Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Big Ben turns hawkish?!

When Big Ben turns hawkish, the real inflation picture is likely to be worse than most would imagine, and that casts a long shadow for the market in the months to come. In the meantime, bulls tried very hard to hang in there, and they might get some bounce tomorrow. I hope many energy/commodity names will move up in next few days so I can find better entry points, possibly use backspread puts as initial top catching strategy.

I bought AAPL July 185 calls this morning when it broke 183.5, and exited half near 186, while holding the rest for tomorrow. I did not keep all for tomorrow mostly because I am getting concerned that something bad might occur (just look at the charts of LEH and WM) that will drag the market down. I keep half of the position because even though it failed to close above MA10, it formed a nice bullish engulfing candle today. With any help from the overall market, I expect AAPL to test the 188-192 zone in the next day or two, at which time I might exit half of the remaining position, while leave the rest for a possible run to 200.

Also bought GS July 170 put around 169, but closed out for a small gain. This market is becoming very difficult for me to have any convictions.

9 comments:

  1. Hindsight is 20/20.

    Should have know better than to go bottom fishing in DRYS.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRYS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85226061694

    Do you see the cross below 21sma?

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  2. I am long DRYS including buying calls this morning.
    Do your charts tell you the bottom for DRYS ?
    PCA GUY

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  3. pcaguy:
    my ez for drys is 70-78 with stop just below 70, and IT=88, given the current market conditions, I will try to get as low as possible, such as around 75. good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  4. ANR:
    Bot July 95 puts -ANRSS at $10.40
    MEE:
    Bot July 80 puts -MEESP at $8.80
    MOS:
    Bot July 145 puts -MTJSI at $7.8
    AGU:
    Bot July 100 puts -AGUST at $6.7
    GS:
    Bot July 165 calls -GPYGM at $9.35
    DRYS:
    Bot more July $90 calls at $3.40

    PCAGUY

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  5. pcaguy:
    I suppose that if one has a deep pocket like you, buying at current level should be profitable within the coming days.
    I am still unsure that the market has found the intra-day bottom, and I am going to a bit more patient on bottom fishing: I am basically hoping that DOW will test 12000, NASDAQ tests 2410 and SP500 around 1325. we will see....

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  6. Bought some drys @77.70 couldn't resist, still waiting for v puts to hit the zone...

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  7. Thanks Guys. I'm in deep trouble on DRYS right now. Bidding $3.20 on July 90 calls.
    I should have looked closer at the DRYS charts.
    Unlike OIH or GS once DRYS is set in a direction it tends to keep that direction for weeks. Not the best candidate for my overnight trading pattern.
    PCA GUY

    ReplyDelete
  8. DRYS:
    Another $5+ gap down
    Bot July 85 calls at $2.7
    FSLR:
    Bot 15 July 260 puts at $18
    Sorry I sold my FSLR calls yesterday
    FSLR at $265.49 up $12+
    GS:
    Sold -GPYGM calls for $1.64 profit
    ISRG:
    Sold -AXVGV calls for $1 profit
    ACAS:
    Sold -DQSSG puts for $1 profit
    AGU:
    Sold -AGUST puts for $1 profit
    ANR:
    Sold -ANRSS puts for $1.5 profit
    MOS:
    Sold -MTJSI puts for $1 profit
    New Positions:
    BEN:
    Bot July 100 puts at $3.75
    CMI:
    Bot July $70 puts at $3.44
    ABV:
    Bot July $75 puts at $5.2
    FDG:
    Bot July 80 puts at $4.40
    Still holding MEE July 80 puts about break even.
    DRYS:
    Bot July $85 calls at $2.7
    PCA GUY

    ReplyDelete