safest way to approach the market right now.

1. AAPL: S1, entry zone=124-127, stop just above 127.7, IT=110.

2. ADBE: S1, entry zone=43.3-44.5, stop just above 45, IT=41.

3. AKAM: S2, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=46.5

4. COH: S1, entry zone=51-52, stop just above 52, IT=47.

5. ERTS: S1, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=49.

6. ILMN: L1, entry zone=36.3-38, stop just below 35.5, IT=42.

7. NUE: S1, entry zone=64.5-67, stop just above 67.5, IT=60.

8. NVDA: L1, entry zone=37-39, stop just below 37. IT=41

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.1-12.6, stop just below 12, IT=13.5. OR when it breaks and closes above 14.3, IT=16.8.

10. SNDA: L1, entry zone=27-27.6, stop just below 27, IT=30.6

12. SNDK: L1, entry zone=44-45.5, stop just below 44, IT=50.

Another dip before new high?

My answer to that question is NO for at least 3 months, why? because the 10 yr bond yield surged across the key 5% and closed at 5.1% today. Do I expect a rebound as the major indices approaching their key support zone near EMA50? very much so and I am looking for some buys. The bottom line is that the overall uptrend is yet to be reversed, but the precipitous drop of the major indices this week could signal the beginning of the end of the 10 month long strong up trend.

I will not be eager to establish swing shorts at this stage. I will be very patient for entering the long positions and will also cut the hold period for the long positions.

1. ADBE: L2, entry zone=41-42.2, stop just below 40.6, IT=43.2

2. BIDU: L2, entry zone=127-134, stop just below 127, IT=140.

3. CHAP: S3 on top, entry zone=70.5-71.2, stop just above 72, IT=65.

4. COH: S3 on top, entry zone=48.8-49.4, IDS just above 50, CS just above 49.5.

5. CRM: L2, entry zone=42.2-43.7, stop just below 42, IT=46.5

6. ESRX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 93.7, IDS just below 92, CS when closes below 93.7 with a bearish candle, IT=100.

7. LRCX: L2 if it spikes towards 49, stop just below 48.7, IT=52.

8. NUE: Quick L2 flip if it spikes to 60 or 63 with a very tight stop.

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.3-12.7, IT=13.6, stop around 12.

10. SINA: L1 when it spikes towards 36.5, IDS just below 36, CS just below EMA50 with a bearish candle.

11. SNDA: L2, entry zone=25.4-26, IT=28, stop just below 25.

12. SONS: L1 if it spikes towards 8.1, stop just below 8, IT=9.

13. TIF: Quick L2 flip if it spikes towards 47.7, IDS just below 47, IT=51

14. WLT: Quick L1 flip if it spikes towards 28, stop just below 27.5.

15. ARO: consider quick L2 flip if it spikes towards EMA50=43.5 or 42.5 use very tight stops.

16. USU: L2, entry zone 20.4-21.1, stop just below 20, IT=23

17. SGR: L1,if it spikes towards 36, use EMA50 as CS stop reference, IT=40.

Swing trade calls -- June 2, 2007

On the market:

I sense a fundamental change in the collective market mentality in the past 2-3 weeks: the bullish attitude has been solidified to such that the action (buy-on-dip) starts to firmly reflect the attitude. It is also quite clear that there is still quite a long way to go before the bullishness reach a frantic/crazy level, therefore, as a whole, swing short should be avoided. The market is unmistakably bullish, but with the interest rates continue to climb (the 10 yr yield is poised to break the key 5% level), more explosive movement to the upside may not occur before some kind of consolidations. The less-than-impressive up volumes in recent days indicate that big boys are not eager to commit more nor to take profit at this stage. So what do we do for swing trades? Avoid swing short and be patient with swing longs--both entry and exit.

1. NM: L1, entry zone=10.3-10.6, CS=bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 10.

2. OI: L1, entry zone=31.8-33.6, CS=very bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 31.7.

3. PCU: L1, entry zone=88-92.5, stop just below 87.

4. SGR: L1, entry zone=39.4-40.8, stop when it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

5. USU: L2, entry zone=20.7-21.3, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle, IT=24.5.

6. ADBE: L1, entry zone=43-44.2, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle or below 42.

6. BIDU: L1, entry zone=134-136, cs=very bearish close below 134, IDS=129.

7. CHRW: L1, entry zone=52-53, IDS=just below 50, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=57.

8. CRM: L1, entry zone=44.3-46.5, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=50.

9. GOOG: L1, entry zone=486-492 OR when it breaks 515.

10. RACK: L1, entry zone=11.5-12.1, stop just below 11.5, IT=EMA50=13.6, next target around 16.

10. SINA: L1, entry zone=38-38.8, stop if it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

11. TXN: L1, entry zone=34.5-35.5, IT=37, CS just below 34.5, IDS just below EMA10.

Swing calls -- May 22, 2007

Got some time to kill tonight, so here are some swing trade calls.

On the market: the bulls are just unstoppable, the bears, well, they are trying hard--just saw a link from the Kirk Report that the short interests are continuing to climb, and you have to wonder if these stubborn and early bears will see their grave before seeing the light of their pay day. Shorting is becoming very dangerous, even if you follow the charts of individual stocks, the river keeps rising, and that makes harder to sink any boats. On the other hand, long positions initiated at this stage may not have a decent risk/reward ratio, therefore, pick your own poison, or maybe the best is just sit tight and watch the show :P

1. ADI: S1, entry zone=38-39.5, stop just above 40.2, IT=34.

2. AFFX: S1, entry zone=25.1-26.8, stop just above 27 or EMA50, IT=23

3. ANN, S1, entry zone=37-37.3, stop just above EMA50, IT=35.

5. COH: S2, entry zone=49.5-51, stop just above 51, IT=EMA200 around 44.

6. MEDx: L1, entry zone=15.75-16.1, stop just below 15.7,

7. OCR: S1, entry zone=38.9-41, stop just above EMA200

8. SNDA: L2, entry zone=27.5-29, stop just below 27.

9. VRTX: L1, entry zone=30-31 (EMA50), stop just below 30, IT=36,

10. WFMI: S1, entry zone=41-EMA50, stop just above EMA50 or 44.

11. WSM: S1, entry zone=34.7-35.35, stop just above that, IT=33.

Weekly Swing Trading Calls -- May 12, 2007

I am going to try a completely different approach: instead of focusing on very short time frame, I will try to develop a strategy for swing trade, meaning that the weekly chart will become the center of the trading analysis, and holding time frame will change from 1-3 days to 1-4 weeks.

On the major indices:

It is hard to be a bear in this market, but it might be even harder to be a full-charging bull at this stage. The bottom line is that this is a up-trending market, and until if is proven otherwise, buy-on-dip is arguably the most sound approach. The ideal buy zone would be the NASDAQ from 2498 (EMA50) to 2530 and SP500 from 1450 to 1470.

1. AFFX: S1, entry zone=26-26.8-28.6, stop just above 28.8, IT=23.

2. AMD: L1, entry zone=13-14, or when it closes above 15, IT=17.5.

3. COH: S1, entry zone=48-51, stop if it closes above 51,IT=44.

4. MOT: L1, entry zone=17.65-18.02, stop just below 17.3, IT=20

5. MU: L1, entry zone=11.75-12.02, stop just below 11, IT=14

6. NVDA: L1, entry zone=32.1-33.5, IT=38

7. SHLD: S1, entry zone=179-181, stop just above 183.5, IT=168

8. URBN: S1, entry zone=25.5-26.5, stop just above 26.7, IT=23

9. WSM: S2, entry zone=34.9-35.8, stop just above 36, IT=30.

Swing calls -- May 9, 2007

I am settling down here in LA. Have not traded stocks since late March, which is the longest no-trading period since I started trading in 2001, kind of weird :) and the market has been even more weird during this period of time, as I have seen a lot more bearish signs than bullish ones every day in my life here. I admit that I did not expect it rising like this, especially NASDAQ. Bulls are in clear control here, but the party is probably not out of control yet, we shall see how long the good time will last...

Have a little bit of time to kill tonight, so I am going to look some charts, and try to make some swing trade calls (holding period 3 days-3 weeks) primarily based on the weekly charts, let's see how they turn out to be.

1. ADBE: S2, entry 42-43, stop just above 44, target 37-38.8 (EMA200),

2. AFFX: S1, entry zone=26.8-28.8, stop just above 29, target=20.5-23,

3. COH: S1, entry zone=50-52, stop just above 54, target=43.5-46,

4. SHLD: S1, entry zone=180-185, stop just above 190, target=168-171

Damn, how come I don't have any long calls? Will take a another look this weekend if I get time.

Best to all!

Daily Calls -- Friday, March 16, 2007

The overall volumes dropped significantly today as both bears and bulls slowed down to catch up their breath and position for tomorrow's quadruple option expiration day. Unlike others, I doubt tomorrow will be a very wild trading session, except for the first 30 min or so. I think bulls and bears are entering a "draw" stage and neither party is going to back down much. The material news that could change the deadlock won't come till next week at the earliest. It is probably a good time to take a little break.

1. AAPL: if the volume is light like today, CTT between 88/89 and 90.4 use tight stops.

2. ICE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 133/136 use tight stops, EMA50=134.8.

3. ARO: reported Q1 in AH, traded mostly between 38.8 and 39.74. Key S/R: EMA50=36.1, 37, 38.69 (day close), 39.35 (recently made 52-wk high).

4. SONS: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 7.8 with a stop just above.

Daily Calls -- Thur March 15, 2007

For a moment, the market looked like a playground for the bears, where bulls were running for their lives, but then the bulls turned back and chased the surprised bears all the way up till the close. Even though the major indices made intra-day lows that was below the previous lows, bulls' ferocious comeback marked the test a smashing success. As the result, I expect that the major indices will be range bound between their EMA200 and EMA50. Bulls will have a bit more time to make their case, but I doubt bears have enough patience to sit tight and listen up.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 88/89 and 93 use tight stops. bias on the long side.

2. BIDU: S1 on top if it spikes towards 102, with a stop just above 103, EMA50=98.2

3. BOBJ: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=36.8 with a stop just above 37, IT=EMA200=35.1.

4. CHAP: Speculative S3 on top with a stop just above 52.5, IT=EMA50=48.7.

5. ICE: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=135/138 use very tight stops.

6. MU: bull divergences continue to develop, either L2 or buy calls.

7. TIF: it is topping out, may consider buying puts here.

8. URBN: it is topping out, may consider buying puts here.

Daily Calls -- Weds March 16, 2007

Well, turns out that bears found the catalyst first and bulls were looking for their broken teeth everywhere. Tomorrow will be crucial for both bears and bulls as the major indices are poised to test the recent low. A close below those lows could triger even bigger sell-off in the days to follow, a successful test of those lows, on the other hand, will definitely buy bulls some time to regroup.

1. AAPL: DT-L2 on bottom with a stop just below 87.4, IT-90.

2. ICE: Either S1 on top use EMA50=135.2 as stop reference or when it breaks 127, IT=123.

3. SNDK: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 39 with a stop just below 38.8, IT=42.

4. SONS: DT-CTT between 6.8 and 7.3 use tight stops, don't trade the mid range.

5. Most of the stocks on my list are the candidates for the short-on-top setups if they spikes towards the high ends of today's ranges.

Daily Calls -- March 13, Tue, 2007

The market continues rebound on declining volume. Bulls should be happy since no one is really motivated to sell, bears can take comfort on the very light volume. Looks like everyone is waiting for some kind of catalyst or signs, conviction is probably in short supply on the Wall Street right now.

1. AAPL: CTT between 89/89.4 and 93, don't trade the mid-range.

2. AKAM: speculative S2 on top, entry zone 53 (EMA50)-54.5, stop just above 54.6. Be a bit patient, better wait for intra-day reversal signal near the key R levels before opening any position.

3. SONS: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 7.8 with a stop just above.

4. COH, ICE: refer to the weekly calls.

Weekly Trading Calls -- March 12-16, 2007

First, this is my last post of the weekly trading calls for a while. I will be relocating to LA and starting a new position in April, and I don't think I will be able to trade at least for the first several months. I have a lot of thoughts as I am winding my trading activities next week, which all started in 2001, and if I get time in the coming days, I will share some of those with you. I expect to continue posting the daily calls for the coming week.

My overall trading strategy for this stage is on the short side, especially the SW-short-on-top setups, I would avoid any SW-long trades, but I may take some DT-long trades when the market rebounds.

1. AAPL: DT-CTT between 83/EMA50=86.4 and 89 use very tight stops, bias neutral. Don't trade the mid-range.

2. ADSK: DT-CTT between 37 and 40 use tight stops, bias is on the short side, EMA50=41.1, EMA200=39.

3. AKAM: DT-CTT between EMA200=45.8 and 52/EMA50=53, bias on the short side, don't trade the mid range.

4. BOBJ: SW-S1 on top if it spikes towards 36-EMA50=37.1, IDS>37.5, DS=37, IT=33.66.

5. COH: speculative S2 on top, entry zone=50-51, stop just above 51, IT=EMA50=46.5.

7. DVN: speculative S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=66.9 with a stop just above 67, OR when it closes below 63 with a bearish candle.

8. ENER: S2 on top if it spikes towards 35 use EMA200=35.4 as stop references. EMA50=32.7.

9. FMCN: CTT between 71 and 79 use very tight stops, EMA50=76.9, EMA200=65.5.

10. ICE: SW-S2 (100 share) on top if it spikes towards 138 with a stop just above, IT=123.

11. NUE: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 66, stop just above 67, IT=60.

12. SONS: S2 on top, entry zone 7.28-7.48, stop just above 7.6, IT=6.8.

13. STP: SW-S2 on top, entry zone 39.5-40.5, stop just above 41, It=33.

14. URBN: speculative S2 on top if it spikes toward 26.6 with stop just above 26.7, IT=24.

15. X: speculative SW-S2 on top if it spikes 94 with a stop just above 95, IT=86.

Weekend notes -- March 10 ,2007

Last Friday's market reaction to seemingly bullish Feb employment report was anything but bullish, it was pretty much a gap-then-crap for major indices and a lot stocks, even though the market mounted a late session rebound to close nearly flat, the tape just did not look good for the bulls.

On the weekly charts, despite of the fact that all major indices had some respectable gains for the week, they just look pale in comparison to the huge drop in the prior week. Technical indicators are overall on the bearish side.

On the daily charts, while all major indices made a successful test of EMA200, their attempt to test the overheaded EMA50 clearly fall short. Technical indicators are mixed.

Next week or two will be crucial: the longer the rebound stalls below EMA50, the higher the likelihood that the market will have another leg down. Personally, I don't expect the bulls to give it up right away, and it is entirely possible that a test of EMA50 may come up, but at this stage, I doubt that the bulls will be able to hold the market above EMA50, and I firmly believe that the top is in for the major indices and that the overall down trend will persist for the next 2-4 months if not longer.

weekly calls will be posted later....

Daily Calls -- March 9, Friday, 2007

A sudden sell-off around 2:30 pm almost derailed bulls' rebound, but they mustered enough strength to stay in the green. NASDAQ failed to close above the key resistance around 2390, while SP500 managed to close above the key 1400 support. The low volume rebound will be tested tomorrow when the Feb employment report releases BMO, and we will see how much life still left for the bulls.

1. AKAM: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=53.1/54.4 use very tight stops.

2. ENER: DT-S1 on top if it spikes towards 34.75, stop just above 35, EMA50=32.7, EMA200=35.4.

3. FFIV: S1 on top if it spikes towards 73, use EMA50=73.2 as stop references.

4. FNM: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=57.3 use a tight stop.

5. ICE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 136, stop just above 137. EMA=135.6; also consider S1 if it breaks down 128.5, IT=123.

6. LRCX: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA200=46.3/EMA50=46.7, stop just above 47.

7. MA: S2 on top if it spikes towards EMA50/106 use tight stops, IT=99.

8. MRVL: speculative DT-L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 18, stop just below 17.8.

9. NVDA: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=32.6 use a tight stop.

10. SNDK: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA50=41/42 use tight stops.

11. URBN: DT-CTT between today's high=26.65 and low=24 use tight stops, bias on short side.

Daily Calls -- March 8, Thursday, 2007

Bulls tried hard to keep the rebound going, but after failing to break the key resistances (1400 for SP500 and 2390 for NASDAQ), major indices slided back to the red in the end. It has mostly a boring session as many stocks set the day range early in the session, and I suspect that will continue until after Friday's Feb employment report.

1. AEOS: S1 on top if it spikes towards 31, use EMA50=31.4 as stop references. Its first test of EMA200=28.3 was successful, but its long up trend is clearly reversed.

2. CEPH: S1 on top if it spikes towards 68, stop just above 68.5, EMA200=67.7.

3. DVN: DT-L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 64.5 with a stop just below 64, IT=EMA50=67.1

4. NTAP: closed just above the key EMA200=36.4 today, next support is around 35.5...

5. SONS: S1 on top if it spikes towards EMA=7.1, with stop just above 7.2.

Daily Calls -- Weds March 7, 2007

Bulls had a good bounce today, which came in lower volume. The short-term oversold bounce may continue another day or two, or even three if this Friday's Feb employment report favors the bulls, in which case, we may see a lot of stocks testing their EMA50, but I suspect that would be a good-bye kiss before the market resumes the downward motion. If you did not get in today, you might have missed the major part of the rebound. For me, I will focus on the short-on-top setups in the coming days.

1. AEOS: Wait for its Q1 report in AH. Consider S1 on top if it spikes towards 31 use EMA50=31.5 as stop reference, IT=EMA200=28.3

2. BIDU: DT-S2 on top if it spikes towards 108 with a stop just above.

3. FMCN: speculative S2 on top if it spikes towards 79 with a stop just above, EMA50=77.

4. GOOG: S1 on top, entry zone=464-468, stop just above 470, IT=440.

5. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 61.8/63 use tight stops, IT=58.

6.NVDA: S1 on top if it spikes towards 32.5 use EMA50=32.8 as stop reference.

7. SONS: S1 on top, entry zone 7.06-7.29, CS=EMA50=7.2, IDS just above 7.3.